Australian Open tennis : Milos Raonic- Rafael Nadal

 

Rafa leads the h2h 6-2, but is 1-2 in the last three which all came on hardcourts and the most recent was in build up to this event in Brisbane when Raonic hit 23 aces, but also won more points on return. Speaking about that match and ahead to this he said : "Then I thought I had it pretty handily after that point. "I broke towards the end of that second set. "Broke right away in the third. "Had a lot of Love-30 games. "Had a lot of break chances following after that, holding quite easy."I found that tipping, sort of turning point, that I was looking for in that match. "Obviously it's very within me to find those solutions again, I believe."

Nadal's career has been in decline and injury hit in recent camapaigns and this will be his first slam fast court quarter final in two years, Raonic is playing his third in 12 months. The Canadian is now ranked #3 and whilst there are still big question marks over him regarding winning a major tournament, that is not an overriding issue at this stage and Rafa is 4-13 in his last 17 hard court starts against top 5 ranked players.
 

Raonic is in his third straight Melbourne quarter final and it has taken an increasingly strong performance to stop him at the AO, he lost to Djokovic the eventual champion in 2015 and led Andy Murray 2-1 in the semis last year.
 

I have concerns about Rafa, who has been a tough, wonderful and uncompromising champion for many years, it is the last of those which worries me. He has spent long, long hours in the gym and you can argue has been too muscular, which has not helped with injury (look at his body shape compared to Djokovic and Federer) and his inability to play any point other than as if his life were on the line is both endearing, yet hard to comprehend and not conducive to the longest career at the very highest level. Roger Federer has commented on this too and admitted that sometimes he did not play every point at full intensity and that has allowed him to extend his own shelf life ! Nadal has played nine sets and seven hours in winning his last two matches here and in Week 2 away from his beloved clay, I think that will take a toll.
 

Raonic has been nursing a heavy cold at these championships but said he felt better in his last start and now two days on, should be fitter still, in that win over Roberto Bautista Agut he served 33 aces and said afterwards that he served "poorly" and that there was improvement to come ! Already ultra aggressive, that will step up a notch in 2017 with the appointment of former Wimbledon champion Richard Krajicek to the coaching team. Similar in some ways, Krajicek was famous for his play at the net and Raonic has made just shy of 100 net approaches in his last two matches and he is going to be aggressive from both the baseline and increasingly the net from here on in. I could agree with this as a "flip" , so all the value for me is with the Canadian at 2.20 +.