There was an 11.00 UK time "golf" newsletter scheduled for today, but with the delays at St Andrews , a Monday finish and a lot of players I would consider still in contention set to tee off before that time, I will pass and will hold off on the golf until tomorrow, hopefully play is completed normally today and we have a regular R4 to preview then.
I will stick with the 13.00 email, which will carry the rest of today's football previews, for now, just Japan..........
Round 3 of the second stage: I will just repeat the revised league format I outlined in midweek once more and then we can put it on the backburner until the end of the season .....
Format: This is the second round of Stage 2, the two stage winners ( Urawa Reds won the first) will get a home berth in the first round of the playoffs, whomever has the most points of those two over the two stages is the top seed, and thus will play all of its playoff games at home. The teams with the second and third most points over the full season also qualify for the playoffs, making a total of four teams. The stage winner with the most points plays against the third-place finisher and the stage winner with fewest points plays the second-place finisher. Once decided, the playoff winner will face the team with the most points over the entire year, in a home-and-away Championship Series.
Which is about as clear as mud !
I am loathe to say too much as the post season format has already been changed once and the eagle eyed amongst you will probably realise that there is a very good (big odds on) chance that at least one team will make one or more criteria, in which case the playoffs will be shortened, for example, if Urawa also has the most points over the full season, they qualify directly for the Championship Series, completely bypassing the playoffs.
I thought that it was a terrible move to mess with the format to begin with, but now I am changing my mind and if they just tweak the post season arrangements for next season it will be an improvement I feel. It will enable teams competing in the AFC Champions League, where they have been at a big disadvantage, to compete both domestically and internatiuonally and we have seen immediate signs of that with two teams in the last eight of the CL.
Urawa will want to keep winning and secure the overall win as soon as possible and both stages carry different titles and prize money. The situation at the foot of the table is unchanged , with the bottom three over the full season being relegated. We can look again at these changes a little later in the season and hopefully, use them to our advantage, but I think they matter little for now and all teams should be trying their best and I have rarely seen any examples of teams not doing so in J-league in any case.
Shimizu S-Pulse- Nagoya Grampus
Oh my goodness, 2-0 down against Gamba Osaka in midweek, who are very easy on the eye and comfortable on the ball, Nagoya Grampus fought back to win 3-2 and claim a very unlikely and for me, costly win, but one which will give them a lot of confidence. The win was all the more noteworthy as Nagoya had scored just once in four previous home starts, now they manage three in 45 second half minutes ! However, it was not like they did not have goal scoring potential, infact, coming into the new season it looked like they had it in abundance and I wrote ...........
Gamba Osaka were easily the best J-League team last season and completed the domestic treble despite being in the relegation zone after 14 rounds. Knowing that, it will not surprise you to know that they, with 39 points, were the best team over the second half of the campaign , followed by Kashiwa Reysol with 36 and Kashima Antlers with 33, they were the only three teams to break the 30 point barrier, although special mention goes to Nagoya Grampus with 29, which was far and away the best of the teams who finished in the bottom half of the table and I see them as a big potential improver.
Akira Nishino is in his second year in charge there and his ideas were clearly getting across to the players and having an influence in the second half of last season, he was wildly successful at Gamba Osaka for a decade, winning numerous trophies and two coach of the year awards. He took a while to start winning things at Gamba and Nagoya are clearly prepared to give him time and to back his judgement, the signings of Kengo Kawamata from Albirex Niigata and Leandro Domingues from Kashiwa Reysol last summer worked out well, with Kensuke Nagai thriving alongside them with 9 goals and three assists over the last 17 games and the club averaging almost two goals per game. They have now added veteran Slovenian striker Milivoje Novakovic from Shimizu S-Pulse, who's record of scoring 16 goals and contributing 4 assists in 38 league and cup appearances for a team battling relegation was awesome, as was the fact he was available for every single game and only missed 23 minutes of league action, at pushing 35 years of age. Really see a big season for them if they can all gel and hit the ground running.
Nagai (first goal in seven weeks) and Kawamata who has now scored in back to back games (see both above) scored in midweek and looking at that performance now in a detached way, it is easy to once more see the potential they have offensively and maybe another big end of season push is on the cards. They travel to meet a very poor Shimizu team who have conceded 37 goals in 19 starts and who are very vulnerable at the back when they push forward, conceding 2.33 in home starts and it is hard to see them keeping the visitors out for long. Grampus won the reverse fixture 3-1 with Nagai and Kawamata both scoring, the pair were rested for the league cup game here at the end of May, which SSP took seriously and Nagoya still won 2-1 and I expect them to follow up this "morning".
1.5 units Nagoya Grampus -0.25 ball 2.31 asian line/Sportmarket.
Urawa Reds- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
I like the odds about Sanfrecce Hiroshima today, if you take a quick look at the format, it is easy to make a case for them being the more motivated of the two given that they still have to qualify for post season play and have made no secret of the fact that they have eyes on a title this season .....After consecutive J-League titles they came up short last year, claiming to have been exhausted by the schedule, with two demanding Champions League campaigns, no such worries this year and they are very committed to another domestic title. They have shared the goals around this season, but the two main front men, Douglas and Sato both scored in midweek and look to be developing a potent understanding, Sato is a veteran now , but has been one of the most prolific J-L strikers for more than a decade and like most front men, tends to be very streaky and one goal usually follows another.
