Moyes back at Old Trafford

football betting tips -

Premier League: Manchester United- Everton

 
This is a nice pick for MNF with plenty at stake, the hosts could move up to 5th win the win and three points would take Everton level with United, Tottenham and Liverpool in midtable.
 
United had not won back to back EPL games for 11 months until they went one further and won three in a row in October and that eased a lot of pressure on Ruben Amorim. However, I am still not a believer, the head coach is too rigid in formation and often starts players out of position to stick with his preferred/beloved 3-4-2-1/3-4-3. With this lineup they are defensively vulnerable, especially to pace and/or balls in behind and whilst they followed up those three wins with two 2-2 draws, they rode their luck in both games and scored four goals from a combined xG of 1.4.
 
Most of you know that I like goal difference as a decent starting point and indicator of underlying ability and in 23/24 they finished 8th with a negative GD which is hard to do, were 15th last season and across these two and a bit campaigns they are a net -10 goals and that is not good and certainly not Manchester United, still one of the biggest clubs in world football. Issues have only been papered over and ultimately, those three wins have probably not done the club any long term favours. 
 
Everton are in transition, but, I would argue in a good place and already heading upwards. David Moyes returned to the club as head coach in January with the Toffees one point above the drop zone and having scored just 15 goals. They picked up 31 points subsequently with a +8 goal difference and those numbers are, respectively 8th and 6th place levels. Everton actually finished 13th which was their highest finish since 2020/21 and Moyes restored confidence in players who were devoid of it and almost instantly. This is his second spell at the club and I think that people forget just how good he was, he spent 11 years at Goodison Park, before leaving for Manchester United to replace Sir Alex Ferguson, which were always going to be tough shoes to fill, especially when those shoes were still at Old Trafford most days ! Anyway, in his last eight seasons on Merseyside, Everton finished 6-5-5-8-7-7-6-5 and were being heavily tipped to break into the Big 6 cartel. His record in four seasons at West Ham United was just as impressive, especially given what has happened since his departure , under him they finished 6-7-14-9 and won a first European trophy in 58 years and first of any sort since 1981. In his last 14 full seasons in the EPL he has guided teams to 12 top 9 finishes ( 11 top 8's) and we are talking about clubs that have struggled either side of those appointments. 
 
Moyes knows what makes this club tick and is very good with average EPL teams ( no disrespect) when he has a little backing and a full season in which to work. The Toffees have moved into their new stadium and the Friedkin group, who also own Roma, have large settled or at least restructured long standing financial problems and the club spent a net £100m+ this summer, more than the previous seven cash strapped seasons combined. The Group have apparently invested another £152m since the start of the season, £45m in October and £107m last week, some of which will be used in the January transfer window and some to further reduce debt and they look very stable as a club ATM. 
 
Performances have largely been good, expected numbers have them level with United and since Moyes took over, they have thrived in these types of games, being 6-3-1 on the road to teams who finished outside the top 4 last season, posting a 14-7 goal difference. He will say otherwise, but given what happened when he replaced Sir Alex, I cannot believe there is a game in any EPL stadium which means more to Moyes than a trip to Old Trafford and he will surely have his squad primed for today. 
 
I expect Everton to score (United have kept just one clean sheet in 12 starts this season, conceding 2+ goals in 7 of the last 10) and incredibly, given what a lowly point they were starting from, the visitors are 14-9-1 since Moyes arrived when they score a goal.
 
2.25 units Everton +0.25 ball @ 2.57 asian line.
 
Good luck!
 
 

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