EFL Championship ....

Aug 02, 2025
football betting tips -
Championship 2025/26 (written July 30th)
 
Last season's league table..........
 
2024/25 Overall Home Away
P W D L F A Gdf Pts Form P W D L F A P W D L F A
  1   Leeds United 46 29 13 4 95 30 +65 100 WWWW 23 18 4 1 61 12 23 11 9 3 34 18
  2   Burnley 46 28 16 2 69 16 +53 100 WWWW 23 14 9 0 35 8 23 14 7 2 34 8
  3   Sheffield United1 46 28 8 10 63 36 +27 90 XWLW 23 15 4 4 33 17 23 13 4 6 30 19
  4   Sunderland 46 21 13 12 58 44 +14 76 LLLL 23 12 7 4 32 18 23 9 6 8 26 26
  5   Coventry City 46 20 9 17 64 58 +6 69 WLLW 23 14 3 6 40 24 23 6 6 11 24 34
  6   Bristol City 46 17 17 12 59 55 +4 68 XLLW 23 13 7 3 36 20 23 4 10 9 23 35
  7   Blackburn Rovers 46 19 9 18 53 48 +5 66 XWWW 23 12 4 7 34 23 23 7 5 11 19 25
  8   Millwall 46 18 12 16 47 49 -2 66 LWWL 23 12 4 7 27 19 23 6 8 9 20 30
  9   WBA 46 15 19 12 57 47 +10 64 WOLL 23 11 8 4 33 20 23 4 11 8 24 27
  10   Middlesbrough 46 18 10 18 64 56 +8 64 LOLW 23 11 6 6 31 23 23 7 4 12 33 33
  11   Swansea City 46 17 10 19 51 56 -5 61 XLWW 23 10 6 7 33 24 23 7 4 12 18 32
  12   Sheffield Wednesday 46 15 13 18 60 69 -9 58 XXWL 23 6 8 9 30 32 23 9 5 9 30 37
  13   Norwich City 46 14 15 17 71 68 +3 57 WOLL 23 10 8 5 52 34 23 4 7 12 19 34
  14   Watford 46 16 9 21 53 61 -8 57 XLLL 23 12 4 7 27 22 23 4 5 14 26 39
  15   QPR 46 14 14 18 53 63 -10 56 WLLW 23 7 8 8 31 34 23 7 6 10 22 29
  16   Portsmouth 46 14 12 20 58 71 -13 54 XXWW 23 11 7 5 33 21 23 3 5 15 25 50
  17   Oxford United 46 13 14 19 49 65 -16 53 XWXL 23 11 5 7 31 29 23 2 9 12 18 36
  18   Stoke City 46 12 15 19 45 62 -17 51 OLLW 23 8 9 6 29 25 23 4 6 13 16 37
  19   Derby County 46 13 11 22 48 56 -8 50 OWWL 23 9 5 9 25 18 23 4 6 13 23 38
  20   Preston North End 46 10 20 16 48 59 -11 50 XLLL 23 7 12 4 26 22 23 3 8 12 22 37
  21   Hull City 46 12 13 21 44 54 -10 49 XLWL 23 5 8 10 24 28 23 7 5 11 20 26
  22   Luton Town 46 13 10 23 45 69 -24 49 LWWW 23 9 7 7 25 22 23 4 3 16 20 47
  23   Plymouth Argyle 46 11 13 22 51 88 -37 46 LWWL 23 9 7 7 40 39 23 2 6 15 11 49
  24   Cardiff City 46 9 17 20 48 73 -25 44 LOXL 23 7 6 10 24 27 23 2 11 10 24 46
1 Sheffield United (-2)
 
The first thing to say is look at those point totals for the top 3! Leeds United and Burnley hit 100 points and Sheffield United earned 92 ( deducted 2). That would have been enough for the Blades to claim an automatic promotion spot (and one title) in six of the seven previous seasons. Instead,it was only enough for third place and a heartbreaking defeat in the playoff final to Sunderland who finished 14-16 points (depending on how you want to count) adrift of United. 
 
That is an awful lot of ground for the pack to make up, but, of course the top 2 have gone on to bigger and better things, at least for one season and the Blades have an awful lot of heartache to overcome. 
 
Stand out statistic is that 10 of the last 12 teams automatically promoted from the Championship were receiving EPL parachute payments. No wonder as clubs are not spending at the same level in the second tier as they were 5-6 years back to reach the promised land of the Premier League and the riches that await and, receiving a £40-50m nest egg gives those recently relegated sides a huge advantage. Although it did not help Luton Town much last season, as they were relegated for a second season running! 
 
