France: Ligue 2 betting tip: Olympique Nimes- BEBP

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France: Ligue 2: Olympique Nimes- BEBP
 
 
I skipped the Nimes game last week.............
 
 
Many of you will have noticed that Nimes were not included in today's previews which would be seen as most odd, as I have made no secret of how highly I rate them..........the best team in L2, possibly by some way and they have landed a series of double bets for us , including in each of their last four starts, winning those by a combined 14-3 and in truth, the margin(s) should have been more emphatic. However, today they are again without the oft discussed Sofiane Alakouch and whilst they have a good record in the talented young right back's absence, also sidelined are Teji Savanier and Renaud Ripart. That might not be enough to stop them and personally , I hope it is not, but it is sufficient for any value to be lessened considerably,  I have to pass on the game and felt I should explain why .
 
They lost that 2-1, but were without three key players, faced a team who were in great form ( 13 points now from a possible 15) and still dominated periods , creating the better chances and "hitting the woodwork twice" which are words myself and the head coach of ON are going to have engraved on our tombstone's ! I did see plenty from Sochaux which I liked, which I will save for the second preview of the day, but again, so much to admire from Nimes and they get Teji Savanier back today and he will take his place in central midfield and I have no desire to skip their game today. My notes on their last home start, a 4-1 defeat of Quevilly-Rouen are reproduced in full at the foot of this email and should hopefully explain why I am so loath to oppose/miss out on ON.
 
Today they host Bourg Peronnas who are fun to watch, as I hopefully explained before they hosted Valenciennes last Friday ..........
 
We have spoken so often in recent seasons about the open nature of BEBP games, they have averaged over 2.8 in each of the last two campaigns and are running at 3.29 this time round.  They have conceded 23 in their last ten starts, including three at basement club Tours before the break and twice at 7th tier opposition in the cup last week, where they trailed with 11 minutes remaining. A clean sheet seems unlikely and even restricting teams to two a big ask at present. Valenciennes are themselves conceding freely , especially on the road, but did score five in the two h2h games with Bourg Peronnas last season, which will give them confidence as they board the team bus. The visitors have conceded 16 goals in their last five away starts against Ligue 2 + level opposition, including three to two bottom half of the table teams. We opposed them for a recent home game with Nimes they are the only team to restrict ON to under four goals since the end of September, in  a 2-1 loss, but before we read anything much into that, our favourite Ligue 2 side also hit the woodwork twice and could , on another day, have scored five. Goals ! 2-2.
 
Valenciennes won that 3-1 and BEBP have now conceded 17 in 6 and it is very hard to see them restricting Nimes to less than that mean, the hosts have averaged 2.5 in their last ten starts (conceding in 6/7 in the league), through which BEBP have given up 2.2 (scoring in 7, including their last 4).
 
Young visiting centre back Grégoire Amiot is sidelined after missing just 7 minutes of Ligue 2 action this season and will be a significant loss.
 
 
1.5 units Olympique Nimes -1.5 goals 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket.
 
1.5 units "over" 3.25 goals 2.20 asian line/Sportmarket.
 
 
BEBP have conceded an average of 1.875 goals after the break in road games.
 
 
Olympique Nimes: Martin Sourzac – Baptiste Valette-Olivier Boscagli – Anthony Briançon – Liassine Cadamuro – Fethi Harek – Gaëtan Paquiez- Antonin Bobichon – Romain Del Castillo – Téji Savanier – Pierrick Valdivia – Théo Valls- Rachid Alioui – Umut Bozok – Lucas Buades – Clément Depres – Sada Thioub – Panagiotis Vlachodimos.
 

BEBP: Deneuve, Callamand, Martin, Ponroy, Digbeu, Paye, Faivre, N’Simba, Nirlo, Martins Pereira, Gamiette, Dimitriou, Hoggas, Heinry, Boussaha, Sarr, Merdji, Begue.

 

 

 

 

Good Luck.

