You can read today's clubgowi subscriber notes below. I wanted you to get a rare opportunity to see the full newsletter , it is not the busiest day, Sunday's are often far more active, but it will do and give you a good idea of the format and make up.
By the way, anything in this colour type is reproduced from a previous preview, anything below the "good luck" sign off is a full preview from earlier notes, the idea of each is to provide background information. You kind of need access to everything for it all to make sense, for example I refer in the content below to notes in a "Thursday email", it all ties in for subscribers.
I am trying to give them something to think about and not just for the day of game, with Flamengo below I picked up on them as underperforming and a big potential improver ahead of their recent game with Ponte Preta, at the time they were 1-4-1, they are 4-1-0 ( all competitions) subsequently.
This is a quality comprehensive service unlike any other and that is why it is "expensive" and subscribers pay as much as 1.6€ per newsletter !!! By the way, for news of a really good deal and even cheaper way to sign up to clubgowi, email me asap at firstname.lastname@example.org
Kashima Antlers won 3-2 in the morning J-League game, but the result of that, or any of the other suggestions today doesn't really matter, long term, results will take care of themselves as long as we are basically making correct decisions and we have been doing that for well over 11 years online and far longer off it.
Good luck !
Next newsletter will be sent @ 10.00 UK time on Monday.
I have included golf notes in this newsletter, small bet , big price !
Kashiwa Reysol - Kashima Antlers
Ahead of a trip to Saitama to play Urawa Reds early in May I touched upon Kashima Antlers' standing amongst the best of the best in JL1 football , how they had Urawa's number and perhaps most importantly, how they appeared to step up a level last season, maybe to beyond anything we have seen from a Japanese team for some time................
I think that most would accept that these are two of the big 3 clubs in Japanese football, they went toe to toe last season, each winning a Stage of J-League and Antlers winning the Championship series on the away goal rule, courtesy of a 2-1 win here in Saitama in front of a crowd of 60,000 back in December. Antlers went on to complete the domestic double by winning the Emperor's Cup and inbetween, announced themselves on the international stage by taking Real Madrid into extra time in the World Club Cup final, with Ronaldo scoring twice in additional time to complete his (yet another) hat-trick. That was a major breakthrough for Antlers and they came into this campaign as the team to beat.
Kashima started where they finished with a 3-2 Super Cup win over Urawa, who must be sick of the sight of them. Antlers seem to play with the full season in mind and to raise their game when they have to, I spoke about this last year, when their form appeared to dip through second stage games when they did not need to win and there were far, far bigger games and targets on the horizon. Both they and Reds have qualified already, with one group stage game left to play, for the knockout stage of the AFC Champions League and for today, it can just be about JL1 and domestic football. Reds lead the league by a single point after losing their derby game with a dreadfully out of form Omiya Ardija on Sunday, but dominated the game. Antlers are in third, also just a point back after beating Sagan Tosu 2-1, I previewed that game on Saturday, Kashima also hit the woodwork, but played within themselves once ahead, with today very much on the agenda and in their minds. Two very good teams, but for me, Antlers have the mental edge and just have that extra gear when it really matters in the key fixtures. Urawa will keep their lead over Antlers with a point and I believe that will be their priority and I feel the draw is the most likely outcome.
Antlers have scored on their last nine visits (which are split evenly 3-3-3), but with the visitor winning the last two meetings. It feels like all the pressure is on Urawa, who need a result in this series and with the onus on them to attack in their own stadium, that has not worked out well in recent h2h games , Reds are happier against teams who are fearful and sit back and that is most definitely not Kashima Antlers.
Two months ago Reds did not look the cannon fodder they appear at present, they were top of the table and were scoring goals for fun, which made Antlers ultra professional 1-0 win all the more impressive. I spoke of Kashima often last season as a team who played with the full regular season campaign and beyond in mind at all times and they always seemed to be at their very best for the biggest fixtures. That will have to be the case today as they travel to leaders Kashiwa Reysol, especially as Urawa, Yokohama and Gamba won yesterday and they cannot afford to potentially lose ground to all the teams around/above then in the table. Visitors are pretty close to full strength, have avoided defeat on 6 of 10 trips here and will see this as amongst their most important fixtures of the season, I expect a very committed showing.
1.5 units Kashima Antlers -0.25 ball 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket.
Flamengo have served us very well in the last two weeks and ahead of a trip to Bahia last week I wrote .........
There is a lot of reproducing of previous notes in this email, so for ease of reading, you can see my write ups on Chapecoense in the Thursday (22nd June) newsletter, their trip to Flamengo was the only match previewed that day and was extensively covered. I have been writing a lot about the very open nature of their games , both home and away and very little changed in that 5-1 defeat, with lots of chances in the game, 19 attempts inside the box in total, with the Chape goalkeeper earning MOTM plaudits with six saves and Fla also hitting the woodwork. Chapecoense will be without one of their starting defensive midfielders today and they are in an increasingly bad moment defensively, but have a continued offensive threat, which has not manifested itself in goals in their last two starts, but that will only continue for so long. This season, their games are averaging 3.56 goals per game, which is 1.06 above the league average and their last four completed games with AMG ( all comps) have all gone "over" including a 2-2 draw here earlier this year.
