I made what I though was a very good case for opposing Barelona and backing either Atletico Madrid or Real Madrid in the outright markets ahead of the quarter finals at circa 21.0 and 6.0 respectively and that was only some 7-8 weeks ago. Those notes are reproduced at the foot of this email and if you are on either, you have an exciting evening in prospect, if you went "each way" you are already in good profit and the only real reason to bet would be if you have taken Atleti at those very big odds and wanted to secure a little more profit regardless of result , by backing Real .
In terms of looking at this match "fresh", I have kind of split loyalties, but have sided with Atletico through the knockout stages and in terms of discipline, heart, desire work rate, they are the best "team" in world football for my money and if Diego Simeone asked any of the squad to run through a brick wall, you suspect they would do it and the only question would be what direction do they run in afterwards !
They are overdue, should have won in 2014 when they denied by Real and a cruel 94th minute equaliser from Sergio Ramos and today feels like payback, that year Real were 100% focused on winning 'La Decima', their 10th title after a 12 year wait since their 9th, it meant everything and always felt destined that season, even so very late in Lisbon. This year it doesn't mean quite so much and the boot is on the other foot, this means everything and then some to Atleti and they have certainly got here the hard way beating both Barcelona and Bayern Munich.
Ahead of Atletico's 2-0 quarter final win over Barcelona my preview read .................
I have spoken recently about Barcelona maybe looking a little tired/jaded and that has surely been backed up by the Catalan giants collecting just a single point from three La Liga starts, including losing to Real Sociedad last weekend. They did manage to win the home leg of this tie last Tuesday by a 2-1 scoreline, but Atletico controlled the first 30 minutes there and led courtesy of a Fernando Torres goal, before he turned from hero to villan by needlessly getting himself dismissed and that turned the game on it's head and playing with ten men for an hour against a team who move the ball as well and as quickly as Barce, was always likely to be a thankless task. My notes from that game, in which I spoke about how tough it was to defend the Champions League nowadays and highlighted why Barcelona could be running out of gas, the bad luck that Atleti had in recent h2h meetings and how tough the team from Madrid are to score against, are reproduced in full at the foot of this email and I would suggest that you start by re-reading those..
I suspect that Diego Simeone and his team will stick with their game plan, look to mainly defend and frustrate Barce and to try and win 1-0, the scoreline which would see them progress on the away goal rule. Barcelona do not need to win to progress and might be similarly happy to play out the opening period quietly and will be mindful that when they lost out to Atletico at this stage two years ago, it was a very similar scenario, 1-0 would see the hosts progress and they took a very early lead and then played like the away team, sat back and dared Barce to break them down. To be honest, the home side were much the better team for me in that game, despite having only 36% possession and flew out of the blocks, hitting the woodwork three times in the opening 19 minutes ! Maybe they will tear at the visitors again from the off, the home crowd will definitely be willing them to do so, but whether the goal comes early or late, I favour Atletico and feel that all the value remains with them and that odds of 2.30 + off level ball are wrong about two well matched teams and there are plenty of scorelines by which the hosts can win and Barce still be in the competition after 90 minutes, which I always feel is a bonus in these situations.
The morning after they had won I added ......
I do not think I have ever seen a team press like Atletico in the opening 45 minutes, they often had seven players in the Barcelona third when the Catalan side had gained possession and the best passing side of all time were anchored deep with nowhere to go. Once they took the lead Atletico dropped deeper and deeper, but I doubt they had too much choice over that, as despite their huge fitness levels and Simeone put them through hell in the off season to get as fit as they are, they were never going to be able to keep that up for 90 minutes +. That match made a mockery of possession stats, I do not know exactly how much of the ball Barcelona had in the opening 45 minutes, maybe 70% (?), but it was worthless possession and they were never going to hurt Atletico. The home side were by far the better team, Barce should have had a penalty late, which might have taken the game into extra time, but Iniesta played a big part in that move and should not have still been on the pitch after his handball for the penalty . Unbelievably good tactics from Simeone and his men, everyone says Barcelona were poor, they were nowhere near their best, but that would still have been good enough to beat most teams, but I think the real truth is that they are shattered and have run out of steam.
Ahead of their home leg with Bayern .........Now Atletico have to pitch themselves against another giant of European football in Bayern, but I see no reason to desert them. Bayern dominate the Bundesliga and that is half the problem, in that they are so rarely tested. At least in La Liga , the big three meet each other and the second best group, Athletic, Sevilla, Villarreal and Valencia are capable of pushing the best and have six european finals between them in the last dozen years (five wins) and might have another two finalists in the Europa League this season. Bayern's quality takes them through the early rounds, but I always feel they are at a disadvantage once we reach the business end due to lack of real and regular top quality opposition. I know they won the Champions League in 2013, but they were really an exceptional team that year and even a bit of a surprise package . Since the turn of the year they have played five top level games against three opponents, Juventus, Dortmund and Benfica and won just one (1-0) inside 90 minutes and are winless in their last seven away starts in the Champions League knockout stages .