Four will receive parachute payments this season, the three relegated teams in Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton and the aforementioned Sheffield United, who are in their second season at this level. All four do know how to get out of this division, but my thinking is that this might be the season that someone else steps up and I do have issues with all four to some degree. First up, all three relegated teams where historically bad last season, they totalled 59 points between them, to give that some context, the bottom three in the previous five season had averaged 80.4 points. It is also noteworthy to say that in 22/23 it was 90 points and that included Leicester City and Southampton who were immediately promoted as top two, but do not look of that level this time. Saints only collected 12 points (second fewest in EPL history), City have waved goodbye to talisman Jamie Vardy and it is impossible to overestimate his role in all they have achieved over the last dozen or so years and the club are set to receive a 9-10 point deduction. Neither has spent much money as I type. Town need to regroup, as relegation followed back to back promotions, they were in League 1 in 2023 and sometimes you can grow too quickly and they look set to lose their two star players, one having already departed. United sacked head coach Chris Wilder and replacement Ruben Selles is well thought of, but his record doesn't exactly scream that "he's the man!" ..... League 1 ....63 games ...1.41 points pg, Championship....27 games....1.26 points and EPL.... 16 games....0.63 ppg. His win rate is 33.96% and outside the third tier that drops to 25.58%. They have lost a key DM, not really signed anyone and blew two big promotion chances last season. 
 
Having said all that, history does dictate that one or even two of the quartet are likely to be promoted, but, on this occasion, I prefer to look elsewhere. 
 
I then went on to suggest two alternative selections to win/ gain promotion from the Championship and then finished my notes with .....
 
Dark Horse ?
 
I am going to suggest Portsmouth who served us incredibly well in 2023/24, when they were our League 1 outright selection.....
 
Across the last four seasons, the top 3 places (12 teams total) have been filled by seven who finished between 6th-13th the previous season, which is why I cut short the table at half way.  The three biggest amongst those are Derby, Portsmouth and Charlton and each will be expected to kick on from last season's finishing position, but it is Pompey I am interested in.
 
Portsmouth overspent and fell on very hard times, when, after two FA Cup final appearances (2008 and 2010), seven straight seasons in the EPL and a place in Europe, they suffered three relegations in four seasons, along with three separate points deductions and found themselves in League 2 in 2013/14. It took four seasons on the breadline and almost starting from scratch to get back into L1 which they did in 2017, much of the hard work in rebuilding was done by the Pompey Supporters Trust, but they agreed to sell to the Tornante Company owned by former Walt Disney CEO Michael Eisner ahead of the start of 17/18 and they have been knocking on the door ever since. Eisner is not the sugar daddy type or likely to simply throw money at any project, but he has got the club stable and under him they have finished 8-4-4-8-10-8, they should have been promoted in at least two of those seasons, lost in the playoff semi finals twice and blew very good positions on other occasions but I feel this could finally be their time.
 
Young head coaches have had great success in this division in recent years and none of those would know League 1 as well as 37 yo Pompey boss John Mousinho, who played over 300 games at this level (550 total) including some 70 for Brentford, his first professional club. He only played some 30 odd games in the Championship, but made a good and very long career making the most of his ability and he was always going to stay in the game and become a coach after he retired. John was a leader on the pitch and very well thought of at every team he ever played for. He had a player/coach role at Oxford United, his final club, before taking the job at Portsmouth in January. Mousinho is well educated, attended college in the US, took a UK University degree whilst still playing and his UEFA Pro License whilst also being chairman of the Professional Footballers Association, stepping down from the role to join Pompey. At the time of his appointment, Portsmouth chief executive Andrew Cullen highlighted Mousinho's leadership and motivational skills as key and his contract has only ever been announced as "long term" which is odd. However, I am led to believe it is very long and was only not announced to avoid putting additional pressure on the first time head coach or club.
 
