It's playoff time !

Jan 06, 2026
football betting tips -
NFL Playoffs:
 

Wild-card round: January 10, 11 and 12


NFC bracket

(7) Green Bay Packers at (2) Chicago Bears
Saturday, Jan. 10 at 8 p.m. ET (Prime Video)

(6) San Francisco 49ers at (3) Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, Jan. 11 at 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox)

(5) Los Angeles Rams at (4) Carolina Panthers
Saturday, Jan. 10 at 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox)

Bye: (1) Seattle Seahawks

 

AFC bracket

(7) Los Angeles Chargers at (2) New England Patriots
Sunday, Jan. 11 at 8 p.m. ET (NBC)

(6) Buffalo Bills at (3) Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, Jan. 11 at 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

(5) Houston Texans at (4) Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday, Jan. 12 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)

Bye: (1) Denver Broncos

Home field is determined by the seeding number, not position on the bracket. The NFL does not use a fixed bracket system; the outcome of the Wild Card games determine the matchups of the Divisional games. The lowest remaining seed in each conference travels to the first seed, and the second-lowest remaining seed travels to the second-highest remaining seed.

What to expect in the Wild Card round

In terms of how these opening playoff games traditionally play out, I started by looking at the last 20 seasons, which gives us a big sample of 90 games, they have featured 13 between teams with an identical W/L record, the other 77 have been split 42-35 in favour of the team with the better regular season record. Surprisingly, when that advantage is two games or more, it is similar, with a 23-19 split . 
 
In terms of home advantage, which has long been considered very significant in the postseason, it is 52-38 in favour of the home team (5-1 in each of the last two years).
 
I looked in more detail at the last nine seasons which is 50 games (six per year since 20/21), home teams are 29-21 .
 
This is where it gets more interesting.....Of those last 50 , only 15 were decided by 1-6 points, 27 by 10+ , 21 by 14+ and ten by at least 20 points. 
 
Yet only 14 have produced 50+ points total .
 
Only two games have gone to overtime since 2011 (62 games). 
 
When two double digit game winning teams face off , it is 14-5 in favour of the home team in the last five seasons ( since the return to six wild card games) and 16 of those have been decided by 6+ points, so, again, not as close as we might expect. 
 
I am looking for games which tally with these numbers, so basically a home team where I feel they are the stronger team overall and then I am not going to fret the handicap line too much, in fact, we can be brave with it!
 
Good luck!
 
 

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