Also absent is top scorer Rachid Aliou, they won 3-1 at league leading Lens in the only away game he missed this season, so we have to accept that their offensive threat remains, but when Alakouch plays they are 8-6-0, without him 3-6-6 ! However, I think that is not solely down to a teenage right back, however good he is and Nimes as a unit are much improved over the last 3-4 months. Having said that, they have to be a litlle more suspect at the back and I have made a late switch from Nimes off level ball to the over, with a small bet on the away win.
 

They lost that 2-1 with Fabien Garcia getting sent off around the hour mark, his absence will not be an issue tonight with Fethi Harek ( just 2 losses in 21 games when he plays) and Alakouch returning. Aliou is still sidelined( see above), that should not be enough to stop them and the front men we know, will get a lot of service and are potent in their own right. Nimes won the reverse fixture 3-2 without a goal from Aliou and took this match 2-0 here almost exactly 12 months ago.
 

Valenciennes have won just twice on the road and conceded eight in their last three away starts, they have allowed two or more on 11 of the last 12 occasions they have conceded at least one and once the floodgates open, they struggle to stem the tide and tend to lose their way.
 

I often speak and have done so elsewhere today, about team news not being overly important at this stage of the season, where desire and motivation are the overriding qualities required and it almost doesn't matter who brings them to the party, as long as someone does, but today Valenciennes who were already hard hit by injury, will be missing seven starters . They include the central defensive spine and scorers of 19 of their goals. VAFC are coming off a 4-0 home loss to Tours, they were already without top scorer Da Costa and several others that day, now ever present centre back Nestor, Roudet, Enza-Yamiss and Ambri are new and additional absences. I just do not see how they are going to stop ON from scoring multi goals today.

 

1.5 units Nimes -1 ball 2.50 asian line/Sportmarket Pro.
 

1 unit "over" 3.5 goals 3.25-3.50 asian line/Sportmarket.
 

Nimes- Red Star (written March 10th)

 

I opposed Red Star last week when they hosted Lens ...........
 

Full report can be read on this link, which included ......
 

The home side are without Jean-Charles Castelletto, Ronald Zubar, and Pierrick Cros (two players with that name btw, other is a back up keeper), they are all centre backs and that leaves Red Star very short handed today. They have named four "defenders", two right backs, a CD who has not played since December and made only 8 starts in the last two seasons and a defensive midfielder who is 35 yo, was brought in as a free agent and has played 130 minutes at tier 3 this season ! That is not good enough, this looks a fantastic opportunity for the visitors and I expect them to win.
 

It was a little bit of history repeating with the visitors again coming from behind to win, this time by 3-2. Red Star do get Jean-Charles Castelletto ( see above) back today, but are still a little light defensively and I really struggle to see more that 2-3 home players who would pucsh for a starting place in what I believe to be a very strong Nimes team, who feature in my notes most weeks. Last Friday I spoke about the huge number of balls they were getting into the box and highlighted that as a now underrated statistic that perhaps needed revisiting .............

BEBP had conceded three goals inside 13 minutes at BOTH Niort and Le Havre and gave up two each to the two "worst" teams in L2, they look vulnerable defensively and there should be goals in this for Nimes, who, as regular readers know, are one of my favourites and very well suited to playing on the road, where they have collected 24 of their 39 points this season.

My notes on their last away win are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off in full, they won 2-1 at highflying Amiens that day, but it is their last two starts, draws at Troyes and home to Gazelec we are probably better off talking about. They played well enough in both, dominating attempts, possession , corners, completed passes and did not allow Troyes, whom I also rate highly, a single attempt on target on home soil. ON also had a huge 65 crosses from open play in those two games, now crosses are a much maligned stat IMO and we could argue all morning, I have absolutely no intention of doing so, so please do not write, about their value or otherwise, but we, by which I mean "I" can discuss these more at some future stage, Suffice to say that I think they are far more relevant than some analysis consensus in recent years might have us believe, especially, when, like in this case, they are such a dominating stat.

I "know" Nimes are good, my numbers say top 2 and I have to side with them as strongly as possible today, time for an about turn in thinking...... "crosses are the new high/wide press " !
 

They won that 1-0 , the points took them into 6th and within four points of an automatic promotion place and with their next five starts against teams currently 10th or lower in the table, they have a real opportunity to kick on and put some pressure on the five above them. The time is right, they know that Sofiane Alakouch and one or two others will not be here much longer, unless they reach Ligue 1, they are very offensive minded and it should be three points or bust from here on in.

 

1.25 units Nimes -1 ball 2.62 asian line/Sportmarket.