UEFA Champions League betting preview Zenit St Petersburg- AEL Limassol

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UEFA Champions League: Zenit St Petersburg- AEL Limassol

Zenit love to make things very difficult for themselves in the Champions League, progressing through the group stage last year, despite not winning at home, was kind of typical and they blew their round of 16 game with Borussia Dortmund within five minutes of their first leg home tie, when they were already 2-0 down. That defeat cost coach Luciano Spalletti his job, the Zenit board had been quite patient with him, as they have never really kicked on in the premier competion after their UEFA Cup win. He was replaced by Andre Villas-Boas and I suspect he was will not get as long to prove himself and making the group stage will surely be a minimum requirement, anything else and serious questions will be asked. We discussed the second leg against Dortmund in a little detail ...........

Dortmund taught Zenit a bit of a lesson in the first leg , they came out flying, raced into a two goal lead inside five minutes and never let the home side settle, it was a hugely professional performance and one which cost home boss Luciano Spalletti  his job. It is rare to be replaced between legs, but they wanted a replacement in as soon as possible and that man is Luís André de Pina Cabral e Villas-Boas, AVB to you and me. Spalletti is well respected and will not be out of work long, he has already been touted for the Tottenham job, although quite what Spurs fans will think of the coach who has been replaced by the one they recently sacked taking over at WHL, is anyone's guess, not much I suspect !

Ahead of the first leg I wrote ...

"Zenit are old favourites of mine and I put them up on the old GOWI blog at circa 29.0 to win the UEFA Cup in 2008....was that really six years ago !
 
To be honest, I am a little surprised they have not kicked on in the premier competition, but they have only made it through the group stage once previously and have shot themselves in the foot on several occasions. They qualified this year with a record low number of points (six) , but the squad and coach, Luciano Spalletti, who made such a big name for himself in Italy with Udinese and Roma, are much better than that. Spalletti played without a striker long before Barcelona did, we could argue all day about whether it was a 4-6-0 formation , or 4-5-1-0, but is no disputing three things, that there was no front man, it was a revelation and really fun to watch. At times over the last few seasons Zenit have done likewise and their games are always interesting tactically.
 

When they made it to the last 16 two years ago, they beat a strong Benfica side 3-2 at home (it could have been more), but the away goals were too much and they were always up against it in the return leg. It is very hard to see them upsetting Dortmund over the two legs, this is just the wrong time of year for them, they have not played a competitive match in months and their season doesn't restart until next month. However, they are incredibly motivated today and will be busting a gut to at least ensure they go to Dortmund still alive in the tie."

AVB will have had no time with the team or input in this game and will not actually meet the squad, or be officially presented until tomorrow, but the players will surely be out to impress the new coach.

There was no immediate improvement results wise, for the caretaker boss at the weekend , with Zenit losing 1-0 in Moscow to CSKA, but they were denied by the woodwork early and a wonder save late and deserved something from the game, after a very strong first half performance.

This tie is over of course, even 2-0 is not enough for Zenit , but they will strip fitter now after three competitive games and Danny (17-10-7 Premier Liga), Aleksandr Kerzhakov (10-4-2 Champions League) and goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev are all available to start now, giving them greater and fitter options. I never feel the high pressing game of Dortmund which unsettled Zenit in the first leg is as effective at home in Europe and the hosts will be mindful of games ahead and we have discussed recently the pragmatic approach of most German clubs and coaches. They are not going to get any extra out of a 2-0, as opposed to 1-0 win, is what I mean. I do feel Zenit will score tonight, so Borussia would need three to cover the handicap and with games against Hannover and closest challenger for second place ,Schalke ,to play in the next six days, I do not feel they will be exactly busting a gut to do so.

They have one or two players returning from knocks, others who cannot afford to pick up yellow cards and for a major player, do not have a lot of top quality cover in certain areas, so could ill afford injuries. I expect a fairly cautious approach from them, so, probably  2-0 after six minutes this time !! I like the visitors with the handicap start.
 

They restored some pride with a 2-1 win in Germany, but later in the season, blew a lead at the top of Premier Liga with two rounds remaining and lost out in the title race to CSKA by a single point, which meant an early CL start this year. They lost the first leg 1-0 in Cyprus, after dominating the entire game, despite playing the last 25 minutes + with ten men, they won the shot count 22-3 , were denied by the woodwork and on another day, might, perhaps should, have won, by 2-3 goals. Now they need to turn this tie on it's head at home and they should certainly strip fitter, after not only the first leg, but also opening their domestic campaign with a 4-0 road win over Arsenal Tula at the weekend and I think it was very important that key offensive players Salomon Rondon and Hulk both scored, as they will be the duo expected to fire them to a resounding victory this evening. Italian international defender Domenico Criscito scored the other two and Danny will have felt aggrieved he did not get on the team sheet after going close and also hitting the woodwork. That was promising and one goal ,goals are like money, the first (million) is always the hardest (!), should be followed by a second and if the visitors can be forced out of their game plan and defensive mind set, the space will open up and others can follow. Huge gulf in class and I do not conside the loss of suspended Axel Witsel to be overly important, following his dismissal in Cyprus. AEL are not a big player, even in purely Cypriot terms and have only won one league title in 46 years, or trophy of any sort in 25, they are still a couple of weeks away from their domestic campaign starting and there is an advantage now in terms of real match fitness for Zenit and a massive one talent wise. I do have to admit to a huge soft spot for the hosts, GOWI ,as it was at the time, followers won huge on them in that UEFA Cup win and whilst it was  a long time ago, I always feel I have a good understanding of where we are with them and despite the loss in the first leg, I feel they look decent this season.
 
1.75 units Zenit St Petersburg -2 goals 1.88 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

Good Luck.

 
 
 

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