The front pair claimed 13 goals in stage 1 and incredibly, already have three between them in the two games since the restart , I only say "incredibly" as Sanfrecce nothched six in midweek without a contribution from Sato, he was taken off after little more than 50 minutes with today in mnd and Douglas shortly afterwards and they should be fit and raring to go today.The pair will be boosted by the news that Urawa's vastly experienced central defender Daisuke Nasu is suspended, he has missed just one game this season in which Reds conceded three goals ( just 0.83 goals per game in the other 18 starts) and they have won just once in the five games he has sat out in the last three seasons. Last three h2h matches have been drawn and one goal today should be enough to secure at least a share of the points for the visitors and Urawa are less well equipped than usual to stop them scoring it.
1.5 units Sanfrecce Hiroshima +0.25 ball 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket.
Gamba Osaka- Yokohama F.Marinos
Most of you know how highly I rate Gamba Osaka and especially, Takashi Usami, if not,you can read the Wednesday newsletter. They blew two points there (see Nagoya preview above) and will be keen to get back on track as soon as possible, defensively they do not look as strong as last year, but Marinos are struggling with just three goals in five starts and unlikely to put the hosts under the same kind of pressure that a Grampus side who were gambling and throwing caution to the wind, did. The visitors are underperforming big time against the stronger J-League teams in any case with a 0-2-7 record against top 8 clubs this season and turning into something of a" flat track bully", only able to turn it on against the weaker teams. Veteran right back Yuzo Kobayashi is suspended for Marinos today, they have won just once in the nine starts he has missed in the last three seasons, including a 2-1 home loss to Hiroshima this season where goals came from wide positions. Winger Kotaro Omori scored his first league goal of the season gor Gamba in midweek and can take advantage of the defender's absence today.Home win.
1.5 units Gamba Osaka -0.5 ball 2.00 asian line/Sportmarket.
Vegalta Sendai- Vissel Kobe
Unfortunately, Vissel Kobe could not hold onto their lead at home to Shonan Bellmare in midweek, ahead of which my preview read ....
I wrote a rather long write up on Vissel Kobe in April, which is reproduced at the foot of this email (see Wednesday email) and it is worth a quick read through, I updated that at the end of May , speaking about the injury problems that had crippled them ........
After championing Vissel Kobe for a month or so and doing very well with them, some of you will have noticed that I have swerved their recent games and that has been the correct policy as they have taken just two points from a possible 15. They have been incredibly hard hit by injury and forced to play players out of position, with a third/fourth choice option in key areas in recent starts, especially on the left flank. They are coming from a 2-0 defeat at a limited Matsumoto Yamaga team at the weekend, where they were missing five-six starters and remember , this is a team still adapting to a new coach, something we discussed in detail early season (see below). Kobe are not a team I want to "ditch", far from it, but we need them to get a couple of players back before betting them once again, having said that, they are in a stronger group position than Marinos and would probably be happy with a draw today, but they are going to have to carefully manage their squad right now and juggle today's line up with the trip to Montedio Yamagata on Saturday firmly in mind.
They have found some very nice form, being unbeaten in five in all competitions, including draws with Gamba and Urawa the two best teams in the country and winning twice on the road by an aggregate 9-0 , including a 5-0 defeat of Shimuzu S-Pulse at the weekend, I accept they did not beat much as SSP are in dire shape, but it is verification that Kobe are firing and the margin of victory will have done wonders for their confidence. They now need to follow up in front of their own supporters, the club have upped the ante by resigning favourite son Leandro, who scored 27 goals in 65 games in all competitions for Vissel in 2007 and 2008 and has rejoined his former Kashiwa Reysol manager, Nelsinho. It took him all of 41 minutes to get off the mark on his debut and greatly increases offensive options and with the treatment room more or less empty now, we need to keep Kobe on our side.
They pushed hard to re-take the lead, but things did not fall for them in front of goal and that has been the strory for them in home starts, on the road they thrive in the extra space and have lost just once in ten starts ,scoring at the rate of 1.5 goals per game, they scored three goals here in the league last season, blowing a 2-0 half time lead, but kept a cleansheet in the cup early this season. Sendai are a very funny team, who can beat/lose to anyone, but they have already lost five times at home where they are far too gung ho and Kobe have the firepower to exploit that.
1.5 units Vessel Kobe level ball 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket.
Albirex Niigata- Sagan Tosu
We again discussed how solid Sagan had been in the first half and leaky in the second in midweek. They stopped the second period rot with a clean sheet at home to Kawasaki Frontale , but had to settle for a share of the points after going in at the break 1-1, they need to find a balance between undoing all their first half hard work and completely going into their shell and if they do, will be tough to beat. Anyway, they are now 7-12-0 before the break and only Sanfrecce have scored more first half goals . The last four h2h2 meetings here and three reverse fixtures have all produced a first half goal, two or more in four, with Albirex scoring in the last six before the break. I like first half goals here, the "over" 1 line at 1.91 with Pinnacle/Pro is fine, but too close to my minimum odds and I prefer 1.25 units "over" 1.25 goals 2.35 IBC/Pro, or the 1.5 line which is a general 2.75 . There should be more options and leeway early "in running" on asian lines and I am only talking one or two minutes into the game, when lines change quickly on HT markets.
Good Luck.
