Sample J-League betting preview: Cerezo Osaka- FC Tokyo
My big mistake last week in J-League was leaving out FC Tokyo, after following them for several weeks, notes from their home game with Vegalta Sendai are reproduced below the" good luck " sign off, they won that 3-0 and followed up last week when Shimizu came a calling, 4-0. In both they were three up at the break and could step off the gas in the second period. My reason for not backing them last week was down to value (they were very short in the betting) and also because of the low percentage of home wins this season, something we discussed last week .....
Goals are still hanging around the 2.45 pg mark and home wins are almost at an all time low for this stage of the season at 35.29%, this is between 6.5% and 10% lower for each of the last five seasons at the midway point. Those numbers are , of course, not unrelated and if there are fewer home wins, we can expect fewer goals and vice versa, but is this just a blip and can we expect more of both in the second half of the campaign, or will the trend continue ?
At the moment, I am still leaning towards the former, but with current numbers, more action traditionally taking place after the break and only an average of 3 matches per round ending in home wins, I think we should be very wary of taking low pre match odds about any home team.
Our regular contributor FCT coach Massimo Ficcadenti (pictured) said : "The first half was very similar to the first half of the game against Vegalta Sendai last week in that it was a near flawless performance. We denied the opposition space almost entirely, kept a compact shape yet attacked aggressively and pressed hard despite the extreme heat. We showed great quality in the chances we created and it was very pleasing to score three times. After we scored the fourth goal the opposition had a couple of dangerous counter attacks and shots from distance but it was our game overall. I'm very satisfied with the bravery and confidence the players are showing right now and want it to continue".
Key Stat: Cerezo are unbeaten at home in the FH ( 3-6-0), FCT are unbeaten on the road (2-6-0), good chance for a first half draw I suppose, encouragingly for us, the hosts have not won one of those six draws after the break and dropped points in two of the three in which they led !
Good Luck.
FC Tokyo- Vegalta Sendai (written 27/07)
We discussed FCT a lot before the break when they were a mixture of unplayable and unwatchable ! It is a little pointless reproducing those notes, as like FCT and wildly optimistic coach Massimo Ficcadenti, whom I must admit to having a soft spot for, they are hugely unpredictable. However, I am sure they will get it right and they will be buoyed by scoring 8 goals in the Emperors Cup last weekend, it was little more than target practice and form in those matches means little, but it can only be positive. The hosts will be all out for the three points and Antlers really cannot play any other way, with the visitors already having scored a J-League high 16 road goals and posted five away wins.
FCT have served us OK on the road with the draw no ball option and this is a venue where they tend to do well, scoring on their last 7 visits , including winning the last two with a 5-0 goal difference and I like their chances of a hat-trick.
FCT have dominated this series and are 6-1-0 in the last seven h2h meetings in the capital, with five cleans sheets and only conceded in two very big wins ( 4-1, 6-2), they will be without striker Edu today, who is suspended after his latest yellow card in midweek, but they are creating plenty of chances from their midfield and it is not an overriding concern for me, Vegalta look vulnerable defensively right now, they were unable to win despite leading three times in midweek when they were largely gifted all three goals by slipshod defending and were themselves very slow to the second ball and to close players down. Coach Ficcadenti watches a lot of the opposition and is sure to have picked up on this.
1.25 units FC Tokyo -0.5 ball 1.97 asian line/Sportmarket.
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