Five months ago these two met in the 2015-16 semi finals and I sided with Atletico to progress, which they did by the narrowest of margins ( away goals rule), winning the home leg 1-0, prior to which I wrote ..............
Ahead of Atletico's 2-0 quarter final win over Barcelona my preview read .................
I have spoken recently about Barcelona maybe looking a little tired/jaded and that has surely been backed up by the Catalan giants collecting just a single point from three La Liga starts, including losing to Real Sociedad last weekend. They did manage to win the home leg of this tie last Tuesday by a 2-1 scoreline, but Atletico controlled the first 30 minutes there and led courtesy of a Fernando Torres goal, before he turned from hero to villan by needlessly getting himself dismissed and that turned the game on it's head and playing with ten men for an hour against a team who move the ball as well and as quickly as Barce, was always likely to be a thankless task. My notes from that game, in which I spoke about how tough it was to defend the Champions League nowadays and highlighted why Barcelona could be running out of gas, the bad luck that Atleti had in recent h2h meetings and how tough the team from Madrid are to score against, are reproduced in full at the foot of this email and I would suggest that you start by re-reading those..
I suspect that Diego Simeone and his team will stick with their game plan, look to mainly defend and frustrate Barce and to try and win 1-0, the scoreline which would see them progress on the away goal rule. Barcelona do not need to win to progress and might be similarly happy to play out the opening period quietly and will be mindful that when they lost out to Atletico at this stage two years ago, it was a very similar scenario, 1-0 would see the hosts progress and they took a very early lead and then played like the away team, sat back and dared Barce to break them down. To be honest, the home side were much the better team for me in that game, despite having only 36% possession and flew out of the blocks, hitting the woodwork three times in the opening 19 minutes ! Maybe they will tear at the visitors again from the off, the home crowd will definitely be willing them to do so, but whether the goal comes early or late, I favour Atletico and feel that all the value remains with them and that odds of 2.30 + off level ball are wrong about two well matched teams and there are plenty of scorelines by which the hosts can win and Barce still be in the competition after 90 minutes, which I always feel is a bonus in these situations.
The morning after they had won I added ......
I do not think I have ever seen a team press like Atletico in the opening 45 minutes, they often had seven players in the Barcelona third when the Catalan side had gained possession and the best passing side of all time were anchored deep with nowhere to go. Once they took the lead Atletico dropped deeper and deeper, but I doubt they had too much choice over that, as despite their huge fitness levels and Simeone put them through hell in the off season to get as fit as they are, they were never going to be able to keep that up for 90 minutes +. That match made a mockery of possession stats, I do not know exactly how much of the ball Barcelona had in the opening 45 minutes, maybe 70% (?), but it was worthless possession and they were never going to hurt Atletico. The home side were by far the better team, Barce should have had a penalty late, which might have taken the game into extra time, but Iniesta played a big part in that move and should not have still been on the pitch after his handball for the penalty . Unbelievably good tactics from Simeone and his men, everyone says Barcelona were poor, they were nowhere near their best, but that would still have been good enough to beat most teams, but I think the real truth is that they are shattered and have run out of steam.
Now Atletico have to pitch themselves against another giant of European football in Bayern, but I see no reason to desert them. Bayern dominate the Bundesliga and that is half the problem, in that they are so rarely tested. At least in La Liga , the big three meet each other and the second best group, Athletic, Sevilla, Villarreal and Valencia are capable of pushing the best and have six european finals between them in the last dozen years (five wins) and might have another two finalists in the Europa League this season. Bayern's quality takes them through the early rounds, but I always feel they are at a disadvantage once we reach the business end due to lack of real and regular top quality opposition. I know they won the Champions League in 2013, but they were really an exceptional team that year and even a bit of a surprise package . Since the turn of the year they have played five top level games against three opponents, Juventus, Dortmund and Benfica and won just one (1-0) inside 90 minutes and are winless in their last seven away starts in the Champions League knockout stages .
Maybe they will go through over two legs, but I am not so sure and I just cannot agree with them being big favourites to win in Madrid, where Atletico rarely lose and under Diego Simeone they have only conceded in 4 of 16 CL home games, he his bound to have a surprise or two in store for Guardiola and co.
Atletico missed a penalty in the second leg, which they lost 2-1 and were largely on top in the first half and for me, they were the better team over the two legs and went through on merit. We get largely similar odds tonight, odds against off level ball and I see no reason to ditch the home side, despite having sided with Bayern in two domestic games, where they scored nine goals without reply, that is the whole point really, the lack of quality opposition, week in , week out.
Ahead of Atletico's recent home game with Sporting Gijon I wrote ........
Atletico are coming from a hard fought 1-0 win at PSV in midweek and my notes on that can be read below in full, one line read .............
After back to back draws to start their La Liga campaign, the international break had clearly done them wonders and they ran out very comfortable 4-0 winners at Celta Vigo on Saturday, running riot after the break, with Antoine Griezmann scoring twice in just his second start of the season. They will want to take that momentum through this and the weekend league game, into next midweek's visit to Barcelona.
