Championship:Norwich City- Preston North End
Preston did us a couple of favours in midweek with a 3-1 defeat of highflying Huddersfield Town ..........
Lots of notes on the home side recently and my preview ahead of a very difficult trip to Brighton at the weekend is reproduced below the "good luck" sign off( edit: see Wednesday email). That finished 2-2, a very creditable draw at a tough venue. Since that 5-0 hammering at Brentford they have three wins and two draws against decent opposition and that includes three very difficult road games, also scoring twice in each of their last three starts. They were down to ten men when equalising late at the AmEx, after picking up an injury when they had already made their three subs, they were playing with four upfront at the death and got their just reward for gambling when short handed, but Brighton must feel they threw away two points. Still not sure about Preston and it is hard for me to see them any better than lower mid table, but perhaps they have a little more about them than I thought.
Town are coming off a derby loss to Sheffield Wednesday on Sunday, where they also lost their 100% home record and confidence will have taken a blow. Wednesday are good and did a real "job" on the Terriers, completely stifling them and there would have been a lot for North End to learn from that. Town expend a lot of energy with an incredibly high tempo pressing game, which is very different from how they looked last season, they started the campaign on fire and were well prepared from the off. I understand they worked very hard in the summer, far more than is usual, lots of double sessions and they were desperate to start the season well, which they did and have, if that worked it was always likely to produce dividends early, but I am not sure how well they will see out 46 games and I am certain this is the one (current) top six side we can make good money by opposing when the time is right.
Not 100% sure that is tonight, but PNE boss Simon Grayson was formerly in charge of Town and will have been watching them closely and know what they are all about. His team is in form, scoring goals and has 24 hours longer rest ahead of this game, which might have additional inmportance given how the visitors play. I think we will see goals and that the hosts are also a little underpriced. PNE have won the last three h2h meetings at Deepdale including 2-1 last season and Town' s next start after a defeat this season have all produced three goals (all 2-1 wins).
Town have issues and I would probably have opposed them today against anyone other than Derby County today, but Steve McClaren has a lot of work to do with the Rams and they are struggling too and goals are very hard to come by for them, but I digress. What we know about PNE is that they are full of goals right now and playing with huge confidence , two up early in midweek, they were very comfortable winners. We know that Norwich will be all out for the three points to keep them top two, but equally that they will give the visitors chances.The Canaries play a gung-ho style here at Carrow Road, something we often talk about and my notes ahead of a recent visit from Burton Albion read ...........
Briefly, I expect both teams to score and probably Norwich to edge home 2-1/3-2/3-1, something like that. Burton have adapted quite well to life in the Championship, have 9 points on board and only five teams have scored more goals. They are not afraid to take the game to teams and have scored in all four road games and conceded in all nine competitive starts. They are not really operating on a level Championship playing field, with a low budget and determined to stay within their means, they will need as many points as they can collect early season. They were playing non league football seven yeras ago and they have come a very long way in a short time and that almost always catches up with teams, unless they have the backing and that almost always means finances, to stay one step ahead of the game. This is a tough unrelenting league and it will be difficult for the Brewers to survive. That is for another day, for now, this is all still new and wonderful and they will enjoy their trip to Carrow Road.
I discussed Norwich and their game with Wigan in the Friday notes and how they allowed the Latics back into a game they should have run away with. The Canaries are amongst the favourites for promotion and will be there or thereabouts, but have conceded in their last three home starts and in 6 of their last 7 home starts in their Championship promotion camapign, the season before last. They can be devastating at this level when things click, but the crowd here urges them forward a little too often at times and they can lose their way in games and Albion will get opportunities, both to score @ 2.0-2.05 looks good, but easier to back is "over".
They won that 3-1 and also beat basement club Rotherham by the same scoreline in their only subsequent home game. A repeat or threepeat is not impossible, but North End are also capable of stealing something here , but that would be more likely to be 2-2, which has been the score in their last two road games. Goals !
1.75 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.15 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
