Belgium - Egypt (Seattle)
Belgium: Renton, WA (Seattle Sounders performance centre) 9/1. I am in two, or maybe three minds about them. They won 10 of 12 games at the 2014 and 2018 finals, but have disappointed at the last two major championships. However, they have been scoring for fun recently with 34 goals in their last 10 starts, but again, by contrast their golden generation has passed and a handful of their key players are (too long) in the tooth (three midfielders are aged 33/34/37) and I am not sure they are going to thrive in conditions as the tournament progresses. Having said that, they are in a good group and the weather for their early games should be manageable, but after that, we shall see
Egypt: Spokane, WA (Gonzaga University) 29/9. They have a great AFCON record, but have been big World Cup underachievers. However, I really like their base in Spokane, which is a beautiful and relaxing city in Washington State and perfect for their games in Seattle and Vancouver, with similar weather and very easy travel in and out. They are in a group with Belgium, Iran and New Zealand and play them in that order and will be hoping the Belgians start like they did (in terms of performance) against Canada in Qatar ( see above). It is not a particularly tough section and the winner stays in Seattle and faces a 3rd placed team, the runner up plays in Dallas, but the weather there will not concern Egypt and they would play a runner up from what I feel is one of the weaker sections.
Egypt lost narrowly at AFCON to Senegal in the semi finals (they beat Ivory Coast 3-2 in the quarter finals) where they were too timid, but hopefully learned something from that and that was their only defeat in 11 starts, they have kept four clean sheets in four subsequent starts ( nine were on the road) including a 2-0 draw with Spain in Spain. They eased to WC qualifying with a 8-2-0 record and 20-2 goal difference and their current FIFA ranking of #29 is highest since 2017. Egypt have two big names up top in Mo Salah and Omar Marmoush and a big core of players from regional superpower Al-Ahly, which makes for an experienced group who know each other well. I assume this will be a WC farewell for Salah who is a global icon and the biggest sporting star to ever come out of the nation and he and Egypt want this to end on a positive note.
Update: I have already put up two bets on Egypt so have no need for a third, but it goes without saying that I feel they are too big at odds of close to 6.0 today. I hope that they will play bravely and I do expect them to score, Belgium conceded twice in losing to a CAF side at the last WC and conceded three goals in their two warm up games in North America, versus the US and Mexico. I would be happy to pass , but if you twisted my arm, Egypt off level ball at big odds or 1.75 units both teams to score @ 1.99 asian line.
Saudi Arabia - Uruguay (Miami)
Saudi Arabia: Austin, TX (Austin FC Stadium) 61/21. Opened with a 2-1 win over Argentina four years ago, but still finished bottom of their group after losing to Mexico and Poland. They look to have regressed a little subsequently, which is a surprise, all but one play in their domestic league and with all the money and big name players involved in that, you would expect the ability of Saudi nationals to have risen and maybe it will at some stage. They host the 2034 WC and everything will be about building towards that and even the 2027 AFC Asian Cup which they also host in January ( their first ever major event) might be viewed as more important . They finished a long way adrift of Japan and Australia in qualifying, on a par with Indonesia and the AFC did everything they could, IMO, to get them here (they hosted the final playoff stage). I think we might see a repeat of four years ago, one big performance.
Uruguay: Cancun, MX (Mayakoba Training Centre Cancun) 17/2. Ahead of the last WC I noted .... They have made it through the group stage at the last three WC's and the change in head coach from Oscar Tabarez , who had been in charge for 15 years and was 75 years old, to Diego Alonso, was well timed and probably overdue. However, half of the starting eleven have probably arranged to collect their pension from the embassy in Doha whilst in Qatar. They did not make it out of their group and whilst they have a younger squad now, it is not exactly talent laden, especially up top, where Darwin Nunez is the main guy and he has struggled in Saudi and we know he needs 15 chances to get one on target! On a more positive note, Marcelo Bielsa is now head coach, he is "fun" if not a little eccentric and I saw him walking up and down measuring out the pitch pre kickoff at Brentford once. He will forever have a special place in clubgowi hearts for all the winning bets at big odds he landed for us when with Athletic Bilbao, now, they were a good watch! I am not sure his style is suited to international football nowadays and especially in the conditions here at the end of long domestic seasons. If he has been trying to get those double and treble training sessions into players in the little time available, they will be worn out before the tournament starts. The 5-1 loss to the US is a shocker, I know it was a friendly, but still!
