There is a Serie B playoff game both today (7 Carpi- 3 Frosinone) and tomorrow (5 Benevento-4 Perugia) in Italy, I am adopting the normal approach to these, which is to wait for the return leg, as they are usually the more open, clear cut ties. Highest placed team plays on the road in the first leg and they have tended to dominate, at least in terms of there being only 3 home wins in the last ten ties (and only one in the last four seasons....8 games), with also 80% going UNDER, with four of the last six home teams failing to score. Actually, the games featuring the 7th-3rd and 5th -4th teams ( three of each) have been the closest, splitting a 1X and 2 in each, which further clouds the issue, they should be low scoring, but we can hold off and wait for the second legs.

 

Japan J-League

 

Saturday: Shimizu S-Pulse- Yokohama F. Marinos

 

Chalk meets cheese in Shimizu with SSP, who favour an open game and who have conceded 23 times in ten starts, hosting miserly Yokohama whos last 10 have averaged just 1.9 goals per game, but then, they don't play Pulse every day ! Marinos have a good record in this fixture losing just once in ten visits, keeping six clean sheets and winning the last four, amazingly scoring 10 goals in the process.
 

SSP are back in the top flight after one year in JL2, they conceded 65 goals in that relegation season and all games averaged over 3, those issues have not been addressed and it feels like another long season in the offering, but they are fun to watch, can also score themselves and should be safe and JL1 needs teams like them.

Marinos are a team who should improve from here on in, they bought in several new players from Europe including  Portuguese front man Hugo Vieira and former Barcelona youth player David Babunski both arriving from Red Star Belgrade, plus Australian defender Milos Degenek from Stuttgart. It was always going to take time to gel , but recent reports have been good and Vieira will be pushing for a start after scoring to cup goals in midweek. Winger Manabu Saitohas remained after getting plenty of attention last season and they are probably better than the league table suggests.

I think that Marinos will win, but as a long term policy, regrdless of opposition, you cannot let odds of 2.0 + for "over" in SSP games go unbacked and the three games I have opted for today all have a similar feel.

 

1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket.
 

Scottish FA Cup Final: Celtic- Aberdeen

 

I previewed Aberdeen's last game of the season a trip to Partick Thistle and touched upon how well they had played in a 3-1 home loss to Celtic in a final rehearsal played just 15 days ago.............

Partick Thistle-Aberdeen, visitors have had a good season and have comfortably secured second place, cementing that with a 2-1 win at Ibrox over third placed Rangers on Wednesday. I watched their 3-1 loss at home to Celtic nine days ago and was really impressed, they were three down inside 11 minutes and many lesser teams would have folded, but they not only kept battling, but pulled a goal back and played really well. Partick cannot change their league position, so only have pride to play for, like the Dons I guess, but they already feel on holiday and have not won in five. Also they played on Thursday, at home to Celtic and lost 5-0, 24 hours less recovery time with such a quick turnaround is huge and Thistle do not, right now, look up to playing the two best teams in the country back to back inside three days under such conditions. Hosts are also without several key players. Aberdeen will have to play with next week's cup final in mind and I assume rotate, but have significantly better options and I expect them to win this "friendly" with some ease.
 

They won that 6-0. were three up almost instantly and five ahead at the half and it was an incredibly easy win and fantastic warm up game. Of course, now they face the best that Scotland has to offer and as good as Dons have been, Celtic finished 30 points above them in the SPL compiling a 34-4-0 record and scoring 106 goals ! The Hoops have won the last six h2h meetings, but Aberdeen feel they have got progressively closer and I saw some evidence of that in the most recent meeting.
 

This is played on a neutral ground of course, at Hampden Park, but if we look at the last ten meetings between the two in Glasgow, Celtic's home, the champions have won 9 , Dons just won, but the visiting side scored in 8 , two or more in four , with all averaging 4.3 goals per game. Plenty there and from the game just two weeks ago to suggest the Dons can score one or two. Six of the last seven finals have produced at least three goals and only one of the last 25 (!) have gone to extra time. 4-1 /3-2 feels about right, I am tempted by Aberdeen to score 2 or more at 4.33, but will stick with ............