Maybe they will go through over two legs, but I am not so sure and I just cannot agree with them being big favourites to win in Madrid, whereAtletico rarely lose and under Diego Simeone they have only conceded in 4 of 16 CL home games, he his bound to have a surprise or two in store for Guardiola and co and I have to go with ....
There have been ten Madrid derbies since that Lisbon final, Atletico have won five and lost only one, conceding just six goals, who concedes six goals in ten starts against Real Madrid ? The answer is no one of course and in the sole loss in that sequence, defeat was largely down to them having Arda Turan sent off and if they can keep eleven men on the pitch this evening, I see all the value as being with them. Gareth Bale has done part of Simeone's winding up work for him by suggesting that not one Atleti player would make it into the Real team, which is both stupid and wrong , Cristiano Ronaldo have been nursing an injury for the best part of two months and the focus of so much of what Real do offensively, has not scored in five games against Atletico.
UEFA Champions League: Barcelona- Atletico Madrid (written April 5th)
It is over 25 years since a team "repeated" in the Champions League/European Cup (Milan in 1990) and it was a decade before that for the previous time ( Nottingham Forest in 1980). It is hard to know exactly why that would be the case, over the last decade Barcelona have put together several teams which are frequently touted as the greatest club side of all time and they have won the competition four times, but have never been able to follow up and it is clear, stating the obvious, that it is now extremely difficult to win back to back titles.
My guess is that the physical and mental demands are simple too great nowadays, teams are worn out come the business end of the following campaign , due to the extended previous season, World Club Cup fixtures ( Barce have flown mid season to Japan after three of their wins) , huge demands on the winners to play highly lucrative pre season games around the world and in addition , most of the squad being called upon to play international football during the summer break at least every other year. All take a toll and the price has to be paid somewhere down the line, maybe Barce will buck the trend this season, someone will do so sooner or later, but I do not feel the Catalan giants offer good value (exactly the opposite) at quotes of 2.50 to win the competition, when they might have to pass Atletico who beat them at this stage in 2013-14 and then Bayern or Real Madrid, just to get the opportunity to play the final, by the way, only two teams have made back to back finals in the last 14 years . Anyway, we can probably agree it is a big ask and I think that in terms of winning the competition, Atletico at a juicy looking 21.0 and Real Madrid @ 6.0 make far more appeal.
I like both, but am betting Atletico today and think I will skip putting anything up "officially" outright as that always seems to result in more questions/complaints than it is worth, but I would like to point out something , Real are a general 6.0 to win, I think that is a very good price, each way most companies offer 1/3 of the odds 1-2 (so you will get odds of 5/3 for the place part.........reaching the final) which might be a little better. Bet 365 offer 1/2 the odds 1-2 and that is just plain wrong, that is 5/2 or 3.50 for them to reach the final, they are 1.06 with Sbobet to go through against Wolfsburg, if you think that is roughly correct, you get 3.30 for them to progress through the semis, the only team they can be close to those odds against is Barcelona ( I would personally not be that big in any case), even IF Barce qualify, there is still a 67% chance Real will avoid them in the last four and the team from Madrid have just won in the Camp Nou and have had no Copa del Rey commitments for many months. Since the start of December, Atletico have played 27 times, Barcelona 30, Real just 22 and I think that is starting to show. Barce showed signs in the games with Arsenal, Villarreal and Real that form had dipped a little and that is all it takes at this level of competition. Anyway, it is always worth looking at place odds in events "in running" late in competitions, bookmakers are often lazy in updating them and do not give them enough thought, the hard part is always "getting on" of course, but in this case the straight win odds about both "other" Spanish teams, but especially Real offer good value anyway.
I spoke about Atleti and how they were unfortunate not to have already won this competion and were perhaps the easiest winner ever of the Europa league in 2012, ahead of their round of 16 game with PSV .............
I suspect that PSV have already reached their target for the season in terms of the Champions League and it will be very difficult for them to progress any further against an Atletico side who are becoming one of the giants of European club football. The visitors coasting to the Europa League title in 2012 ( easiest winner in history ?) were a minute or two away from winning the Champions League in 2014 and are the only team to stop Barcelona reaching the semis in the last eight seasons and it is hard to make a case for anyone, other than the other "elite" clubs , putting them out of this year's competition and it is a very long time since any Dutch side was considered as such.
