Content is key ....

football betting tips -

I am spoiling you today and am also giving you a look at two of this evening's games. Results of which do not overly matter, of course we want to "win", but the aim is really to look for value with all betting, then results will take care of themselves and long term, all leagues and sports that clubgowi cover make a profit.That is in terms of red type "official" selections, but the content is worth more than that and highlights a lot of future winners, like the Dunkerque notes below, when we picked up on them as a big potential improver many months before anyone else. Or back in 2012-13 when I was telling everyone who would listen, that League 1 Brentford were already a club being run along EPL lines and again in 2019-20 that they were the 10th best team in the English football pyramid, despite being third in the Championship and this morning they sit 7th in the Premier League! 

Championship: Leicester City- West Bromwich Albion
 
WBA are looking to avoid a 10th (!) straight away defeat and head coach Ryan Mason is under enormous pressure and I doubt that have been eased by the news that US owner Shilen Patel is flying in for today's game. Patel also has shares in Serie A side Bologna, which have so far been a better investment, if that is indeed how all these US based owners see these "projects". I watched Albion's 1-0 loss at Swansea on NYD, they were the better team and were pressing very hard for the winner, when they lost the ball in their final third, most match officials would have given a foul for the "tackle", losing to a long range effort, where the keeper was poorly positioned and that is how things tend to go when you are near the foot of the table and in a poor run! 
 
Now they have a Midlands derby game with Leicester City who, like the Baggies, would have expected to be much higher placed. Albion have spent 4 of the last 10 seasons in the EPL and the other six pressing for promotion from it. City have spent nine of the last 10 in the EPL, with one, still scarcely believable Premier League title, a FA Cup win and Champions League campaign. Issues with the two clubs, but to see both in the bottom half of the table is a real surprise. The hosts are three points better off , but Albion actually come in at 5th for xP, a 12 point swing over City compared to the real table and the visitors should be 0.4 goals per game better off and given the events at Swansea, it is easy to see why, but similarly that they are clearly better than the table suggests.
 
City are 19 games without a clean sheet, the last eight of those have seen BTS and the last 11 have produced 3+ goals.
 
Ligue 2: Montpellier HSC- US Dunkerque
 
2025/26 Overall Home Away
P W D L F A Gdf Pts Form P W D L F A P W D L F A
  1   Troyes 18 11 5 2 31 16 +15 38 WWXW 10 8 1 1 22 9 8 3 4 1 9 7
  2   Reims 18 9 5 4 34 21 +13 32 WOWW 9 6 1 2 17 8 9 3 4 2 17 13
  3   Saint-Étienne 18 9 4 5 35 25 +10 31 OXLW 8 4 2 2 22 12 10 5 2 3 13 13
  4   Le Mans 18 8 7 3 22 17 +5 31 OWWW 10 5 3 2 8 5 8 3 4 1 14 12
  5   Red Star 17 8 5 4 21 16 +5 29 LOXO 8 3 3 2 9 10 9 5 2 2 12 6
  6   Dunkerque 17 7 6 4 29 19 +10 27 WWXX 9 4 3 2 18 11 8 3 3 2 11 8
  7   Pau 18 7 6 5 26 28 -2 27 XLWL 10 4 2 4 14 15 8 3 4 1 12 13
  8   Guingamp 18 7 5 6 28 30 -2 26 WLLW 10 4 3 3 15 16 8 3 2 3 13 14
  9   Montpellier 17 7 4 6 18 16 +2 25 XLLW 9 4 2 3 12 9 8 3 2 3 6 7
 
Montpellier were relegated last season after 16 years in the top flight and came into this campaign as one of the favourites and with the second highest budget in the division. Money tends to talk at this level and the four other teams with a 20m€+ budget, currently sit 1-2-3-8. However, many teams take a while to adjust to life in Ligue 2 and MHSC were historically bad last season, 26 defeats and a -56 goal difference (-1.65 goals pg) . They didn't score many and conceded a LOT and at first glance they look to have solved the latter, but not the first and 1.06 goals scored is lower mid table level and they have ridden their luck at the other end of the pitch. Actually their games should have produced an additional 0.7 goals per game. Basically, they are probably about where they should be and their games should be far more goal heavy at both ends of the pitch.
 