Now that they have remembered how to win, they will want to continue to build and take a positive result to the Camp Nou on Wednesday. Atleti have some revenge in mind today, having lost 2-1 at Gijon late last season, a few days after playing the second knockout stage game with PSV and they were exhausted and Sporting fighting for survival.That will not have been forgotten, a quite heavily rotated Atletico could have been two up early, but were outbattled in what was quite a brusing encounter and I do not see them settling for a one goal win today if they take the lead.
They won that 5-0, came from behind to earn a point at the Camp Nou against Barcelona and edged home 1-0 at the weekend when they had eyes firmly on this encounter. It is not easy to score against Atletico here in Madrid and the hosts have only conceded four times in 17 home starts in the competition, have cleansheets in 10 of 12 group stage games and for me, they are quite simply the best defensive unit and disciplined team in football and all the value is with them again this evening.
1.5 units Atletico Madrid level ball 2.14 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
Atletico were disappointing on Saturday, losing at home to Barcelona after taking the lead early in the second half, they certainly didn't deserve to win and lost because they showed too little ambition offensively after Barce equalised. On reflection, I do not feel that were done any favours by playing that game immediately before their Champions League opener, it was the same for Barcelona of course, but the Catalan giants are european veterans and Atletico are not quite in that league yet. Also, Diego Simeone has spoken a LOT about how they struggled in the premier club competition last season after losing their opening group fixture away to Olympiakos, they had given everything in a 2-1 road win against their cross town rivals Real Madrid just a couple of days before that tie and were a little jaded early in the match in Greece, I think that has played on Simeone's mind since and I feel that influenced their approach to the match at the weekend, which was a bit lacklustre. Anyway, we can expect them to be very committed to the cause today and it would be a bit of disaster if they "sacrificed" their performance in one and then came up short in the second.
They won 2-0 at Galatasaray in their opener and that set them up for the group win and run to the final and I expect a similarly focused performance this evening. After back to back draws to start their La Liga campaign, the international break had clearly done them wonders and they ran out very comfortable 4-0 winners at Celta Vigo on Saturday, running riot after the break, with Antoine Griezmann scoring twice in just his second start of the season. They will want to take that momentum through this and the weekend league game, into next midweek's visit to Barcelona.
This will be very far from a trip into the unknown as Atleti met PSV in the last 16 of the competition last season and ahead of the first and away leg I wrote ......
I suspect that PSV have already reached their target for the season in terms of the Champions League and it will be very difficult for them to progress any further against an Atletico side who are becoming one of the giants of European club football. The visitors coasting to the Europa League title in 2012 ( easiest winner in history ?) were a minute or two away from winning the Champions League in 2014 and are the only team to stop Barcelona reaching the semis in the last eight seasons and it is hard to make a case for anyone, other than the other "elite" clubs , putting them out of this year's competition and it is a very long time since any Dutch side was considered as such.
PSV won Eredivisie by 17 points last season, but are going toe to toe with Ajax this time round and currently lead the Amsterdam club by just a single point with ten rounds to play and,with a big difference in regard to next year's CL in terms of finishing first (directly into group stage) or second ( two qualifying rounds and four matches to play), you could make at least a case for the league game with Ajax, which comes just days after the return leg in Madrid being the most important game that they will play in the next month. Anyway, they have been strong at home all season and wins over Manchester United, Wolfsburg and CSKA Moscow in the group stage look impressive, but two of those have struggled domestically and they will be asked far more questions today and will have to answer them without top scorer and captain Luuk de Jong, who has 17 goals and 6 assists in the league and scored against CSKA and Wolfsburg. In his absence over the last two seasons PSV have lost 4 of 6 starts ( lost 3/3 in Europe when he plays 20 minutes or less).
Atletico have been fast learners in how to play these games and you have to be to thrive and progress, but the trouble is the learning curve is steep and you do not get many goes to get it right ! I discussed this and how Diego Simeone had learned so much from previous ties and "how to play the CL" ahead of road games at Galatasaray and Benfica this season and notes on both can be found at the foot of this email. I think his and his team's ( almost) sole focus from here on in will be the Champions League and given how strong they are defensively and on the break, I doubt any team in Europe, maybe Barcelona aside, is better equipped to play these kind of away games, especially against what is, it has to be said, now a very inexperienced team at this level of competition, playing their first CL knockout game in a decade. Atletico will want that cherished away goal and just one might be enough to win this, but Atleti scored two in the two road games in the competition in which we have backed them and IMO this fixture is not much more difficult. Atletico have posted a La Liga high nine road wins and only Barcelona have scored against them in their last five away starts, apart from games against the "big 2" , they have kept clean sheets in 67% of all starts and even then, many of those conceded were either late consolations or in meaningless ( already won ) fixtures.
