clubgowi new subscriber update ......

Jun 17, 2015
football betting tips -

 

I write to new subscribers a few days after they first sign up to the newsletter service with a more detailed explanation of the notes, how they are set out, what to expect to see and how to perhaps get more out of the newsletter . It covers quite a lot (not everything) , but answers most questions new subscribers ask and also looks at a few misconceptions about the service. Anyway, I thought some of you might enjoy a look at what is not very imaginatively called the clubgowi "new subscriber update".......

 

Hi,
 
Now that you have had a short time as a subscriber, I wanted to bring a couple of things to your attention, which should make a little more sense now, than they might have done a day or so ago, these notes are a little lengthy, but they might answer any questions you have currently, or which might crop up over the coming weeks.
 
The odds I use for asian handicap lines are always the SBOBET quote, which is the last thing I check before posting the newsletter. I take this from the Sportmarket  website, they are clubgowi's sponsor, but not one I need, or choose to blindly promote and I should point out, that in almost nine years + of writing the blog/website/newsletter, I have only ever tried to sell/promote two products, of which they are one. So, you can be sure that Sportmarket are a brand I trust and in Sportmarket Pro, they have a wonderful product.
 
Sportmarket Pro offer access to all the major asian handicap companies (inc  SBO, IBC, Pinnacle and ISN), plus betting exchanges Matchbook and Betfair and the odds on there will always be bigger at the time the email is sent, unless SBOBET are already top quote.

You can read all about Sportmarket Pro on this link which includes screencasts of the product in action and also about my personal experience of using it, in an "old" website article.

Which brings me to the next point, odds will almost always drop on smaller markets immediately after the email is sent, that doesn't mean they are gone for good and that you should just take any price offered, or go to the other extreme and not bet at all. There are options to consider/look at first, but not betting is always preferable to taking a poor value quote.

Whilst not an exact science,there are guidelines about where I pitch the value line relating to odds and staking, which you can find on the "How Everything Works" article on the subscriptions page of the clubgowi website. That article is a bit dated now, but is ok to use as a basic guideline.

The asian market is a see saw, they are trying to balance a book, it will of course react when there is money for just one team in any game, but especially so on quiet days, at busy periods like Saturday/Sunday, when we are betting Premier/Championship and other major leagues, the reaction is usually far less severe.

As soon as the money stops, the price levels out and after any action on the other side, will creep back up, on many leagues the asian companies also further reduce their profit margins during the hour or so leading up to kick off and odds should then again edge up and many times the original odds, or very close, are available.

You have the option to bet, or not to bet, to look again later in the day, or to bet early "in running" (obviously a better option with - handicap bets, or "overs") and it is worth noting that across all leagues we cover, only around 7% of games see a goal inside the opening 10 minutes, so this is a viable option, one I and many subscribers use.
 

I place 90% of my own bets in running and I can assure you that very often morning quotes and even above, are available within a minute or two of games starting.
There are options, I guess my basic point is that not everyone has to bet at 10.00 UK time.

I would like everyone to read the previews, you do not have to do so immediately upon delivery if you do not want, but the content is worth at least as much as the bottom line (red type) IMO and will repay reading. The reasoning behind this thinking is explained here , by just blindly following the selections you will probably make a long term profit, but never get as much out of the service.

With regard to the layout and make up of the newsletter.......

Everything under the "good luck" sign off is a complete preview from an earlier newsletter, anything within a preview in purple type(not even sure what this colour is to be honest) is part of an earlier write up.

Red type selections are clubgowi official picks and are all that appear in any basic stats you might ever get to see, which go back to January 2013, there are results for free to view content stretching way back to early 2006, but nowadays only about 8% of clubgowi output is FTV, there is a little more about this in a recent website article.

 
Since January 2015, there have also been blue type "suggestions", these are not "official" selections, but do now carry a stake and allow us to look at more games/events and from a different angle , these will often be "in running" advice and frequently more adventurous picks. I will keep and occasionally publish "numbers" for these too, but only because someone will ask and if I say no, there will be all sorts of accusations and much jumping to the wrong conclusion. Whilst not "official", I do not really regard these as lesser bets, especially the ones where I like the team and line, but just want to hold out for a slightly higher quote. I expect the value of these suggestions to become more and more apparent over the coming 12 months and the format and criteria to be fine tuned throughout the year.
 
