CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying:

 

What a format! I know that we have discussed this before, but two full years of qualifying and 18 rounds to reduce 10 teams down to what is very likely to be 7 going to the World Cup seems overkill!

 

Anyway, with four rounds left to play, Argentina are the only qualifier so far and they and Ecuador ( 3 points deducted) are the only teams to have won 50% plus of games. Peru and Chile seem out of things and it looks likely that Venezuela and Bolivia are competing for the playoff spot.

 

 

 

veryone likes to beat Brazil and it is easier now than in the past and Ecuador tick a lot of boxes, they have collected 5 more points and conceded a whopping 0.79 goals per game fewer than the Samba Boys. The hosts have also lost just two of seven h2h games here in Ecuador and just one of six competitive h2h fixtures and they are better than for most of those meetings now and Brazil have regressed. The great unknown factor is that this is Carlo Ancellotti's first game in charge of Brazil, he is the possibly the greatest club head coach of all time, but this is his first time in charge of an international team ,he was an assistant at the 1994 World Cup, but that was another lifetime in football terms! He was appointed last month, but will have only had a few days with the squad and despite being multilingual, he doesn't speak Portuguese, so we cannot be sure how immediate an impact he can have.He is the 4th head coach of Brazil in a little over two years through which they have just a 40% win rate and there will be some sorting out to do, a lot of it! They have a home game with Paraguay on Tuesday and that feels much more win-able and after that, Don Carlo will have three months before the next game. For today, odds feel a little too lopsided.

 

This game is not being played at altitude in Quito, but in Guayaquil, in the stadium of Barcelona SC, the biggest and most beautiful in the country. Ecuador are using this venue increasingly and it is at sea level, which I think helps their style of play under their still "new" head coach. Their record in this stadium is good and they beat Bolivia 4-0 here in November, it will be a first visit for all of the Brazilian players. It is little wonder that the hosts have proved so difficult to score against as they have top and even world class talent in defensive areas. with Pacho (PSG), Hincapie (Leverkusen), Estupian (Brighton) and Caicedo (Chelsea). They also have a very interesting head coach in 44 yo Sebastian Beccacece, he is a disciple of Jorge Sampaoli and the two worked together for many years (13 ?), having huge success with Universidad de Chile and the Chile national team (taking them to the World Cup and winning their first ever Copa America and laying the groundwork for a repeat a year later). He believes that two things win games, ideas and intensity and his teams play with a lot of both. Ecuador are unbeaten in seven since his first game in charge, conceding just a single goal and he has been fluid in formation, using both a back three and four and his teams are aggressive both in and out of possession. With the ball, they often become a 2-3-5 and he insists they play creatively, without it, his players harry the ball carrier, press in great numbers and look to condense space.It feels quite an exciting appointment.

 

Venezuela-Bolivia is huge as these two have been the traditional group minnows, but one seems likely to make the playoff games, where they will be heavily favoured to progress. Bolivia dare not lose and might take a draw, as they host Chile on Tuesday, whereas Venezuela travels to Uruguay. The hosts also still have to go to Argentina, so whilst I think the home side will also have avoiding defeat as their first priority, they will surely be looking to secure the win at some stage and this series has been dominated by whichever nation is hosting. Venezuela has not lost a home WC qualifier to Bolivia since 1993 and have won the last six by a combined 21-6. The visitors have won 7 of 9 in Bolivia by an aggregate 33-7! So, usually a home win and goals , but I doubt there has been as much at stake in many of those previous meetings. Both teams have made the most of home advantage, Bolivia have long been dreadful on the road and thrive in their high altitude home. Venezuela (3-4-0), along with Ecuador (5-2-0) are rather incredibly, the only two undefeated teams on home soil and they have also both conceded the joint fewest goals (2). I also like the goal difference differential, most of you know I view that as an easy and fairly reliable guide to a team's true underlying ability and Venezuela -4 goals , have a clear edge over Bolivia -16. That is the worst goal difference by some way and I think they are the worst team, but playing home games at an altitude of 4,150m helps, but is also insane! At over 4,000m altitude sickness kicks in, with headaches, nausea, dizziness and fatigue. Away from El Alto they have lost 8 of 9 starts, scoring in only four and conceding 3.22 goals per game.

 

Venezuela are the only CONMEBOL team to have never qualified for the World Cup, this is their big opportunity to do so and last chance for many, as 14 of this

squad will be in their 30's come next summer and one or two pushing their 40's by the time the 2030 tournament comes around. I guess Venezuela should be the call , but their odds feel short, too short and I will have to pass.

 

 

Good luck!