Dunkerque were "our" team in Ligue 2 last season and they had a joyous run, finishing 4th before unluckily losing in the playoffs and also reaching the Coupe de France semi finals where they led PSG 2-0 before finally losing 4-2 with the 4th goal from the European champions coming late in added time. My notes on that game and some more detailed background info on Dunkerque are reproduced at the foot of this email. It was not a real surprise that they started this season slowly with a new head coach (after Luis Castro was poached by Nantes) and a bit of a hangover after a campaign which promised so much ended in disappointment. They began 1-3-3 with a 10-12 goal difference, but are 6-3-1 with a 19-7 GD subsequently, which is Troyes (top of the table) level and USD look back to their old selves, quite possibly better.
 
A win puts the visitors on a par with the clubs currently 2nd-5th and that is exactly where their goal difference suggests they should be and I often talk of that being an easy and fairly reliable guide to a team's true ability, it is certainly a good starting point. No Coupe de France heroics this season as they lost at Ligue 1 highfliers Strasbourg 2-1, just before Christmas, but it's hard to see that as a real negative. It means that tonight is their only game in a 26 day period, so full focus on this fixture and Ligue 2 from here on in . Also, at Strasbourg they created 6 BC's (!) and won attempts 17-8. ITB 13-8 and TIPA's 32-21. RCS went full strength for that game BTW, with the exact same starting 11 who played at Nice on Saturday.
 
Regardless of what happens this evening a good 2026 surely awaits Dunkerque.
 
2 units double both teams to score in both games @ circa 3.10-3.25 general quote.
 
Good luck!
 
Coupe de France: USL Dunkerque- Paris Saint Germain
 
Regular readers already know that I like this version of PSG way above the "galactico" versions we have seen in previous years and they have already "won" Ligue 1 yet again and should defend this title too, but hanging over everything this club does like the Sword of Damocles, is their Holy Grail , the Champions League. That is for next week, but their momentum is sky high at present and there should be no let up from them, regardless of the level of the opponent. It is just easier to keep winning, than to ease off, come unstuck and then try to go again and press the re-set button. That level of opposition is 3-4 levels below PSG and in poor form having lost their last three starts conceding 10 goals and that against fellow second tier teams. I wrote lengthy notes on St Etienne- PSG at the weekend and ended those notes with .....
 
St Etienne are battling hard for survival and will give everything, but are two levels below the Parisians and once the dust has settled, it should end in defeat for them today. The visitors have won the last four h2h meetings, but both teams scored in each game and BTS in 8 of PSG's last 10 Ligue 1 away wins and we have to stick with all those trends.
 
PSG trailed 1-0 early but won 6-1 , scoring five in 25 minutes and are a relentless offensive force, but they do not need to keep a clean sheet in these kinds of games, knowing they can score 3-4-5 goals almost at will.
 
Things were going very well for Dunkerque prior to those last three games, but I suspect their massive cup run and this game with PSG has come at great L2 cost and it has been a massive distraction. They are a team we know well and ahead of their last win, 2-1 at Ajaccio, I wrote ......
 
Dunkerque have been our Ligue 2 team for 14-15 months and there are some notes on them at the foot of this email to provide background information for today. They were deep in relegation trouble at the time we started covering them and they have more than lived up to the potential we spoke about way back then, by sitting 4th in the table this morning and knowing that three points will take them to within one of the automatic promotions spots and they have further incentive to risk one for three points as they have such a healthy lead already over those clubs in 5th place (playoffs) and below. Even better and perhaps harder to believe, is that they are also in the last 4 (!) of the Coupe de France and have beaten both Lille and Brest, two Champions League teams to get there and both on the road! This feels like another cup tie, although one where all the value is with three and far less so with one point. Ajaccio have played well themselves recently to haul away from the bottom three, but do not have the class the visitors have and I cannot desert Dunkerque now at this late stage. They have continued to build for the future, securing a handful of long term contracts at the club in recent weeks to players and staff they see as vital to try and ward off a lot of interest from bigger clubs. That rarely works long term, but is sufficient for everyone to see this project through to the end of this campaign at least.
 
Dunkerque are not actually hosting tonight, for safety and financial reasons they are playing 75km away in Lille, but they have already knocked out Lille in this stadium this season, so the venue is not only known to them, but has very positive memories for USLD. In those two games with Lille and Brest, Dunkerque not only progressed but scored 4 goals and from 1-0 down in added time in the first and 3 times after trailing 2-0 in the second. That spirit and the magnitude of the game tonight and how many supporters they have in the stadium, should ensure they keep going tonight regardless of scoreline and I doubt PSG will overly begrudge them a goal.
 
2 units Paris St Germain to win and both teams to score @ 2.73 asian line.
 
Written in January 
 
Dunkerque have been "our" Ligue 2 team for the last 12 months or so and it was early in 2024 when I wrote ........
 
