Last season's table.....

 

2024/25				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		Bayern München	34	25	7	2	99	32	+67	82	WWXW	17	14	2	1	53	16	17	11	5	1	46	16
	2		Bayer Leverkusen	34	19	12	3	72	43	+29	69	XLXW	17	10	4	3	36	22	17	9	8	0	36	21
	3		Eintracht Frankfurt	34	17	9	8	68	46	+22	60	WXXW	17	10	4	3	41	22	17	7	5	5	27	24
	4		Borussia Dortmund	34	17	6	11	71	51	+20	57	WWWW	17	11	3	3	44	19	17	6	3	8	27	32
	5		SC Freiburg	34	16	7	11	49	53	-4	55	LWXW	17	9	3	5	32	26	17	7	4	6	17	27
	6		FSV Mainz 05	34	14	10	10	55	43	+12	52	XWXL	17	6	8	3	24	18	17	8	2	7	31	25
	7		RB Leipzig	34	13	12	9	53	48	+5	51	LOXL	17	8	6	3	33	23	17	5	6	6	20	25
	8		SV Werder Bremen	34	14	9	11	54	57	-3	51	WOXO	17	5	6	6	21	26	17	9	3	5	33	31
	9		VfB Stuttgart	34	14	8	12	64	53	+11	50	WWWL	17	7	2	8	35	27	17	7	6	4	29	26
	10		Borussia Mönchengladbach	34	13	6	15	55	57	-2	45	LLXL	17	7	3	7	29	26	17	6	3	8	26	31
	11		VfL Wolfsburg	34	11	10	13	56	54	+2	43	WXLL	17	3	7	7	27	30	17	8	3	6	29	24
	12		FC Augsburg	34	11	10	13	35	51	-16	43	LLLL	17	6	5	6	18	20	17	5	5	7	17	31
	13		1.FC Union Berlin	34	10	10	14	35	51	-16	40	WLXX	17	5	6	6	18	23	17	5	4	8	17	28
	14		St.Pauli	34	8	8	18	28	41	-13	32	LXLO	17	3	5	9	10	19	17	5	3	9	18	22
	15		TSG Hoffenheim	34	7	11	16	46	68	-22	32	LXXL	17	4	5	8	25	36	17	3	6	8	21	32
	16		1.FC Heidenheim	34	8	5	21	37	64	-27	29	LWOW	17	3	2	12	13	33	17	5	3	9	24	31
	17		Holstein Kiel	34	6	7	21	49	80	-31	25	LLWW	17	4	2	11	24	41	17	2	5	10	25	39
	18		VfL Bochum	34	6	7	21	33	67	-34	25	WLOX	17	3	4	10	16	33	17	3	3	11	17	34

Holstein Kiel and Bochum were relegated (Heidenheim survived the playoff) and were replaced by two much bigger teams in 1.FC Koln and Hamburger SV who had, wait for it, respective average attendances of 50k and 56k in the second tier last season. That would have put them 7th and 5th in the top flight and top 8 in the EPL.

 

 

It has been a long time coming and a lot of near misses, but Hamburg are back in the top flight after seven seasons in the second tier, finishing top 4 in each! They have not spent as big as I felt they might, but they have added experience which they were short of. Yussuf Poulsen has played 230+ Bundesliga games for Leipzig and he and Nicolas Capaldo have some 60-70 Champions League games between them. Nicolai Remberg played 32 games for Kiel last season. The signing of CF/RW Rayan Philippe looks interesting, he has had two good seasons with Eintract Braunschweig in the second tier with 13 goals and 6 assists from in 24/25 a 19 goal contribution in a bottom three team who only scored 38 (50%).

 

 

Rollercoaster ride for Köln in the last decade, two relegations, two 2.Bundesliga titles and two top 7 finishes in the top flight. They had a transfer embargo which ended in January, they made a few low profile signings then and have stepped up a bit in this window , but the losses of Tim Limperle to Hoffenheim ( see below) and Damion Downs to Southampton feel huge, the pair contributed 20 goals and 11 assists in a team that were champions, but were only 10th highest scorers in the second tier! They have only replaced the pair with one striker, Ragnar Ache, who has scored 34 in two second tier seasons with Kaiserslautern, but he is 27yo and never made the Bundesliga breakthrough with Eintract Frankfurt earlier in his career. As of now, goals have to be a concern.

 

The Bundesliga needs these two almost as much as the reverse is true and surely both could be (relatively) big players down the line, but first have to re-establish themselves at the top table, one area of concern for both is that

neither was much better last season than the team in 9th place, gap was 8-10 points .......