 

Olympique Nimes- Quevilly-Rouen Metropole
 
 
I previewed Quevilly-Rouen Metropole's trip to Niort just before the international break where my notes included .............
 
 
Today they (Niort) host newly promoted Quevilly-Rouen who were playing in the fourth tier two seasons ago, but have achieved back to back promotions, their crowds (6-700) and budget (it is the lowest in L2 by some way) have not kept pace and it feels like the rapid improvement has finally caught up with them, they have one win, but six defeats and sit in the relegation playoff spot, already five points adrift of the team immediately above them in the table. They have conceded at least two goals in 4 of their last 5 starts and are used to winning and not sitting back and almost all their games this season have been open and could have produced more goals than the 2.67 pg they have actually averaged. They have had goalkeeper Joan Hartock to thank for keeping the scoreline down in several matches, they do not look up to L2 standard and the two teams below them have far more improvement in them and potential and this is going to be an incredible tough and long season for QRM.

 

Then ahead of a trip to Auxerre two weeks ago ..............
 
They lost that 2-1 and subsequently at home to Ajaccio last week 1-0, they only have Tours below them in the table and are already seven points adrift of BEBP in 17th. They did hit the woodwork last week , but had only one attempt on target and Hartock again made several saves. Auxerre have ten points from their last four starts, including a trip to Brest and home victory over Lorient and they are looking for a hat-trick of home wins and clean sheets, they do not score many, but are tight at the back and it is hard to see QRM overly troubling them.
 
 

QRM took the lead and again hit the woodwork, but found a way to lose 2-1, they are creating chances, but are at a low ebb confidence wise and not much is going their way.Last week I again opposed them in their derby game with Le Havre which they hosted and was pretty much their biggest game of the season, they lost 2-0. Their numbers were ok, but misleading as they were two down with a half still to play and it was job done for the visitor.

 
QRM are now 5 points adrift of the relegation playoff spot, ten from safety and look absolutely booked for bottom 2 and I would almost never say that at this stage of the season, only saving grace is that right now you would have to say the same about Tours, so maybe only one team has to go into freefall, but I would still see Tours as having the more potential of the bottom two over the remaining 25 games, although we have see precious little of it to date. Now QRM make the very long 800km trip down to Nimes to play what I think might be the best team in Ligue 2 and one we "never" oppose and have been championing for 15 months.
 
Ahead of a trip to Valenciennes last Saturday my notes read........
 
 
Last week I looked at Nimes-Brest .............
 
 
There is a very lengthy preview of Nimes-Orleans from last week reproduced in full below the "good luck" sign off  (edit: see October 20th email) which includes a lot of background information.
 
Nimes landed both bets and also one of the "correct scores" winning 4-1. The win took them back up to 6th, two points behind today's visitors Brest, who are currently 3rd. The hosts have named a very offensive looking squad again today and have Téji Savanier returning and they will not be sitting back for long, their games are averaging 2.91 goals and I don't see as likely to reduce that by much now that they are back to winning ways.
 
Brest are far more adventurous under former Troyes boss Jean-Marc Furlan and he found an extra 24 goals in them last season (0.63 per game), his first in charge and they have ten in five road games (four wins) already in this campaign. They are not a team I have backed, or opposed much, their negative approach pre Furlan was/is not to my taste, but ahead of their last away start, to struggling Tours I wrote ............
 

 

Tours are 0-2-7 through nine starts, eight points from safety and have been very poor at home where they are pointless and have a 1-11 goal difference. There are some notes on them in the preview of their recent trip to Paris FC at the foot of this email (edit: see September 29th email) and I want to highlight part of those ........."Tours have a very young team, average age for their last game was 22.1 years and 7 were younger than that, it is hardly suprising as head coach Gilbert Zoonekynd previously worked with their widly succesful U19 team before stepping up late last season."
 