A whole host of well known and successful coaches were interviewed for the job, but Mousinho was named the stand out candidate and the one always wanted by Director of Football Richard Hughes who is even younger, despite holding that role for over 4 years at Forest Green Rovers until September last year. He was chased for a year by Pompey, the two will work closely together and this is their first proper transfer window together and they have been busy. Clearing out a lot of players seen as surplus to requirements and bringing in a mixture of young talent from clubs further up the football pyramid and others with a lot of experience. RW Gavin Whyte has almost 50 games in the Championship under his belt and is a full Northern Ireland international. CB Regan Poole and LW Anthony Scully have both played in L1 playoff finals in the last two years , the former is closing in on 200 games at this level and the latter has a West Ham grounding ( many years as a youth) is still only 24yo and already has a 38 goal contribution from out wide in L1. They have also been scouting wide and far and CF Kusini Yengi has arrived from Australia and scored a hat-trick at the weekend in a 9-1 win over L2 side Crawley Town. Afterwards, Mousinho spoke about the "fierce competition" he has for starting places amongst his forwards.
 
It was exactly half way (23 games) through last season that Mousinho took charge, they conceded just 20 goals from that point on , which if we extend that to the full season, puts them in that elite defensive ballpark that I touched upon earlier and collected 39 of their 70 points, losing just four times and ending the campaign on an 11 match unbeaten run. Immediately before his arrival, Pompey had taken just 11 points from a possible 45 games, either side of which they averaged 1.903 ppg which is usually good for 2nd-4th place and the club were very tough to beat all season (10 defeats with the third fewest), obviously too many draws, especially at home, but fine margins decided those and key areas where they can clearly improve. Avoid the extended poor run and be a little more ruthless in front of goal and if they can achieve one, hopefully both, in a less competitive division, they have to go well.
 
Chelsea academy manager Jon Harley has joined as #2 to Mousinho, after a decade with the Blues and it looks as though there will be some more EPL loanees coming in via his contacts.
 
The club has already sold over 14,300 season tickets (less than 200 remain) which means that the home ends will be sold out most weeks at famous old Fratton Park (capacity 20K).
 
 
 
1.5 units Portsmouth to win League 1 @ 10.0-11.0 general quote.
 
3 units Portsmouth to gain promotion 4.0 general quote.
 
Portsmouth coasted home actually, from Derby County who also got a mention above .....
 
2023/24 Overall Home Away
P W D L F A Gdf Pts Form P W D L F A P W D L F A
  1   Portsmouth 46 28 13 5 78 41 +37 97 WLWX 23 15 5 3 43 27 23 13 8 2 35 14
  2   Derby County 46 28 8 10 78 37 +41 92 WWWO 23 15 4 4 41 18 23 13 4 6 37 19
  3   Bolton Wanderers 46 25 12 9 86 51 +35 87 XWXX 23 15 5 3 52 27 23 10 7 6 34 24
 
Last season, their first back in the Championship 12 years, they fell out of the blocks and did not win a game until Week 10 , or a second until their 15th start, prior to which they were bottom of the table, six points from safety and the knives were being sharpened in the media and amongst some supporters for John Mousinho. However, a funny thing happened, they stuck with him (in fact the Pompey board extended the contracts of both the head coach and Richard Hughes when they were winless through 7 games) and things turned around, they played at 9th place level from that point on and were pretty much safe with three rounds left to play, finishing 16th. The board were rewarded for that loyalty and good to see people in football having the courage of their convictions. Mousinho and Hughes were always confident results would turn and said, even at the darkest hour, to judge the team in May, not October or December. XP gave them an additional five points which is promising and those would have been enough to finish 12th. Therefore, as a starting point, that is top half,  the level they played better than for 32 games ( circa 70% of the season). They have already upgraded the squad this off season with four good signings and look much stronger in midfield (John Swift is quality at this level and a change of club should serve him well) and I am reliably informed that two others, one EPL loan and another, both of whom performed well in the Championship last season are set to be added this week. Goals have been raining in in the build up to the new season and my friend who is a Reading supporter, went to their preseason game with Portsmouth (0-4) at the weekend and also the Royals game with Tottenham (0-2) a week earlier and said that Pompey were much the more impressive (!) and should have scored seven goals! We can take that with a pinch of salt, but it is hardly a negative. 
 
Pompey are quoted at 66-1 to 80-1 to win the Championship so definitely make the dark horse criteria and odds of 3.25 (3.50 in a place or two) to finish top half of the table, just feel wrong.There is also 9.0 for top 6 and three teams placed 11th /16th/19th in 2023/24 made the playoffs last season and two featured in my notes ( Sunderland and Bristol City).
 
Good luck!
 
 
 

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Country: 
England
Sport: 
Football
Competition: 
English Championship
Football Teams: 
Ipswich Town
Leicester City
Portsmouth
Sheffield United

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