Odds and sods ............

football betting tips -

Asian handicap lines are tough to beat, oddsmakers there are talented anyway and by day of the game, markets are well formed by trading that has taken place in build up to the event, when limits are lower. To beat them long term you need to be good, work hard and constantly look to improve. However, I have a few personal rules which I feel help, one of which is that I never bet at odds below 1.90 , almost never below 2.0 and most of my personal bets are in the 2.20-2.48 range.

That is illustrated by the 15 free to view previews published on the website in 2016 having average odds of 2.30.

I am sure that someone can come up with an argument against that policy, but it has stood the test of time for me and whilst the criteria for arriving at that selection is constantly evolving, I strongly feel that I am giving myself the best possible chance to win with my minimum odds policy. It is not an entirely hard and fast rule, if I am rather certain that something has a "true" 60% chance of winning, I am going to play or suggest it at 1.90 (52.63%), but given that all my selections are "over priced" in that my own odds are significantly shorter, I can usually afford to stick with those where the odds offered are more rewarding, which means that I have greater leeway in terms of strike rate.

For example, yesterday I previewed four games, two won and at odds of 2.28 and 2.42, so, with a strike rate of 50%, I made a ROI of 17.5%, if you could do that day in , day out you would quickly become a very rich man, but you cannot, if you could, you would not be reading this, normally, at this stage of an article, the author would say you would be "lying on a beach somewhere", but the truth is that you wouldn't,  you would be working your butt off to retain that edge, however, it illustrates a point. 

If I was betting at odds of 1.80 , I would need closing in on a 60% strike rate to make what I would consider worthwhile returns and personally, I do not feel comfortable looking for 3 winners from 5 selections on such tough markets. Of course, there is nothing wrong with doing that if you are always getting value for money and better than true odds, but that is never an exact science and I prefer to give myself more margin for error. Betting on sports is similar to playing, in that so much of what goes on occurs between the ears and if you feel happy and comfortable with what you are doing/ betting, it has to be hugely beneficial.

Average odds of 2.30 with a 46% strike rate is going to make you a decent second income, 2.36 @ 47% and you are talking about a good living wage. 2,000 bets on the first will make you 116 units profit, that is up to 218 units on the second and somewhere between those two is my basic target from football betting and in three years of clubgowi we have bettered those unit returns in relation to number of selections (average 1,100 football bets and 132 unit profit per year ) and we will be far closer to the 2,000 example in 2016 , maybe 1,500 bets , with perhaps a further 300 suggestions on other sports.

I think that a clubgowi subscription would be of huge value to any regular bettor, but alternatively, I would suggest that you spend time not just looking at what teams you are betting, but also odds and expected strike rate.

 

Good luck !

 

 

 

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