As many of you know I have supported Brentford man and boy and have seen them play live over 1,500 times and most of those have been at League 1 level or below and it it has given me a very firm handle on what is required to thirve in the third tier and my record with outright bets in that league is superb. After winning big on champions Portsmouth last season, it was frustating that this season's selection Rotherham United never got going, but we bounced back straight away in the playoffs when I made Charlton Athletic (see below) a strong selection and they got the job dome yesterday and will be playing Championship football next season. 

 

 

 

2024/25				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		Birmingham City	46	34	9	3	84	31	+53	111	WWWW	23	19	4	0	47	11	23	15	5	3	37	20
	2		Wrexham	46	27	11	8	67	34	+33	92	WWWX	23	16	5	2	41	15	23	11	6	6	26	19
	3		Stockport County	46	25	12	9	72	42	+30	87	WWWX	23	16	4	3	42	22	23	9	8	6	30	20
	4		Charlton Athletic	46	25	10	11	67	43	+24	85	WLWW	23	15	6	2	38	16	23	10	4	9	29	27
	5		Wycombe Wanderers	46	24	12	10	70	45	+25	84	LLLW	23	12	6	5	27	18	23	12	6	5	43	27
	6		Leyton Orient	46	24	6	16	72	48	+24	78	WWWW	23	12	4	7	33	19	23	12	2	9	39	29

 

 

 

 

Anyway, I have a fairly strong opinion in the playoffs and that is for Charlton Athletic , who won for us in 2018-19 (see above). First the numbers.....

 

Last 19 seasons (since we have been previewing them) :  Teams finishing 3rd have won eight times, the team in 4th five , 5th and 6th on three occasions each. 

 

 

Points picked up over the second half of the season :  Charlton Athletic 51 points ( +17 compared to their first 23 games), Stockport County 50 (+13) , Leyton Orient 44 (+10) and Wycombe Wanderers 34 (-16). It is very unusual for three teams to have double digit improvement through the second half of the campaign and it makes the Wycombe numbers look disastrous.

 

Across the last 10 games: Stockport 25 pts, Orient 25, Charlton 22 and Wycombe 16. Again, three teams to have 20+ points is not common.

 

In terms of h2h round robin (games between the four teams this season):  Charlton Athletic 14 points ( 4-2-0), Stockport County 8 pts (2-2-2), Wycombe 6 pts ( 2-0-4), Orient 6 pts (2-0-4). Where to start , as there is a lot in between the bare stats. Charlton were unbeaten and far and away the best, also, no team scored more or conceded fewer (3 was 5-8 goals better than the other three teams), County were winless at home, conceding 9 goals and Wanderers won the first two in early season, lost the last four including by a combined 1-7 to County (1-3) and Athletic (0-4) in their last two home games.

 

Wycombe really look up against it and all the numbers highlight that, they lost their head coach mid-season and after his departure suffered a 0.8 points per game drop off and he took all the self belief with him! Incoming boss Mike Dodds lost all six games against playoff contenders (top 7). Top scorer Richard Kone (18 goals) has not scored since March 18th and second top Daniel Udoh (9) only once since March 4th, no one else has scored more than 7 goals. They lost both games to Athletic by a combined 6-1 and this is the draw that Charlton were surely looking for, playing the team in the worst form and whom they have bossed. 

 

I think County- Orient is closer than odds would suggest, with Stockport almost half the odds, recent form is close and the East London side are full of confidence and only champions Birmingham City have scored more goals. We have some history with County as we were tracking them in National League North and the National League and five years ago I wrote .....

 

 

Here they are three promotions later and with the chance to reach the Championship two years ahead of schedule! Don't say that you didn't read it here first!

 

I would not be too disheartened to see them go up, but I think they have  a tough game and this is their first season in League 1 in 16 years and they have risen quickly and another campaign at this level might leave them stronger when they do eventually go up. 

 

Charlton are the bigger of the four clubs by some way, they have an average attendance of over 15,000 , the others are all under 10k and Wanderers barely over 5k. Athletic have spent three seasons in the Championship in the last decade and were in the EPL between 1998-2007. They have had an awful time of things off the pitch in recent seasons, but those issues seem behind them now and if they go up I will write something about the ownership set up ahead of next season. Nathan Jones is head coach, his coaching career went quickly from flavour of the month to, if not exactly drinking in the last chance saloon, then needing to make this job a success as every time he left Luton Town (twice), things didn't work out well and he needed to be known as more than a one trick pony. At Town he was wildly successful and took them up from League 2 and laid much of the groundwork for their following two promotions, so knows how to build a squad . You can watch his interview from after the Addicks final league game when he speaks about "being on the brink of achieving something big".

 

After an indifferent start to their season and we saw this at times with Luton, Charlton have averaged 2.26 since their pre Christmas fixture and with a +25 goal difference across those 27 games. That equates to 104 points and +43 goals for a full season and that is first place level form in 19 seasons out of 20, or maybe more. They will have a tough final, but I expect them to get there and they have to be the value call at this stage.

 

2.5 units Charlton Athletic to win the League 1 playoffs @ 3.20-3.40 general quote.

 

Good luck!