Wimbledon : Ladies Final betting tip: Venus Williams- Garbine Muguruza

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Wimbledon : Ladies Final betting tip: Venus Williams- Garbine Muguruza

 

Potential classic in prospect. We are already on Venus to win and she was tipped at odds of 4.0 + (see notes at the foot of this email) so cards are on the table and I see no reason to not be confident.
 
Garbine Muguruza saw off a timid Magdalena Rybarikova 1&1 in the semis, the Slovakian looked like a rabbit caught in car headlights and simply froze on the biggest stage of her life and, despite reaching the last 4 at Wimbledon, probably woke up on Friday feeling very unhappy with her (lack of) performance. The 2016 French Open champion played well, but had no opposition, she looks back close to her best and mentally is in a far better position than we saw earlier in the season, when she was a mess and the appoinment of Conchita Martinez as coach for the England "swing" was very astute and has worked out incredibly well. Muguruza is a super confident player when on form, perhaps too much so, but that is better than having none, which was the case a month ago and she looks back to that level post Roland Garros 2016, when she clearly felt for a few weeks (and let people know) that she was the best player on the planet. That was quickly knocked out of her and I hope this time she finds a dividing line between the two extremes. Fingers crossed that it is Venus who helps her find some balance.
 
Williams the elder saw off Johanna Konta in a little over 70 minutes 6-4 6-2 and the British player won just 7/21 points on second serve (see stats below). It was an incredibly professional win, with Konta enjoying few chances on the Williams serve and afterwards Venus was very calm and focus was already turned towards the final and her first words were : "I couldn’t have asked for more but I’ll ask for more. "One more win will be amazing. "It won’t be a given but I’ll give it my all. "I know [the crowd] love Jo and she gave it her all today. "I think my experience helped a lot. "I’m just so happy. "Both Garbine and I play so well on grass. "I’ll have to ask Serena (who defeated Muguruza in the 2015 final) for advice."
 
H2h wise, the only recent meeting came on clay in Rome this year with Muguruza winning in three, Venus has won the three fast court contests.
 
In spite of what Williams said about them both playing well on grass, there is, as you might expect ,a huge gulf in experience, Muguruza is 27-14 on the surface and has struggled a lot against fellow tall players, 2-2 on grass versus those who are 1.83m and on all surfaces 7-17 lifetime v opponents that tall, losing 15 of the last 20 and dropping a set in all bar one of those, actually, she has won in two sets just once in those 24 matches. Hard to see then how she will beat one of the greatest of all time on the surface, today in straight sets, so, as a minimum, we have Venus, who is the stronger metally, taking this into a decider.
 
Venus is 94-18 on grass (with 87 wins at Wimbledon, one more than Serena, a dozen more than Steffi Graf to give that some context, Navratilova has more, but played until she was at least 89 years old !), she is 6-1 v those who are 1.83m + and 18-3 against those 1.78m + with only one of those losses coming when her ranking was top 20. So no issues for her playing tall opponents.
 
Serve seems sure to dominate again and it will come down to small margins and I have to think that Venus holds all those tiny edges and I expect her to play the bigger points a little better. I still cannot get out of my mind how fragile Muguruza was in the Spring and she is not guaranteed to hold it together on such a massive occasion if things start to run away from her at any stage. Of course, we have no need to get involved, but I do feel Venus should be a reasonably solid favourite and around 57% feels more correct than her current odds of 47 %. Venus to win @ circa 2.07-2.10 if you are not already on.
 
If any of you are looking at alternative markets,I can tell you that Muguruza has only one ace against Venus in 30 service games on fast courts and did not serve any against Cirstea in R3 and only five in total in her quarter and semi final despite almost no pressure on her serve in those three matches, so, not many in prospect for her today.

 

Good Luck.

