1.83 Norwich to beat Watford, 1.79 Sunderland to defeat Everton, 1.94 Liverpool to take three points from Chelsea when they have a European final to play in seven days time and a Champions League place for next season on the line. It is easy to understand why these games are priced like this, but they do mess with your head a little and just seem a little wrong.
There were wild scenes at the Stadium of Light at the weekend, especially when that decisive goal against Chelsea went in and Sunderland can seal survival with two more points (effectively by winning tonight), but they will not want to lose and travel to Watford at the weekend perhaps needing to win. For Norwich, the case is a little different, fail to win and they are relegated, but what if news comes through that Sunderland are two up, how will that influence matters at Carrow Road ? Odds for the home wins do not really interest me, although none would surprise, but they are all IMO, underpriced.
Norwich have won just 2 of 16 and have failed to score in ten starts since the turn of the year. Watford match up well with them , have won on 4 of 6 visits here and allowed the Canaries just one attempt on goal in the reverse meeting.
We (clubgowi) need Sunderland to stay up (see foot of these notes), but we have talked all season about Everton being so much stronger on the road, Sunderland have drawn 6 of their last 9 starts and we have already spoken about a point having some value to them, despite their desire to get this matter settled tonight.
Chelsea lost at Sunderland, but could have been 3-1 up, maybe more before the hosts equalised and played well for a half there and also at home to Tottenham Hotspur last week and offensively, they have looked good in scoring eight in their last three start..... six in two on the road and at home to the second best team in the EPL. Defensively it is another story, we spoke about how much Kurt Zouma was missed earlier in the season and now with John Terry out and others carrying knocks, it is close to impossible to see them keeping a clean sheet. They have kept just one in 11 starts against Liverpool, most of which came when the Blues were good ! The hosts have conceded in their last 9 against the West London side, at least twice in the last three at Anfield. Hosts have scored in their last 12 Premier League starts and ten of those have gone "over".
Ligue 1: Bordeaux -Paris St Germain
PSG have not taken their foot off the gas following Champions League elimination, infact, they have gone into overdrive and have won their last five since bowing out to Manchester City by a 17-1 margin, putting six past Caen and scoring four against Rennes and GFCO. The first two are above Bordeaux in Ligue 1 and the third are fighting for survival and if PSG are up for it, they can run in 3-4 + goals against anyone in France and with the quality in their squad, they are not going to be suffering from the effects of a long campaign as much as other teams. There are a few records/targets up for grabs, they would open up a 30 point lead with a win this evening (also reach 30 wins for the season) and Zlatan will surely want to say his farewells on a high, he has 35 goals and five to reach 40 in his last two league games is certainly not impossible. He will probably feel a little "angry" that he only scored one of the four at the weekend , with Edinson Cavani notching a hat-trick and PSG will probably be looking to put the record staright and gain a little revenge for the 2-2 draw in Paris in the reverse fixture and a 3-2 defeat here in Bordeaux last season.
PSG have a lengthy injury list, they have been coping without Pastore, Van der Wiel and Verratti for some time, today Cavani and Blaise Matuidi are also sidelined. Without Matuidi in the squad, PSG have won 4/4 on the road ( GFCO, Troyes, Bastia and Nantes) with a 19-1 (!) goal difference, but he did sit out that 3-2 loss in this fixture last season. Cavani has played 25 minutes or less in 10 starts, PSG have won all ten, but again he also missed that defeat here last season, although I would say that had more to do with the fact that game was played just a couple of days after that gruelling Champions League tie at Stamford Bridge, which went to extra time and where Zlatan was dismissed early.
Final analysis and suggestions for tonights european football, which included strong picks at 2.07 and 3.0 , plus others at 2.75 and 21.0 (20-1), along with two solid MLS previews are only for subscribers to the newsletter service.
For news of what the summer holds for clubgowi subscribers and details of how you can get 100 newsletters ( circa 300-400 full match /event previews) for free, email us via the "contact us " form.
Good Luck.
Premier League Relegation Market: To Stay Up (written January 5th)
I think that
Sunderland, who are experienced
relegation battlers are too big in this market and we have to try a little on them and Big Sam, who has taken up a large part of clubgowi New Year notes, to work some magic and launch the great escape. I spoke about his CV ahead of a recent game versus Watford ...........