Main clubgowi leagues are England (all 4 divisions), France (L1 and L2), Spain and Italy in the "winter", MLS, J-League and Brazilian football in the "summer", in addition, we cover the PGA Tour event almost every Sunday, about six tennis tournaments per year and NFL football. We do have some long term bets, usually only English football , golf and maybe NFL, these equate to only around 1%-1.5% of yearly turnover.
 
My best sports percentage wise, have always been the NFL, WTA tennis and PGA golf, but of course, football is the newsletter's bread and butter, my best performing leagues over the last three years, in no particular order, have been J-League, MLS, Ligue 2, EPL and the Championship, but long term and we might have different ideas about what "long term" means, there are no real leaks, all leagues have done  reasonably well, but as you might expect, what might be a high performing league one year, might dip the following season, or vice versa. I do not want to spoon feed you everything, you can and should make up your own mind, if there is a league you do not like, just avoid it, but I am not going to ditch a league where I have performed well for over a decade because of a poor few months, that would be crazy IMO ! There are very likely to be 2,000+ newsletter previews in 2015 and this allows you to be as selective as you wish.
 
clubgowi is a 52 week per year service, there are on average 10-11 newsletters per week and all are scheduled in advance.I am pretty punctual with sending times and my window is 15 minutes, if I say 10.00 UK time and you do not have it by 10.15, please contact me asap. Normally it will be no more than 3-4 minutes "late", if I ever look likely to miss the "window", I will almost always advise before the deadline, but just in case, feel free to contact me. However, It is always wise to just check your spam folder first, I do not know how, but very occasionally they do find their way there..........emails sometime have a life of their own !

I do have losing periods, of course I do, anyone who says otherwise is fooling themselves or trying to hoodwink others, but whilst nothing in gambling is guaranteed , I have "always" made good returns long term and I am talking about year, after year and over a far longer period than the nine years that I have been active online.

I can tell you that in 2013 our worst "official" run was between Nov 22-Dec 14 which was -25.5 points, there were two other dips -17 units (between July 10-20) and just shy of -14 (June 1-14), there were no other 10 + units periods, or that I could find on a quick look, it is not something I normally keep record of, but I looked in answer to an interview question. You can see these dips in the graph (if you have good eyesight) on the results page of the clubgowi website. You will also notice that despite these, the trend is always upwards over the longer term. I can also tell you that in each of the three previous years, 2010-2012 , June and July were my best two months in each year, so do not think we are weak in the summer months, in truth, exactly the opposite is true.

Last year (2014) was not a classic, most subscribers I spoke to did reasonably well, but we had two very poor runs in the second half of the year and they made a dent in the yearly returns. One of those could be expected, two so close together is unusual (both were roughly minus 22 units), they are usually followed by an upturn in fortune shortly afterwards, but big swings are possible and you should always bear that in mind. clubgowi is meant as a service for grown ups, gambling is a serious business and what you choose to bet, just like what you do in life, is your own personal decision.

The newsletter is not for everyone, but I can tell you that most long term subscribers stay with the service, more than 91% of six month sign ups renew and of those that do not, many return later. Also, when I offered a subscription extention at slightly reduced rates at the end of 2013, the response was overwhelming and 27% of all subscribers added the maximum (18 months) which says more about the service than ROI or results could ever do. Response was largely similar at the end of 2014, for what is now the annual "low cost" renewal (or extension) offer to existing subscribers and many who already had long term deals, are now signed up deep into 2016 and quite a few until late 2017.

Whether you will end up a short term visitor or long term subscriber to clubgowi, I hope that you have found something of interest in the daily notes and that, if it is not for you, that you will continue to follow us, via the website and social media pages in the future. Either way, as always, I wish you good luck !

Kind regards,
Keith
clubgowi

 

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