Obviously a lot of notes on Flamengo in that Thursday email too and focussing on their potential, how they have been playing increasingly better and the return from injury of many players. The win over Chapecoense was a big confidence boost, they could have scored 7-8 and they will travel to Bahia in high spirits. The hosts' form has dipped significantly after a solid start to life back in the top flight, taking just one point from four games and failing to score in three of those and conceding four goals at home to Palmeiras (see above) in the other. That dip has coincided with the increase in games which is hardly surprising and they lost 3-0 at leaders Corinthians in midweek, tiring badly after both teams played 30+ minutes with ten men, both teams have suspensions to deal with today, but Bahia have fewer top quality options, were the promoted team with the fewest points last season and the loss of super competitive defensive midfielder Rene Junior, against a team as strong in the middle as Flamengo, will be hard felt. Palmeiras, Corinthians and now Fla inside a week is about as tough a schedule as you will see in Serie A and Bahia seem likely to pay for it again today, after conceding seven times in the first two of those.
They won that 1-0 and followed up in the Copa do Brasil in midweek with a convincing 2-0 win over Santos. In that "Thursday" preview I focussed on the treatment room clearing for Famengo and that they have as much quality as any team in Brazil yet, up to that point they had just been misfiring in front of goal. The ball is running a little more kindly now and the hosts can continue to push on.
Sao Paulo have taken just two points from five starts and two of just three wins for them this season have come against bottom 3 teams, they have gone backwards over the last couple of seasons, only won 7 of their first 23 starts in 2016 and look in similarly poor shape this time round, with few attempts on target and even riding their luck for one or two of the (relatively) few points they have collected. They are coming off a 1-1 home draw with Fluminense where the visitors, hit the woodwork and had twice as many attempts on target. Two teams moving in opposite directions and with very different targets for the season. Home win.
1.5 units Flamengo -1 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket .
The hosts are not exactly know for their free scoring expansive nature, but the league leaders have played out a couple of shoot outs against Vasco and Sao Paulo and their games have been a little more open at times than scorelines suggest and if the opposition are prepared to open up and go for it, then on a good day, Corinthians can be hoodwinked into following suit. Even if not, the home side have offensive potential and this is a match which should produce goals with Botafoga open and defensively suspect, you can read all about that in my preview of their own game with Vasco from 11 days ago, which is reproduced below in full. They won that 3-1.
Botafogo have had a stupidly busy week even by Serie A standards, they hosted Avai on Monday and lost 2-0 and then went to Atletico Mineiro on Thursday and played a Copa do Brasil quarter final first leg, losing 1-0 and this will be their fourth start in ten days. They rotated of course, but eight played in both midweek games and with a smaller squad than many other of the stronger teams and with a Copa Libertadores match in four days time, it is easy to see them playing their open style today, but focus quickly switching to the upcoming fixture. Last ten h2h meetings here in SP have averaged 3.0 goals with Botafogo scoring in nine, three times in three of those. Goals but it has to be a home win also.
1.5 units Corinthians -1 ball 2.03 asian line/Sportmarket.
1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.19 asian line/Sportmarket.
PGA Tour: Quicken Loans National
Briefly, no disrespect, but not a lot of PGA cream at the top of the leaderboard.
The leader David Lingmerth has won once on Tour and in a decent event, in a playoff from a good player, but has also lost two other playoffs and is perhaps not the guy we want on our side if this gets very close down the line, as it seems likely to. Summerhapys, Levin and Sung Kan are all in their 30's without a win.
Geoff Ogilvy is an old favourite and was close to the top of the game for a few years in 2006-10, but is 40 now and has won just once since and has been competitive very infrequently. The one who is unencumbered by any negative thoughts from losing or being a non winner is Curtis Luck, now, would you sooner back someone called Luck, or another called "sunken" (Sung Kan), let's stay positive and go for some luck !
The 20 yo Aussie was the #1 ranked amateur player in the world when he turned pro earlier in the year, he gave up invitations to the US Open and Open championship to do so and today feels like payback time ! This is the first time he has been in contention, having had some bad luck, including getting food poisoning shortly after turning pro and before his first start at the "big show".
Luck played with both Jason Day and Rory McIlroy in build up to the Masters and his countryman said :“He reminds me of me growing up, because ... he obviously turned pro at a young age. "If he’s mature enough, which I think he is, he’s ready for it.“He’s not afraid, which is a good thing and at such a young age, to have maturity and not be afraid is a lethal combination. “ The Ulsteman added: “Curtis' game is good." I think one of the big things that will stick with him, he seems very chilled, very like flat liner. "Nothing really fazes him. "It didn't seem like anything fazed him out there.“His golf game is good and he hits it plenty far enough. "He's very consistent. "I didn't really see any weaknesses there.”