PSV won Eredivisie by 17 points last season, but are going toe to toe with Ajax this time round and currently lead the Amsterdam club by just a single point with ten rounds to play and,with a big difference in regard to next year's CL in terms of finishing first (directly into group stage) or second ( two qualifying rounds and four matches to play), you could make at least a case for the league game with Ajax, which comes just days after the return leg in Madrid being the most important game that they will play in the next month. Anyway, they have been strong at home all season and wins over Manchester United, Wolfsburg and CSKA Moscow in the group stage look impressive, but two of those have struggled domestically and they will be asked far more questions today and will have to answer them without top scorer and captain Luuk de Jong, who has 17 goals and 6 assists in the league and scored against CSKA and Wolfsburg. In his absence over the last two seasons PSVhave lost 4 of 6 starts ( lost 3/3 in Europe when he plays 20 minutes or less).
Atletico have been fast learners in how to play these games and you have to be to thrive and progress, but the trouble is the learning curve is steep and you do not get many goes to get it right ! I discussed this and how Diego Simeone had learned so much from previous ties and "how to play the CL" ahead of road games at Galatasaray and Benfica this season and notes on both can be found at the foot of this email (edit: see Feb 24th newsletter). I think his and his team's ( almost) sole focus from here on in will be the Champions League and given how strong they are defensively and on the break, I doubt any team in Europe, maybe Barcelona aside, is better equipped to play these kind of away games, especially against what is, it has to be said, now a very inexperienced team at this level of competition, playing their first CL knockout game in a decade. Atletico will want that cherished away goal and just one might be enough to win this, but Atleti scored two in the two road games in the competition in which we have backed them and IMO this fixture is not much more difficult. Atletico have posted a La Liga high nine road wins and only Barcelona have scored against them in their last five away starts, apart from games against the "big 2" , they have kept clean sheets in 67% of all starts and even then, many of those conceded were either late consolations or in meaningless ( already won ) fixtures.
Ahead of the return leg, I spoke about how they were unlucky not to have won the first meeting and that they had since found a few goals, also the fitness regime that Diego Simeone had put his players through in pre season ............
Atleti should have won the first leg, but did keep a 12th clean sheet in 16 Champions League starts and have what is widely considered the best defense in European football. They have been a little short of goals ahead of that game, but have won their last four , scoring ten, including a derby win against Real, so they look in better form now and appear to have a firm grasp on second place in La Liga, albeit with little chance of catching leaders Barcelona. That will concentrate their mind fully on the CL and I doubt they will even give a second thought to their weekend trip to basement club Sporting Gijon, until tomorrow morning.
PSV still have that one point lead over Ajax and entertain their Amsterdam rivals on Sunday, of course they will give tonight's game priority, but do run the risk of giving everything, coming up short and then having little left at the weekend and falling short on both counts, as they are not going to be able to come even close to a result this evening, without a superhuman effort. They arrive without suspended forward Gaston Pereiro, but do have Luuk de Jong ( see above) back and with him, their offensive threat increases, but I can only see one winner.
Much talk has been made about the gruelling summer fitness campaign that Diego Simeone put his players through, but it is hard to get away from the feeling that all the benefits of that are kicking in now and his squad are getting stronger, whilst others are feeling the effects of eight months of football. PSV created just one attempt that required to be saved in the first leg and their task is harder today, although perhaps more clear cut, they have lost 9 of 12 road games in the competition and will hit double figures today and if and once the tie feels beyond them and that might be a subconscious decision, thoughts might then turn to Ajax. That will require a second goal at least for Atleti and that is back to where we started this preview !
They made very hard work of that game and needed the lottery of a penalty shoot out to progress, but had 26 attempts on goal, were again denied by the inform visiting keeper and few teams win any knockout competitions without one close shave along the way and maybe this wasAtletico's. They were unable to lift themselves for that trip to Gijon (see above) which would have been given low priority, but returned from the international break to put five past Real Betis last weekend. Since knocking Barcelona out of the competition two years ago, they have not beaten the Catalan club and have lost the last five all by a single goal, but they led in two of those and ended games with nine men twice. If they can keep their discipline, without losing their competitive edge and Simeone will surely see that doesn't happen a third time, then I see big value in the visitors with the full goal handicap start. We all know about the huge offensive threat that Barcelona possess, but we are also talking about the best defence in Europe and if my counting was correct, it is 64 competitive league games since Atletico lost by two or more and they have actually conceded twice only seven times in that sequence and two of those fixtures I would argue that they were "not overly interested" in. By the way, Bayern, Real and Atletico have all had more attempts on goal than Barce in the competition this season, both in total and on target. It has to be the visitors with the handicap start for me.
