No need to applaud ...................

football betting tips -
Ligue 2:
On November 18th I did my usual early to mid season look at "our" leagues and how Ligue 2 had performed up to that point and what we should expect going forward  ............
14 rounds in and home wins are running at just 36.43% , the last six seasons have averaged 43.9%, never less than 41.32% and I doubt we are going to have "lost" 20-30 home wins come the end of the season.
We had a lot of early season draws both this season and last , but last, which was even lower in terms of "homes" at this stage (35.71% ) picked up considerably and was 45.22% between rounds 16 and 38, which is a very high average across 23 rounds in a league like this , but we should expect something similar, to get these numbers back on track.

Homes have produced at the rate of 44.76% since I wrote those stats (no need to applaud) and are now 41.43% for the season, with aways staying stable at 27%, we can expect those home numbers to continue to stay at this level over the final three rounds and they should end up pretty much at expected levels. That is what usually happens, leagues tend to play out roughly similarly year after year in terms of 1X2, it is just working out who will get what that is the difficult part(!), but to know that there is likely to be an increase in 1, X or 2 over a certain period of rounds is definitely a help and a great starting point. In case you think that a 8.33% increase in home wins is not much, it equates to 17.5 games across 21 rounds and is significant.

The doctrine of marginal gains is all about small incremental improvements in any process adding up to a significant differential when they are all added together and that can be appiled to analysing even the most basic of stats IMO. In other words, any edge is a good one !

We have also discussed the increase in goals in Ligue 2 recently and (obviously) the two are not unrelated, goals were at 2.18 per game through 14 rounds, they are now up to 2.42 and have run at 2.58 pg in the interim.

This is good stuff, a regular feature in clubgowi newsletters and we should all have made a little money or restricted losses (equally as valuable) with this information at hand.


Good Luck.

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