Confidence is always a wonderful thing, but usually taken for granted when you have it and desperately hard to find when you don't and that goes double for youngsters. I will probably follow Tours for a few weeks when and if they pick up, but do not want to touch them and feel they should be opposed, in the meantime. Brest are not my favourite team, but they are in great form, with 16 points from a possible 18 and three clean sheets in their last four starts. Today they will be without right wing back Julien Faussurier, who has started all 47 league games since arriving from Sochaux, not sure how that will affect SB, but it is certainly not ideal. However, this is more about opposing Tours for now, they are without a win in 11, losing nine, have not kept a clean sheet in that sequence , conceding at the rate of 2.36 per game and scored just 4 in nine, other than the fact that they are giving youngsters game time, it is impossible to take any other positives out of that sequence of results.
 
Given Tours record it is hard to believe we got 2.80 + for Brest who won 2-1. I cannot however, have them as a better team than Nimes and SB29 dropped two points last week at home to Auxerre who are poor travellers and, for the fourth game running I felt that they had ridden their luck a little and suspect they will need to do so again to get something from this, but we do know that ON will give up chances. Brest are without Jessy Pi ( 3.14159 for short to his team mates, so will be in trouble around the centre circle .....sorry !) who, of course, is a midfielder, he has missed just 11 minutes of league and cup action this season and has scored in 3 of their 6 wins, including two on the road. Think goals are very likely , both to score and Nimes to win, 3-1 ?

Nimes actually won 4-0 which was still ideal, they ended up playing nine men, but were already leading for 37 minutes before the first dismissal and two ahead before the second. They had 26 attempts, 62% from inside the box and had 31crosses, which was a big route to goal for them last season, which we discussed at length at the time.

 
They have had a full eight days to rest and prepare for this, Valenciennes played at Ligue 1 Lille on Wednesday in the Coupe de la Ligue, where they lost in a penalty shootout. It is a year to the day since these two met here last season with Nimes coming from behind to win 3-2 and I can see this playing out similarly. Home defence looks a little unbalanced with players out of their natural position, they have conceded 2+ goals in 6/8 starts and I will be surprised if they do not do so again this afternoon.
 
Nimes won 2-1, we landed the win bet and half of the "over", we were robbed ! It might have seemed hard earned and I suppose it was, as they did not retake the lead until the 81st minute, but they had already hit the woodwork twice long before that and could easily have been out of sight by the last quarter of the contest.
 
Now the bad news, Nimes are without right back Sofiane Alakouch , he only turned 19 in July, but I have spoken of him many times as a future star and tried to get Brentford interested in him last season (I have recommended eight L2 players to them and one is currently a first team regular at the Bees). He is the real deal and will be missed, but Nimes won 4-1 at Ajaccio and 4-0 at Tours in his absence, so maybe not by as much as he would have been 12 months ago and Gaëtan Paquiez is an able enough deputy .
 
Nimes made their customary slow start to the campaign, but got things together much quicker this season and I would be shocked were they not to finish top 3, it feels like something majorly needs to go wrong for that to happen. It is all about them, they need to beat themselves, if they are on song, I don't think there is much any opponent can do about it. The 4-0 win at what might be a very strong Ajaccio team ( 5-0-0 , 12-1 goal difference in their other five home starts), without their star young defender makes incredibly impressive reading. No shock if they concede tonight, they have done so in 6 of their last ten wins, but still won five by 3+ goals and nine have gone "over", with 4 of the last 5 producing at least four goals.
 
 
1.5 units Olympique Nimes -1.5 ball 2.31 asian line/Sportmarket.
 
 
1.25 units "over" 3.5 goals 2.58 asian line/ Sportmarket.
 
 

Nimes : Sourzac, Valette - Boscagli, Briançon, Cadamuro, Harek, Paquiez - Bobichon, Del Castillo, Savanier, Valdivia, Valls - Alioui, Bozok, Depres, Ripart, Thioub, Vlachodimos.

 

QRM: Delaunay, Gounet, Mendy, Gobron, Vignaud, Salze, Sery, Lefort, Tie-Bi, Oliveira, Rogie, Basque, Taufflieb, Madiani, Ramon, Barthelemy, Boujedra, Gakpa, Plumain, Caddy, Duhamel.

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