VAFC must have been disappointed by that and today they have perhaps a final chance to stay in touch with the other bottom four teams in a "six pointer" with Dunkerque who have already lost 8 home games this season. However, the hosts have really picked up since the Christmas break ...........
 
Feb 10, 2024 24  Rodez AF Rodez AF 0:0 USL Dunkerque USL Dunkerque 4-4-2
Feb 3, 2024 23  USL Dunkerque USL Dunkerque 1:0 AS Saint-Étienne Saint-Étienne 4-4-2 double 6
Jan 27, 2024 22  Paris FC Paris FC 1:2 USL Dunkerque USL Dunkerque 4-4-1-1
Jan 23, 2024 21  USL Dunkerque USL Dunkerque 2:0 AC Ajaccio AC Ajaccio 4-4-1-1
Jan 13, 2024 20  Grenoble Grenoble Foot 38 2:2 USL Dunkerque USL Dunkerque 4-4-1-1
 
All those opponents are top 12 and have otherwise been in decent form, St Etienne won 5-0 in their only subsequent start, Paris FC were unbeaten in eight games either side of that defeat, Ajaccio have won twice subsequently and Grenoble are 3rd. The Christmas break was the first one that head coach Luis Castro , who arrived in September after 4 years with the Benfica youth and B teams, had and also the first transfer window. His was quite an ambitious appointment , but I suspect the club have plans to kick on following promotion last season and their budget was fairly decent for this campaign, bigger that 6-7 teams. They have a very wealthy Turkish owner ( also owns Samsunspor) and former player Demba Ba is sporting director and they were busy in January with 7 signings and five of those played in their last league game. They were a mixture of loans from bigger clubs and one or two very experienced additions like Gaetan Courtet from Guingamp, he has over 100 goals at Ligue 2 level and above. There is a very interesting article with Ba on the inews site and it is worth a read when you get time.
 
I am interested in the project now that it seems like it is up and running and whilst Dunkerque have won just two home games, they were the last two and surely a good chance for the hat-trick.
 
They were 19th with just 13 points at the halfway stage last season, but finished in 16th with 46 points and played at third place level from that point on and that is exactly where they are now, sitting just two points off the lead. It is a miraculous turnaround from a tiny club and shows what can be done with a little money, some fresh ideas and a little innovation/know-how at this level. I am proud that we picked up on them so soon and others are now writing about them and I spotted this article and interview with Ba a few weeks ago.....
 
Taken from the Footboom website.....posted December 7th 2024......about 10 months after clubgowi picked up on the project at Dunkerque and Demba Ba!

Dunkerque was a vital location for the course of World War II, recreated in a magnificent film by Christopher Nolan. In this port city, whose beaches decided the most significant conflict of the 20th century, competes USL Dunkerque, a humble team that has never played in the top division of French football, yet is astonishing Europe with a limited budget, co-leading Ligue 2 alongside Paris F.C.

In 2023, the Amissos group, owner of the Turkish Samsunspor, decided to invest in a club without a rich history in French football, a city better known for its historical significance. The keys to the project were entrusted to Demba Ba, an iconic Premier League striker who was a star in England for many years due to his outstanding performances at Newcastle and Chelsea.

The Senegalese forward, who had been guided by Ralf Rangnick as a sports director, laid the foundations of an ambitious project in just a year and a half, characterized by signing young players on free transfers and playing attacking football. To achieve this, he brought in Luis Castro, the coach who had won the Youth League with Benfica, bringing names like Joao Neves, Gonçalo Ramos, and Antonio Silva to the forefront.

In just a year and a half, Demba Ba made 35 signings and 23 sales, transforming Dunkerque, which barely escaped relegation last season, into the great revelation of the French second division. He spent only €277,000 in the summer market, a clear testament to how effectively he optimizes the club's limited resources. The former Chelsea player spoke to Diario AS amid a season that could culminate in a historic promotion for the club.

How did the opportunity to join Dunkerque come about? Was it a surprise?

It was absolutely not a surprise. The club's purchase was made through me; I had a vision to develop a project and get it rolling. To develop this idea, it was necessary for an investor to invest in the club. I spoke with Yildrim (the current owner), who had propelled a club in Turkey. We tried to acquire Valenciennes, but the owner retracted. We turned to Dunkerque, and I took over as sports director.

Your mentor was Ralf Rangnick, who has influenced German football. Did you apply the Red Bull philosophy at Dunkerque by signing players with great potential?

