There are six J-League 1 games starting very early tomorrow morning for those of us based in Europe. I must admit that the games in recent rounds have been frustrating and annoying me and last midweek was typical when I wrote .....
Cerezo Osaka- Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia made the preseason notes ..........
Machida Zelvia: the promoted side were the surprise package in 2024, but 59.1% of their points came in the first half of the season when opponents had less knowledge/data on them and xP suggests they should have collected 7 points fewer and it will be difficult for them to repeat those heroics. No goalscorer reached double digits and only the three relegated teams won fewer points from losing positions.
They are midtable and have 17 points on board which is 8 fewer than at this stage 12 months ago and after a decent start, they have lost their last three games and given up a lot, from not very much, conceding four goals from 2.2 xGA. They might be what Cerezo are looking for as they are creating plenty, but struggling to convert those chances. Ahead of a trip to Tokyo Verdy at the weekend I wrote .............
We need to keep a close watch on Cerezo in the coming weeks as recent offensive numbers have been really good and whilst they are probably still a work in progress, I can just feel the goals are about to flow. In preseason I wrote .........
Cerezo Osaka: were 10th, xP has them a shade higher, two places and three points, but more noteworthy is the fact that xGF gives them an additional 12 goals as this is a team we have long followed in goal markets. However, they sold top scorer Leo Ceara to Antlers (see above) and he scored 21 of their 43 goals last season. They have made some inventive additions, with creative players so I expect them to continue to create chances, but they have not made a natural replacement for Ceara so it will be interesting to see how they set up.
They have scored 16, which is a very good number, but it has been a bit feast and famine in the league and in their last three starts they have scored just once in each. However, they averaged 2.07 xGF, 3 BC's and 34 TIPA's and sandwiched in between they scored 9 goals in two cup road games and slim to no chance that the goals are not going come in the league soon and Slim has just left town! We can discuss Verdy another day, this is all about Cerezo and their potential, hopefully we see that today, but if not, very soon.
Cerezo lost 1-0, but created 1.7 xG, won BC's 4-2 and made 827 passes (only two other teams attempted more than 470), 733 of which they completed , with a respective 242 and 188 in the final third, as many as Verdy made across the whole pitch. They also created 32 TIPA's and were denied by a MOM performance and 7 saves from hosting goalkeeper Mattheus Vidotto. I have to stick with Cerezo today.
Machida won 2-1, so I had to swerve Cerezo at the weekend even though I "know" they have to come good with those numbers, as teams always do. Of course , it goes almost without saying that they won, 3-2 away to top 3 side Kyoto Sanga and Machida lost. So now I cannot bet Cerezo, or can I ? They make the very short trip to Kobe (12 minutes by Shinkansen) to play two time champion Vissel who were struggling in their hunt for a three-peat, but who now have won four in a row and are up to 5th, 7 points off first place with two games in hand. So this is as tough as it gets in J-L1 , but the hosts have won their last three home starts and four is rare and even the champions have not done that in 18 months . Vissel's home win rate since the start of last season is 50% and for the whole league is sub 40%, so we can expect them to slip up soon. Anyway, we get a big price for Cerezo ,we know they are going to create chances and it is hard to get away from them, so something small............
Al-Nassr