UEFA Champions League betting previews : AS Monaco- Bayer Leverkusen/ Sevilla- Olympique Lyonnais

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UEFA Champions League :
 
 
AS Monaco- Bayer Leverkusen

We sided with the hosts for their opening group game at Wembley against Tottenham ........Monaco are top of Ligue 1 and were certainly no less impressive than Spurs in a 4-1 away win at Lille on Saturday, they played with great pace and width, so Wembley should suit, they will be stronger today with a couple of regulars returning and arrive full of confidence. ASM upgraded in the summer and feel they are very different from the side who lost 4-1 at White Hart Lane last December in the Europa League. That was a half hearted performance from the visitors who were already on their way out of a competition they were not committed to and they were at the time still playing catch up in Ligue 1 for a Champions League place, their target for the season. Already competition battle hardened through playoff games with Villarreal where they won both legs, I favour them to take a point this evening in what could be a very entertaining contest.
 

They won that 2-1 and have taken both home games since, with their "blip", a 4-0 loss at rivals Nice sandwiched in between. It was key that they got back on track on Saturday after that heavy loss and this is a very different ASM to the one we have seen in recent campaigns, they are certainly more vulnerable defensively, but are on a different level at the other end of the pitch. 17 of their last 22 starts have gone "over", including 4 of 5 Champions League games and those 22 matches averaged 3.41 per game.
 
Bayer Leverkusen started with a 2-2 home draw with CSKA Moscow and like most German teams are used to playing an offensive style, their last seven group starts have averaged 4.14 goals and were far more open than even that suggests, they scored at Barcelona and Roma (twice) last season and can play their part in another open contest.
 
1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.
 
Sevilla- Olympique Lyonnais

 

Ahead of Sevilla's daunting trip to Juventus on Matchday 1, I spoke about the huge changes which had gone on at the club over the summer, their change is system and strong home/poor road form over the last 12 months or so ...........
 
These two met in Turin in the group stage last season, with Juventus running out comfortable 2-0 winners, the goals came late in each half, but it was a result which never looked in doubt, with the home side winning the attempts on goal count 24-1 ! Sevilla arrived with a conservative mindset , which is/was not their usual approach, but there is good reason to think they might do so again and that should allow the hosts to dominate.
 
The visitors are much changed, head coach Unai Emery has moved on after taking the team to a hat-trick of Europa League titles in three seasons, I spoke about this ahead of their UEFA Super Cup game with a below strength Real Madrid early last month ............
 
Sevilla are now Super Cup regulars and are appearing in this European football season "opener" for the 5th time in the last 11 seasons. The previous four have produced 17 goals, including a 4-4 draw with Barcelona in 90 minutes last year, Sevilla have scored eight of those goals and are certainly not afraid to take the game the Champions League winner. La Liga games between Real and Los Rojiblancos offer even more promise of goals, with the last ten h2h meetings producing 47 goals with five going "over" the 4.5 goal line. The two most recent (last season) saw four goals in the capital and five in Seville and draws are incredibly rare, none in the last 20, 15 wins for Real, 5 for Sevilla.
 

There is no Cristiano Ronaldo , Gareth Bale, Pepe or Toni Kroos in the Real squad (see below) , but Real have wins and goals in their absence in pre season with victories over Bayern Munich and Chelsea and three goals inside the opening 38 minutes in the latter and there are plenty of players looking to impress and showcase their talents in the absence of the two big offensive stars. Sevilla are much changed since winning the Europa League , head coach Unai Emery has moved on to PSG and been replaced by Copa America winner Jorge Sampaoli , top scorer Kévin Gameiro has joined Atletico Madrid , Éver Banega has moved to Inter and Grzegorz Krychowiak has joined Emery in Paris. That is a lot of talent to lose, but Sevilla have been here before and are usually in a rebuilding process of some sort. They have spent some 60€m on new players and got a couple more on loan from Atletico as part of the Gameiro deal, one of whom, Luciano Vietto looked very lively in a friendly with Granada last week, that was Sevilla's sixth win in six warm up games and they looked good, really pressing hard and from the front, looking well ahead in terms of preparation and they played their first friendly, eleven days before Real. Sampaoli says his team needs time and that is true of course, but they look set to do themselves justice and give Real a very close game, the Argentine coach spoke about wanting to win this game, but about about it having to be in "the right way" and not at any cost and regardless of who is on the pitch, it is easy to see this game getting very stretched at times and the new head coach added: 'I want my team to focus more on the goal in front of them than the one behind them "

 

When Sevilla were pressing hard from the front against Granada they did get caught out once or twice and they will be vulnerable on the break. So it is easy to see goals, but Real are weakened today, their 20 man squad contains three keepers and four of the goals in warm up came from full backs, several of the 17 outfield players are said to be well short of up to 90 minutes currently and whilst we seem sure to see goals, I favour Sevilla with a new coach to impress and he the media, I feel they are a week or so ahead of Real and that the best value is with the "underdog".
 

That worked out well enough with Sevilla drawing in 90 minutes, but losing in extra time.
 
They conceded three there, five without scoring in two games with Barcelona and four at home to Espanyol. They will clearly still coming to terms with the new system and then decided to shut up shop for the trip to Villarreal which ended 0-0, they were a couple of minutes away from a home defeat to Las Palmas at the weekend , before the game turned with a dismissal and then two very late goals for Los Rojiblancos.
 
It has to be said they look far from the finished product at present, that is hardly surprising, they have lost half the starting eleven which won the Europa League just four months ago, are being asked to play a different way for their new coach and have anyway, always been stronger in the second half of recent campaigns, so it will take time. They lost all three road group stage games last season conceding eight goals , at least twice in each and were the only La Liga team not to post an away win all season, picking up 43 of 52 points on home soil.
 

They came away from that with a 0-0 draw and have certainly proved that they can shut up shop when they have to, with clean sheets at Juventus and Villarreal , two games inside four days in build up to this did them few favours and it was clear they targetted the first, the home derby with Betis and made the weekend trip to Bilbao with this fixture firmly in mind. Sevilla home and away are two very different animals and they are a match for anyone here and three points today, especially with a healthy margin of victory, is going to leave them in a very strong position in Group H with back to back games against Dinamo Zagreb up next.
 

Lyon opened with a 3-0 home defeat of Dinamo, but arrive here without several key players including their top scorer, the much admired,  Alexandre Lacazette and right back Rafael ,with his back up Christophe Jallet already sidelined, they do not have a "right back" in the squad and have included two 19 yo defenders with 90 minutes of league action between them and this is a key area for Sevilla to target. OL have lost 9 of 15 on the road in the Champions League and have not scored in two and a half away games in League 1, conceding four in that sequence. 3-0.
 
 

1.5 units Sevilla -1 ball 2.33 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

Good Luck.

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