Before developing a philosophy on the field, one must define the club's philosophy and develop that. I referenced universal ideas that have been important in all football teams. And of course, I took them into account because we needed to start from scratch with Dunkerque. Personally, I have my own football philosophy. I’ve applied concepts I learned from Rangnick, but also from everyone I've crossed paths with throughout my football career, through many travels I made.

How did you conclude that Ligue 2, where coaches are very pragmatic, needed a coach like Luis Castro, who won the Youth League with Benfica?

There are many factors. The most important is the philosophy of play. Luis embodies the philosophy I want to apply to the club. I am very happy and proud to have him. We told each other that we were in Ligue 2, but we were going to play football. There’s a lot of pragmatism. I started watching many matches and saw that the teams ranked higher in various leagues were the ones taking risks, wanted to play out from the back, and had possession. We also wanted to create value in the club with his profile, allowing players to increase in value. That’s why we pursued his profile after analyzing him for a long time and having conversations with him. He sees football the same way I do and practices a style that I love.

What is the secret to Dunkerque going from fighting against relegation to co-leading Ligue 2 in just a year?

In my opinion, the key lies in planning. We arrived in Dunkerque, at least in my case, with very clear ideas to develop. The secret of it all is the planning we’ve applied, along with the way we make decisions. The signings are also important, as is the work on team cohesion... When you combine all these ingredients, it brings you closer to results.

What differences do you see between English and French football? Is the gap as wide as people think?

The distance between both leagues, in my opinion, is justified. It’s true that there are similarities, for example, in physicality. Also individual talent and intensity. However, in terms of gameplay intensity, England is far superior, along with technical quality. In England, the pressure from teams is much more intense, which requires you to be much more precise in passing, ball control, and many other aspects.

Dunkerque is one of the few teams in Ligue 2 whose playing style is characterized by possession and space occupation. When you joined the club, was that the model to follow? To play good football and develop an ambitious project?

Yes, for me it was important to play good football and practice it. The idea was to have an attractive style of play. And yes, the project is quite ambitious. We also wanted our playing style to reflect the values of the city. It was essential to develop an ambitious project, centering around youth, where everyone can enjoy.

What’s the secret to signing a young, inexperienced player who fits so well into Dunkerque's style? Do you use Big Data for signings?

Unfortunately, we need economic resources that are essential to utilize Big Data. Everything begins with scouting and the feel the analyst has, which then translates to the coach before incorporating a player. For me, it’s important when making a signing to maximize our attention towards them, to care for them, with the goal of having them focus solely on football, not outside distractions, and to provide them with a project that helps develop their talent. Again, we speak of planning: a precise plan for all the players we will sign.

You were a Premier League star and now work for a modest club. Is the change noticeable? Do you enjoy football the same way today?

Yes, the change is extremely noticeable because the differences between the Premier League, for example, at Newcastle or Chelsea (the teams I played for), and Dunkerque, which is regarded as a humble team in Ligue 2, are vast in terms of image, club structure, or financial terms. I enjoy it just the same. I love good football; I like developing an idea in a project. Of course, the quality of players varies greatly, but I enjoy what I do and developing this project.

Finally, a little more current affairs. You eliminated PSG with Chelsea thanks to a last-minute goal. Now the project has changed; there are no more stars. How do you view Luis Enrique's project? Do you think he can turn the situation around?

I hope they can turn the situation around, but honestly, I can’t comment much because I’m not inside the club to know what working methods are being used. From my perspective, there are various things that could change. Because when we observe what they’re doing in the Champions League, we see they approach games differently compared to teams they've faced, like Atlético de Madrid and Arsenal. I perceive they have a deficit regarding intensity. They could alter the style of the players, but it’s the project that Luis Enrique has chosen, and it’s good that he wants to develop that idea. Mixing different player profiles could be interesting. And regarding the stars, whether there are more or fewer stars doesn’t matter, because PSG, last year, had more stars than Borussia Dortmund and were eliminated in the Champions semi-finals.

Not sure why he was asked about PSG, a club he played against more than a decade ago and never for, but he answered with good grace. Dunkerque are on the rise and if the owner was debating about signing any more players that Ba or Castro feel they might need in this window, I suspect any doubts were dashed when they won away to 9th placed L1 side Auxerre in the Coupe de France just before Christmas, which gave the team, club and city a boost and probably made the festive goose and champagne taste all the sweeter! The feel good factor can continue with a repeat of their win in this fixture last season.

 

We don't just sell football betting tips, as you can see there is an extensive analysis behind our asian handicap selections. Subscribing to our sports betting advice service need not break the bank. Learn more by visiting our subscriptions page.

Country: 
Sport: 

Don't be selfish, share the betting tips