 

Wimbledon: WTA  (written July 13th)

Johanna Konta - Venus Williams

 

These two have met twice this year, I previewed the most recent and those notes are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off. It was on clay in Rome, so has little real relevance, but it provides some background info and also touches upon their meeting a few weeks prior to that on a hard court (Konta's favourite surface) in Miami, where the Brit won 6-4 7-5, with Venus gifting her almost three games worth of double faults. Williams the elder gained some revenge in Rome winning in three, neither are at their best on clay, but Venus will take confidence from that. Grass is her favourite surface and she is a five time Wimbledon winner and also three time runner up, to Serena each time, without her sister in the picture previously, she would probably be looking at a 9th or 10th title this year (maybe more without her illness issues) and lay claim to the GOAT on grass and in truth, at her peak, she was not far off. Venus is not at that level currently, but doesn't have to be, she is the only former winner left in, is in her best form for years and took Serena close in Australia in the first major of the year back in January. Most importantly of all, she doesn't have to worry about her sister this time round. ahead of that final I wrote ..............
 
I spoke about how wonderful it would be to get another all Williams slam final a decade and a half plus after the first , we have it, it will be something to savour and hopefully the match will rival the occasion. It is eight years since Venus' last slam decider and 14 years since her first and only appearance in the final here at Melbourne, but we can hope that facing her little sister across the net will make it seem more familiar an occasion and that nerves will not overly play a part.
 
This is their 28th meeting, but only 5th since 2009, two of those came on hardcourts (1-1) and both went to three sets and that at a time when Serena was #1 and Venus dealing with so many illness and injury issues. Serena has yet to be taken to a decider this tournament, but was pushed to the limit, far, far closer than the scoreline indicates by Barbora Strycova in a 7-5 6-4 win. The revitalised Czech player who has featured heavily in my notes this month went on court believing she could beat Serena, took the game to the best player on the planet and was crestfallen when she came up short, that is what you need to bring to the party to beat Williams the younger and what so few have the self belief to do.
 
However, Venus brings that and also something else and even after two decades on Tour and another one before that starting on public courts in LA, the psychology between the two remains complex , unlike any two other players in tennis and with that comes unpredictability. Venus still thinks of herself as a champion, which she is and without the injury issues, would have several more slam titles to her name and spoke about this after her semi final win, which she celebrated with total unbridled joy. I have reproduced the full interview below the "good luck" sign off, but want to highlight this comment ....." Even the matches I'm not winning, I'm still in control, normally, of every match that I have the opportunity. "It's on my racquet, always putting myself in position to be where I need to be." That, to me, just hghlights the self belief she still has.
 
In their last meeting, in the US Open of 2015, Venus was very much the aggressor and attacked Serena from the start pretty relentlessly and despite dropping the first set 6-2, took the second 6-1 and looked enroute to victory, but her sister's big first serve prevailed in the third. I think it might have to again, Venus has a better read on Serena's second than anyone else, as you might expect, she has certainly seen more of it and from both sides of the net and she had little sis gambling big time that day, it paid off, but she made a number of double faults, Venus won just about the same number of points on return and there was only a cigarette paper between them.
 

Venus brings the belief and confidence to the mix and stirs it up with some knowledge and unpredictability that only comes when two people are so close.
 

Lots of good stuff in there and for me, the key thing is how Venus still and probably always has, viewed herself. I have included the interview again too at the foot of this email, it gives an insight into what this all still means to her, how she adapted and was prepared to gamble in her semi and I think that will get her over the line today. My quarter final notes on Konta can be read on the clubgowi website.
 
The British player was taken to the brink there, as she was previously by Donna Vekic and Caroline Garcia and she could easily have lost any of those, perhaps should have lost all three, but absolutely refused to, all credit to her for that, but Venus is mentally stronger than that trio and will certainly show more aggression at key moments than Halep. It also means that Konta has played in two of the five longest matches at these championships (Vekic was the longest at 3 hours 10 minutes) . Williams has looked increasingly solid, especially on serve (53% unreturned against Ostapenko), she has made more d/f's than the other semi finalists, but key stat is unreturned first serve where she is at 46% ( average for tournament is 29% and the other three are 29-37) and unreturned second serve 30%( average 18% and the other three 12-18), she is also getting 7% more balls in play than Konta and she has an advantage in what is likely to be the deciding shot (serve) in a match where they will be plenty of quick points. This should be close, but Venus has to be favourite for me.

 

1.5 units Venus Williams to beat Johanna Konta 2.16 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.
 
 
I think odds are roughly correct on Muguruza- Rybarikova and feel there is better value in scaling down my bet on Venus a little, skipping this match and taking Williams outright too............

 

1.25 units Venus Williams to win outright 4.0 general quote..............4.13 Pinnacle Sports.

 

 

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