Ligue 1 betting preview : Valenciennes- Nantes
Valenciennes did us several favours leading up to their disastrous home defeat to Ajaccio at the end of last month, that stalled their momentum and made their survival bid all the more difficult. Before that game my notes read....
"Valenciennes found some form just before the break, which to be honest they could probably have done without, taking buoyant Bordeaux close and then winning 2-1 at Monaco in their last start of 2013, a result which will have given them hope of avoiding the drop, However, it is home form which will likely determine if they are to remain in Ligue 1 for an eighth straight season and four points from safety and with a trip to Marseille, where they have not won in recent times (at least a decade), up next, they need the win this evening. They have improved for their new coach and funds have been released to back him, with the club adding central defender Carl Medjani on loan from Monaco and speedy Majeed Waris from Spartak Moscow. Still only 22 yo, Waris was top Allsvenskan goalscorer in 2012 when with Hacken, 23 goals and 9 assists from 29 starts, in a league where three teams did not manage 32 goals as a club, was a very good tally and he could be good business, both go straight into the squad today. However, this is all about motivation for me and with a little momentum behind them, I favour the home win."
They have taken 13 points from their last five home games and most of those will feel like nothing if they do not get another three this evening. Last week they won a six pointer away to Evian 1-0 , ahead of which I wrote ....
"Valenciennes are missing suspended defensive midfielder David Ducourtioux (23-1-1), they are 1-2-5 when he plays 45 minutes or less and are without a cleansheet in those games, conceding 15 goals in total. This compounds the continued, and now long term absence of Benjamin Angoua and Lindsay Rose in central defence and missing those two and without the protection which Ducourtioux brings to the backline, it is very difficult to see Valenciennnes keeping Evian out for too long. The visitors do have a greatly increased threat now and Waris was an exceptional bit of "window" business."
Waris scored and the clean sheet was fantastic under the circumstances. I do not see team news as overly important , but the hosts do get Ducourtioux back this evening.
They bounced back with a point at Montpellier, but have lost their last two by the minimum margin to Lille and Lyon, who are both battling for a Champions League place, so points there were never going to be easy. However, this looks far easier and with a trip to Guingamp next week, who sit just outside the drop zone and "only" six points ahead of Valenciennes, the scheduler has thrown the hosts one last survival lifeline.
Nantes are safe in mid table and will be pleased that their first season back in Ligue 1 has gone so smoothly, they owe much of that to a fast start, taking 23 points from their first 13 games, just a point per start from the next 20 outings. They are without top scorer Filip Djordjevic (27-10-3) today and have scored just twice in seven starts when he plays 35 minutes or less, with just a single win.
Valenciennes are unfortunately without Majeed Waris today ( see above), if he was playing I would be ultra keen on the home side, normally I say at this stage of the campaign that team news is less important and it is more about motivation and heart, but he has made a big impact since his arrival. However, that means we will get a price and odds might even go up a little later in the day, because of that, also, it is offset by the absence of Djordjevic and it is an opportunity for the front four and this looks an attacking squad for Valenciennes, to shine. I doubt Nantes can play with the same intensity as the home side and with the draw having almost no use, to, well, to either team (certainly not Valenciennes), we will probably see a winner and that gives greater value (IMO) to the straight win (for either team), with the draw "under priced" even within the asian lines. We can talk a little more about this in general terms in midweek, as it will be important over the next few weeks. 1.5 units Valenciennes -0.5 ball 2.10+ asian line/Ibramarket.
Valenciennes:Novaes, Penneteau - Angoua, Ciss, Kagelmacher, Lala, Masuaku, Medjani, Nery - Da Silva, Dossevi, Doumbia, Ducourtioux, Enza-Yamissi, Melikson - Bahebeck, Le Tallec, Nguette, Pujol.
Nantes: Dupé, Riou - Alhadhur, Djidji, Dubois, Veigneau, Vizcarrondo - Bedoya, Deaux, Nicolita, B. Touré, Veretout - Aristeguieta, Audel, Bangoura, Gakpe, Pancrate, Shechter.
Good Luck.