 

2024/25				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		1.FC Köln	34	18	7	9	53	38	+15	61	WWXL	17	9	4	4	33	18	17	9	3	5	20	20
	2		Hamburger SV	34	16	11	7	78	44	+34	59	LWWL	17	8	7	2	44	20	17	8	4	5	34	24
	3		SV Elversberg	34	16	10	8	64	37	+27	58	WWWX	17	9	3	5	39	25	17	7	7	3	25	12
	4		SC Paderborn 07	34	15	10	9	56	46	+10	55	LWWX	17	8	3	6	30	23	17	7	7	3	26	23
	5		1.FC Magdeburg	34	14	11	9	64	52	+12	53	WLLX	17	5	7	5	28	29	17	9	4	4	36	23
	6		Fortuna Düsseldorf	34	14	11	9	57	52	+5	53	LWXX	17	7	5	5	29	27	17	7	6	4	28	25
	7		Kaiserslautern	34	15	8	11	56	55	+1	53	LWXW	17	9	5	3	34	22	17	6	3	8	22	33
	8		Karlsruher SC	34	14	10	10	57	55	+2	52	WXXW	17	9	4	4	31	24	17	5	6	6	26	31
	9		Hannover 96	34	13	12	9	41	36	+5	51	XXWW	17	8	7	2	23	15	17	5	5	7	18	21

 

That gap ( down to 9th) was 21-22 points in 2023/24 and 22 in 2022/23.

 

XGD also suggested that Hamburg were some 20 goals worse than their flattering +34 goal difference.

 

 

Heidenheim have spent the last two seasons in the top flight, the first in their history and they finished 8th and 16th. Incredibly, in that first season they qualified for a debut European campaign and that was always going to make their second domestic campaign difficult and it did !Despite selling out their tiny stadium each home game, they are the smallest club in the Bundesliga and by some way and even without European football, it is another long season in prospect. XP saw them as a little better but still lowest of the teams that survived. Only a couple of youthful loans from bigger clubs and they do have to operate on a shoestring.

 

 

15th last season was their lowest finish since 2015/16 and their goal difference of -22 was their worst for even longer and they had a 14 point and 22 goal drop off from 2023/24 when they finished 7th. I suppose they have that upside potential, were things to click, but last season's expected numbers were not much better than reality and they have some rebuilding work to do. They sold giant DM Anton Stach to Leeds United for a big fee and spent most of that on four defensive players, also adding out of contract Tim Lemperle from Köln (10 goals and six assists in their promotion campaign).

 

 

St Pauli will have been pleased with their first season back in the top flight and there will be the first top flight Hamburg derby for many years to look forward to. 

Their total of 41 goals conceded was, incredibly, the second fewest, with only champions Bayern giving up fewer. However, 28 goals scored was shockingly few and they would be unlikely to survive again without adding 10+ to that number. XGD saw them scoring 11 more, so that offers hope, but also conceding 12 more and those numbers are far more realistic and the balancing act required would be to come close to those and still pick up the requisite points to survive. XP gave them an additional 8 points. They have lost two talented players from their right flank who contributed 6 goals and 5 assists, out of 28 goals total, neither of who have been replaced as I type, or, as far as I can see!

 

 

Union were promoted to the Bundesliga for the first time in 2019 and in their first four seasons not only survived but thrived, finishing 11-7-5-4 and played Champions League football in 2023/24, it is a true Cinderella story. That CL was always likely to make the domestic campaign tough and they finished 15th that season and 13th in 24/25. Across those two seasons they had a worrying -41 goal difference and did not score enough last season. They changed coach over the Winter Break, with Steffen Baumgart coming in and whilst goals did not pick up, results did and they played at 11th place level after his arrival. He knows the club and region well, having been born , raised and played in the East and he did play a couple of seasons with Union. The last two clubs he has coached were promoted Köln and Hamburger and recently, so that might serve him well this season as those games could well be crucial. XGF gave them an additional 7 goals and they were joint 7th with 24 points in the second half of the season. Union have sold striker Benedict Hollerbach ( 9 goals and 3 assists, which is a lot in a team that scored so few) but have spent that money on three offensive players, so will be looking to at least balance that out.

 

 

Augsburg have finished between 11th-15th in each of the last 10 seasons and you can almost guarantee that is where they will be placed come next May. They might flirt with a run at the lower European spots or relegation, but once the dust settles, another lower midtable spot will be secured. They are another team that didn't score enough, but the last time they scored as few, they upped that by 8 the following season and scored 50 (15 more) in 2023/24 so it is not a huge concern. Along with Union, they were joint 7th with 24 points in the second half of the season. Augsburg have been doing their usually dealing, but it looks like they have just preserved the status quo, which is their MO!

 

 

The Wolves have finished 11-12-8-12 in the last four seasons, but we expect more from them and they were top 7 for three straight seasons prior to that. They were the only bottom half team with a positive goal difference and 56 goals scored was the most outside the top 9 and 6th highest. XP placed them 9th and surely some improvement is on the cards. They have been busy in this window with six in and six out and a net spend of circa £20m and it does indeed look like an upgrade. They have strengthened the defensive spine and wide options and made the loan for Mohamed Amoura (10 goals and 12 assists) last season permanent. They have a new head coach in 40yo Paul Simonis who has never played the game, but has coached for over 20 years! Most at youth level and then as an assistant head coach, moving up to the main role at Go Ahead Eagles ahead of last season. To say he made an impression is a bit of an understatement! Leading Eagles to 7th place in Eredivise and to domestic cup success and European football, that was the first trophy they had won since 1933! An interesting appointment.

 

 

 

 

Good luck!