Update: Cancun seems an odd choice of venue for Uruguay to me, it has no real football history and is a party city and, they play their first two games in Miami, which will be a four hour round trip flight and probably almost double that in transit time. I also have some other issues with them and they feel like a nation in transit and I am not sure that how Bielsa insists his teams play, is conducive to the weather they are going to face and Miami will be hot, steamy and stormy on Monday. Saudi beat Argentina in their opener in Qatar four years ago and I expect one big showing from them in the US and it is more likely sooner rather than later. The AFC team played CONMEBOL opposition in the US earlier this year and a good one in Ecuador and achieved the rare feat ( see yesterday's email) of scoring against La Tri albeit in a 2-1 defeat. Uruguay are winless in four, conceding five to the US and played a 2-2 draw with Canada in the US (Charlotte) in last year's Copa America.
2 units both teams to score @ 2.38 asian line and I would also not totally rule out the upset Saudi win at odds of circa 8.20 and the cynic in me thinks that FIFA would like that .
Iran - New Zealand (Los Angeles)
Iran: Tijuana, MX (Centro Xoloitzcuintle) 21/15. I am glad to see that common sense has prevailed and that Iran has been moved from a base in Tucson, Arizona, to just across the border in Tijuana , Mexico, albeit along with 300 security personnel assigned by FIFA! In addition to not being based in a country they are at war with (!), they only have to make a 219 km trip up to LA for their first two games and then stay on the West Coast on matchday 3 playing in Seattle. They face New Zealand (#85)/Belgium (#9)/ Egypt (#29) in that order and to be honest, should be pleased with their base, the venues they are asked to play at and their draw. The Kiwis are the lowest ranked team in the competition and the other two have seen better times (it is all relative!) and Iran will arrive ranked #21, having spent three weeks in Turkey together beforehand, where they were busy filling out visa applications for the US and we will see how that pans out. Having decided that they can play, I hope that this can all be decided on footballing merits, but the US is not happy with all staff members attending and LA county has the largest concentration of "Iranians" outside of Iran, with estimates ranging from between 300,000-700,000 many living in "Tehrangeles". These US-Iranian citizens have very mixed feelings about the conflict, although almost all do not support the current Iranian regime. There is the possibility of these protesting, maybe US citizens too and this could all get nasty. Star player Sardar Azmoun has been left out of the squad for political reasons and this divides opinion further, with some players desperately trying to have him reinstated.
The Team Melli squad have played very little competitive football recently, there has been no domestic league action in over three months and the national team have played only friendlies since September and just three in 2026. They are however, disciplined and hard to break down, like to sit in a low block and are VERY physical, looking to play on the counter. They played in the last three World Cups, were eliminated at the group stage each time and were a combined 2-2-5 with a 7-13 goal difference , but were only heavily beaten once, that was 6-2 by England but that game was MUCH closer than the score line suggests ( xG 2.3-1.7, BC's 3-2 and ITB 10-6 ) . They posted wins over Morocco and Wales, drew with Portugal and Nigeria and lost 1-0 to Argentina, Spain and the US. The win over Wales came on a very hot day in Qatar which might augur well if it gets hot in LA . In the Russian edition they were very unlucky to lose to Spain and looked a really good side when they opened up, but they do have to be "forced" to do so.
New Zealand: San Diego (University of San Diego - Torero Stadium) 85/47. They qualified by winning the OFC section, but probably would not have done so had Australia taken part and technically they should have. The two teams NZ faced in the semi final and final of that process were ranked #157 and #151. Australia left that Confederation in 2006 because of the lack of competition and that is what NZ face. The All Whites finished qualifying 15 months ago and are 1-1-8 in ten subsequent friendlies. Some eight of the squad play in England, but only striker Chris Wood, who is by far their star player, earns his living in the EPL, the other at a lower level, one in Tier 3 another in Tier 4 and one even in Tier 6 ( that is Tommy Smith who once played 8 games on loan for, yes, you guessed it, Brentford!....in League 1). That highlights the lack of competition/ depth in the playing pool. They qualified twice before, in 1982 when they lost all three games scoring two goals and in 2010 when they drew all three scoring two goals. They might be as tough to beat again, but they play a more possession based game nowadays, as OFC games are so easy (14-1-0 in the last 15, with a 64-4 goal difference), so might not so easily be able to defend without the ball against stronger opposition.
Update: Iran are in a VERY odd situation, they are at "home" ( see above) in LA, but playing in a country they are at war with, which is a position few sports teams will ever have faced. The first instinct when you consider odds of circa 1.80 is that they feel skinny, but on reflection, maybe less so. They are 64 ranking points above New Zealand and if this was Denmark- Haiti or Switzerland- Curacao which would be almost identically ranked pairings, I feel odds would be shorter, maybe significantly so. But I still feel it is best to go with that first feeling and I will have to pass.
