Premier League: Aston Villa- Chelsea

 

We have been taking on Villa and they have recorded just one win in six starts and scored only four times in that sequence. Their form is as far removed from a top 3-4 team as it is possible to be in the EPL and this is not a new development, just a case of results finally matching performances and at the start of last month ahead of a home defeat to Brentford , who played most of the game with 10 men I noted....  Villa have already been outplayed twice by the Bees (one cup) and are surely headed for a levelling out in the EPL. They have outperformed their xP by 18 points which is almost unheard of in the top flight and the Bees have underperformed theirs by 5-6 giving us a 23+ point swing over the actual table. Longer term subscribers might recall that this makes the 20+ point swing that we have spoken of as very worthy of note in the past, in fact we were seeking them out and it is very rare for this to crop up in the EPL at all , let alone with only 60% of the season played.  Villa are running in quicksand ATM and are very vulnerable. 

 

Chelsea have only lost to Arsenal in their last 10 starts and have scored 21 goals in that sequence and look far more likely of the two teams to keep the strong trends that this fixture has thrown up going. The last nine h2h meetings here at famous old Villa Park ( one of the EPL's great away days.....there are not as many as you might think!) have seen eight produce 3+ goals , with both teams scoring in 6 of the last 7. The visitors are also the best second half road team in the EPL with 27 points, 16 goals scored is the second most and 7 conceded the joint fewest and interestingly they have won the SH 2-0 twice in their last four trips to VP.