If I owned a football club in the EPL and we were in trouble, I would be very happy to appoint Sam Allardyce as manager, when the situation and players dictate, his teams can play much better football than he is given credit for and if a team absolutely must, at any cost,avoid relegation, then he is your man. Bolton, Blackburn and Newcastle United all overachieved during hs reign and I can guarantee that the trio regretted sacking him and would be in much better shape now if they had stuck with Big Sam. He took Wanderers into the top flight and to consecutive finishes of 8th-6th-8th-7th ( in the EPL !) and that was "not good enough" fast forward eight years, parachute payments have run out, they are bottom of the Championsip and circa £180m in debt, sometimes, just be careful what you wish for !
Sunderland won none of their first eight this season, but three from seven since Sam took charge and I would be amazed if he did not keep his team in the Premier League, Allardyce is very good at targeting "must win" games and with this fixture coming after a trip to the Emirates and before away games at Chelsea and Manchester City and a visit from Liverpool to end the year, guess which fixture he will have had his greedy eyes on since taking charge ? Not for Sam the "one game at a time cliche", he will have his troops pumped and straining to get at the Hornets. His team were very unlucky to come away empty handed against the Gunners, they played with huge discipline and skill on the break and I will leave the final words on that performance to the big man "I couldn't ask for any more in terms of the way we played," I couldn't have asked for more in terms of the chances we created, but we failed to take the chances we had."It makes me wonder what would have happened if we'd had Jermain Defoe on the field. He could have had two or three goals. I'm really disappointed we haven't got anything out of the game, but I have to be satisfied with the performance."I think we've got goalscorers, we've got Steven Fletcher, we've got Duncan Watmore, we've got Jermain to come back, we just haven't taken the chances we've created."
They lost that and also those tough Christmas fixtures, but as I have already said, they were unlucky in the Liverpool game, they got a huge win over Aston Villa at the weekend and whilst they did not beat much, their attitude and manner of victory was good and just what you would expect from an Allardyce team. I hope and expect they will lose at Arsenal in the cup on Saturday and they can then focus solely on survival, they are currently eight points behind Norwich City, six adrift of Bournemouth and four behind Swansea City and it is one or more of those three they will be looking to catch and they play two of them this month, so a good chance to haul at least one right into the heart of the dog fight. We still have 18 rounds to play, so it is a little pointless looking too much at remaining fixtures as every one will be facing the same teams more or less, BUT the Black Cats have already played the "big four" on the road, so their fixtures just have to be a little bit easier than most other teams in the bottom half of the table.
38 points is the required level most people talk about , but 36 could have got the job done in the last four seasons, even 33 in one of those and Crystal Palace and Leicester City were both in the bottom three at this stage last season and ended up 10th and 14th respectively, not suggesting anything similar for the Black Cats, but it shows what can be done through the second half of the campaign and one or two teams always go into a bit of a tailspin, last season Hull and QPR lost 23 matches after New Year between them and the year before that Norwich, Fulham, Cardiff and Hull all lost at least 11.
This will be the first transfer window that Allardyce has had at the club and he will surely be allowed to get busy and I understand that three or four players have been targeted and a couple are very close to signing, in Defoe ( see above) they have a proven goalscorer and one who will be boosted by his two goals against Villa and I spoke last week about their improved record when Lee Cattermole plays ....the really big news for them is that hugely competitive midfielder Lee Cattermole should be fit to start after 34 minutes from off the bench at Manchester City on Boxing Day. He is just the type of player Big Sam loves and his influence is obvious, when he starts Sunderland have taken 11 points fron eight starts (which is about 12th placed form ) just one from ten (!) when he doesn't.
If Sunderland can add to their squad and they will and Allardyce will have one of two of his long term injured back in around six weeks, that will greatly increase options for the run in. Something similar to what they collected over the last 16 games last season will given them a chance, they have two more games than that, so this is no forlorn hope and with plenty of twists and turns to come, I think that the current odds offer value for them to survive.
Before looking at what was available, I felt that 3.50 would offer a shade of value, most companies offer 4.0-4.33 and I woud have been happy putting that up, but several others offer 5.0 and 5.50 and that is way too big IMO.
I will put up 1.5 units Sunderland to stay up @ 4.0 + , but would (of course) suggest betting more the closer to that 5.50 you can get.
For news of what the summer holds for clubgowi subscribers and details of how you can get 100 newsletters ( circa 300-400 full match /event previews) for free, email us via the "contact us " form.
