Ligue 2:
 

 

Homes have produced at the rate of 44.76% since I wrote those stats (no need to applaud) and are now 41.43% for the season, with aways staying stable at 27%, we can expect those home numbers to continue to stay at this level over the final three rounds and they should end up pretty much at expected levels. That is what usually happens, leagues tend to play out roughly similarly year after year in terms of 1X2, it is just working out who will get what that is the difficult part(!), but to know that there is likely to be an increase in 1, X or 2 over a certain period of rounds is definitely a help and a great starting point. In case you think that a 8.33% increase in home wins is not much, it equates to 17.5 games across 21 rounds and is significant.

The doctrine of marginal gains is all about small incremental improvements in any process adding up to a significant differential when they are all added together and that can be appiled to analysing even the most basic of stats IMO. In other words, any edge is a good one !
 

We have also discussed the increase in goals in Ligue 2 recently and (obviously) the two are not unrelated, goals were at 2.18 per game through 14 rounds, they are now up to 2.42 and have run at 2.58 pg in the interim.