2021/22				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1	1	Wigan Athletic	10	7	1	2	17	7	+10	22	WLWW	6	4	1	1	8	4	4	3	0	1	9	3
	2	1	Sunderland	10	7	1	2	18	11	+7	22	LWWX	6	6	0	0	14	3	4	1	1	2	4	8
	3	1	Plymouth Argyle	11	5	5	1	17	10	+7	20	XXWX	6	3	3	0	9	4	5	2	2	1	8	6
	4	1	Rotherham United	11	6	2	3	16	9	+7	20	WWXW	6	3	1	2	10	7	5	3	1	1	6	2
	5	1	Wycombe Wanderers	10	6	2	2	16	12	+4	20	WWLW	4	4	0	0	9	5	6	2	2	2	7	7
	6	3	Milton Keynes Dons	11	5	4	2	21	15	+6	19	LXWW	6	4	1	1	10	6	5	1	3	1	11	9
	7		Bolton Wanderers	11	5	3	3	20	15	+5	18	WWLL	5	2	2	1	7	7	6	3	1	2	13	8
	8		Oxford United	11	5	3	3	17	12	+5	18	WWXL	6	4	2	0	12	4	5	1	1	3	5	8
	9	1	Burton Albion	11	4	4	3	10	12	-2	16	XWLL	6	3	2	1	8	6	5	1	2	2	2	6
	10	2	Accrington Stanley	11	5	1	5	14	20	-6	16	WLXL	5	4	0	1	7	6	6	1	1	4	7	14
	11	2	Portsmouth	11	4	3	4	14	10	+4	15	WLXX	5	3	1	1	10	4	6	1	2	3	4	6
	12	3	Sheffield Wednesday	10	4	3	3	10	9	+1	15	LWXX	4	2	1	1	5	3	6	2	2	2	5	6

 

 

 

 

Following on from yesterday's Championship notes, I see big value in Rotherham United booking a swift return to the second tier. Like Peterborough United (see above) they have been a bit of a yo-yo team in recent seasons and their last nine campaigns have been spent in L1-C-C-C-L1-C-L1-C-L1 and they have actually suffered four promotions (one from L2) and three relegations in the last 10 seasons. It is never boring being a Millers supporter !

 

The benefit of all this is that relegation is not the blow it can often be to other clubs and United almost "expect" to come back up again and they will be looking for a hat-trick of promotions to the Championship in consecutive L1 campaigns. The first of those was in the 2018 playoffs when we sided with them and my notes from then are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off.

 

Paul Warne (pictured) is still head coach and knows what it takes to get his team up, they started slowly that season and again in 19-20 when they finished second, despite winning just 3 of their opening 9 games. This time round they have three points on board through two games and it should be more, as they deserved at least a point from a 1-0 loss at big spending Wigan on Saturday, allowing the hosts nothing offensively until the 96th minute !

 

At least that means we get a price this morning and it allowed me two games to get a look at them and do some research. Warne likes his team super fit (see below) and that has come at a cost in early season, but eventually got them over the line and apparently they have stepped the training up big time this pre season. At their Hungarian training camp they had double training sessions each day, preceded by a daily 7km hill run in early morning and striker Michael Smith said that the squad were in their best shape ever. Smith has been part of both promoted teams under Warne and the core of the 19-20 team either remain, or have been upgraded.

 

I saw quite a lot of them last season, they were very physical in early season, attributes which will serve them well in League 1, but were then badly affected by COVID and left with a daunting schedule with FOUR games to pick up on the rest of the Championship over the final MONTH of the season. They battled valiantly but came up two points short and were a "good" relegated team. One of those late season catch up games was away to Brentford after which I wrote ...........

 

Brentford won 1-0, it might have been a more emphatic win, probably should have been, top scorer Ivan Toney , who needs one goal more goal to equal the all time Championship record of 30 goals, missed another 1 on 1 , hit the woodwork and is finding that next goal very hard to come by. United played well, they battled hard for the full 90 minutes, didn't seem to tire which surprised and played an interesting style, a long ball , but with some quite inventive ball once it "stuck" up top. They have been unfortunate, unlucky on the pitch (xP puts them 16th with an additional 15 points) and off it, suffering much worse with COVID issues than any other second tier team. All is not lost yet, they are four points from safety with three to play and a game in hand, if they can win two it will put huge pressure on Derby to win one and they have a tough fixture today. United have not played since Tuesday and given their recent schedule, that probably feels like an extended break.

 

They did actually finish 16th for xP and were 11th for xGF and this is a team who are all about the physical and fitness side of the game, so were dealt a terrible blow by the coronavirus. The Millers have a lot of young players who were involved in the last promotion squad and who will thrive after a season in the second tier and I like the duo up front of the aforementioned Smith, who is a giant of a man and Freddie Ladapo who is very talented at this level and whom I spoke of in glowing terms at Plymouth Argyle when he was watched by a lot of bigger clubs and he has 32 goals in his last two campaigns at this level (one shortened due to COVID) .

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

United are up to 4th and within two points of leader Wigan Athletic, they are unbeaten in five and building up a head of steam, the only goal they have conceded in the last four games came after they were reduced to 10 men. In the 2-0 win away to Cheltenham on Saturday they "won" attempts on target 10-1 with an xG of 2.0-0.8 in their favour. New striker Will Grigg has scored in each of the last two wins and if the Millers can get the "old" Grigg to turn up on a regular basis he could be a really significant contributor, he has 111 and 28 assists in 333 League 1 appearances and has had four seasons with 19+ goals at this level, playing in three promoted teams. He was second top L1 scorer in 2012/13 for 9th placed Walsall, 20 for second placed MK Dons in 2014-15 and notched a respective 25 and 19 in the Wigan Athletic team which finished first in both 15/16 and 17/18 .  Alongside Grigg, Smith ( see above) already has 7 goals and with Ladapo ( also see above) and the very speedy Chiedozie Ogbene, they have varied and multiple offensive options and look solid defensively.The squad looks strong and quite deep and United have more points on board through 11 games than in each of their 2018 and 2020 promotion campaigns and the club and players are well aware what they need to do to get across the finishing line, whether that be top two, or via the playoffs. XP ranks them not just #1, but with a seven point lead over the "second placed" team and they are finally starting to get the results that sky high level of performance deserves. They are now quoted at circa 6.0-6.50 to win League 1 and around 2.50 to earn promotion and we can expect them to go close.

 

Good luck !