Luck was very laid back and comfortable in post R3 interview, he spoke about how demanding the course is off the tee which keeps him focussed and he feels it really suits his game. He spoke about the back nine holes in some detail, he said when he arrived he felt they looked "brutal", but after playing them for three days in competition, he realises they fully play to his strengths and he is -8 for them this week, which I am pretty sure is the best in the field (no time to check), but with -7 the leading score, that is probably the case, he played them in at least -2 each day and if he can stay in touch until then (currently three off the lead), he can post a low score which might be tough to catch. I priced him at way less that the current odds, but have to admit that there is a lot of guesswork involved, however, far better IMO to take a chance on someone who is a proven winner, albeit in another sphere of the game and carrying so little "baggage", than far shorter priced players who have struggled to get over the line.
0.5 units each way ( 1 unit staked) Curtis Luck 21.0-26.0 general quote 1/4 odds 123 places.
Botafogo- Vasco da Gama (written June 21st)
Not a lot of luck for us over the weekend, I went "over" on Chapecoense- Botafogo
on Sunday ......
I have spoken several times now about "open" the new Chapecoense have been this season and that oddsmakers had been slow to notice and we have taken advantage of that, most recently in their 2-1 home defeat of Vasco da Gama, where I highlighted how offensively good they have been in a 3-2 defeat at Ponte Preta a few days earlier, those notes are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off in full. They were again good on the front foot versus Vasco, 17 attempts, 10 on target, 10 inside the box, 8 saves . Defensively they are not quite at the same level, they have conceded 11 times, the most of any team in the top 9 and tonight, will be without suspended central defender Luiz Otavio, which will not help.
Botafogo are struggling a little defensively and are coming off back to back 2-2 draws with Coritba (home) and Vitoria (road) and neither are exactly full of goals averaging 1.17 and 0.5 goals per game respectively otherwise. They can play their part in another open encounter and why not, a third 2-2 draw ! Chape have scored twice exactly in their last three h2h meetings with Botafogo.
Not sure how that didn't finish 2-1, or at least produce 3+, Botafogo did their part scoring twice inside the opening 55 minutes, Chape had three times the number of attempts (21) were denied by six saves and some poor finishing and on another day would have scored 2+ themselves, if you did not watch the game, don't hunt for highlights unless you have a masochistic streak ! On top of everything else, Botafogo had a breakaway chance late in the game, which seemed destined to result in a goal and the ball just appears to swerve away from the post at the last moment, I have watched it maybe 30 times and think it is going in on each occasion !
What you would see from those highlights is some (very) poor defending from both teams. Vasco were actually the last side to visit Chape............
Today they host Vasco da Gama who are of a similar ilk, in that their games are averaging 4.0 goals and they have conceded a Serie A 15 times, but are 3/3 at home, 0/3 on the road. I do not have a lot of notes on them yet, but ahead of their seasonal opener, I spoke about the size of the club and that they had some seasoned veteran prolific scorers in their squad ..............
Teams rise and fall very quickly in Serie A, competition is tough and it is not difficult to go straight from champion to relegation candidate, Palmeiras played in B in 2013 and were top flight champions three years later and Vasco who are of the biggest clubs in Brazil were second in the top flight in 2011, 5th in 2012 and relegated the next season, they have actually spent two of the last three campaigns in B, but were promoted at the first attempt each time. I assume that this time round they will be looking for stability and a fast start will aid that, with a very heavy schedule in June and July for all teams, it will be important they take some points this month, just to boost confidence levels and a result at the champions would help greatly.
They have plenty of experience in their squad, Luis Fabiano is very much at the veteran stage but knows where the goal is and has been a prolific scorer in Serie A, the same applies to Nenê who spent a decade in Europe (21 goals for PSG in 2011-12) , scored 13 for Vasco last season, 9 in the relegation year and even at 35 yo has got interest from some of the top sides, so clearly has plenty left to give playing in a slightly deeper role. They have a whole host of talented youngsters, Douglas Luiz is creating a stir and Paulo Vitor has been scoring for fun and setting a few records along the way and Vasco look to have a good mix and are ready to blood these youngsters alongside their veterans.
I guess they will be reasonably pleased with nine points and they have a very win-able home game with Avai on Sunday which will be priority, but that should ensure they at least come here in reasonably relaxed mood and this is a game which should produce goals.
Vasco kindly lost that 2-1 and were under pressure for the result at the weekend and eased past Avai 1-0, that should ensure they play open and pressure free again tonight, especially as a visit from Atletico Goianiense (see below) this coming Sunday promises three points. Botafogo have two very winable home games and will be looking to close in on top 3-4 , but defensively, I would not trust them right now. Seems odd to have a Rio derby game in midweek, but this one usually produces goals with a 3.5 average from last ten meeings with Bota as host and Vasco scoring 1.8 per game.
1.5 units "over" 2.25 goals 2.02 asian line/Sportmarket.