Ligue 2 betting tip: Auxerre -Lorient
Dec 03, 2018
Ligue 2: Auxerre -Lorient
I previewed Auxerre's trip to Le Havre on Friday and those notes are reproduced at the foot of this email. HAC led inside two minutes, but Auxerre put the hosts under huge pressure and equalised just before the break and at the half, it seemed certain that we would see at least one more goal, most likely for Auxerre, but it was not to be , although the visitors did have one big chance late on.
Around the same time Lorient drew 2-2 with fellow promotion hopefuls Lens , who came into the game in poor form (one point from a possible 12) and it was easy to see why, as they gifted the home side two early goals with some suicidal defending. Lorient let the vistitors back into things with an error of their own and then gave away a penalty and neither looked top 4-5 in terms of defending.
Two things got my attention for today, first up, Auxerre have absolutely bossed this series, losing just 1/18 starts against Lorient, they have scored 22 goals in nine home h2h games (five wins) and did the double last season despite Lorient collecting 15 points more over the course of the season. Secondly, I saw that Lorient trained very late yesterday (16.00) , the Saturday session was early (10.30) and I guess just a run through after the game the day before, with the Sunday practice probably more normal. It was less what they might do in that, than the timing and that they would not be able to travel to Auxerre afterwards by road or rail, they could fly and maybe that is what they are doing today, I have not been able to check, but either way, it is a very unusual preparation, for a quick turnaround in league games and, there are not many midweek rounds in L2, to a venue they usually struggle, to face a team we feel is on the up.
1.5 units Auxerre -0.25 ball 2.14 asian line/Sportmarket.
Auxerre : Laiton, Westberg – Arcus, Bellugou, Boto, Souprayen, Tacalfred – Adéoti, Féret, Fomba, Goujon, Touré, Youssouf – Dugimont, Ketkeophomphone , Mancini, Philippoteaux, Yattara.
Lorient : Petkovic, Meslier – Le Goff, Saad, Rose, Mendes, Sainati, Kamissoko – Lemoine, Etuin, Claude-Maurice, Lokilo, Wadja, Cabot, Ponceau – Hamel, Courtet, Wissa.
Good Luck.
Written November 30th
Chateauroux- Sochaux
Le Havre- Auxerre
I previewed two of these teams last Friday when Sochaux entertained Auxerre ............
Sochaux have an awful record in this series, they are without a win in eight home h2h games ( 0-3-5) and failed to score in 4 of the last 5 and, not in the last four home and away versus Auxerre. The two clubs have both fallen on hard times after being Ligue 1 regulars and they are tied together on 14 points, too near the foot of the table. It is the visitors who have impressed more, they have been unlucky in several defeats , have the far larger budget and invested heavily in pre season and there is a good chance we will see the best of them in the coming weeks/months once they have fully gelled, there has been signs of that happening. Sochaux have a famed youth policy which served them well for many, many years and have a fine tradition of blooding and developing youngsters, theer have been no potential superstars for quite some time , but recently I did write ............
This (Sochaux) is a very youthful squad, the youngest by FAR in Ligue 2, so they will be up and down , but once they get some confidence, there is no telling how far they could go, youth knows no boundaries ! The 11 outfield players were aged between 20-24 (no one older) , nine were 20-22, two of the subs used were 19 and 16 yo !
It is true that youth knows no fear and can go on a roll, but also that confidence is very fragile with young players who have not been through all the ups and downs before and you usually need more of a mix, with one or two old hands in the squad, which Sochaux do not have/cannot afford. I think it is too much youth at one time and whilst they will record the odd shock result when things click, they look very vulnerable and set for a season of struggle, whereas Auxerre should pull away from the drop zone sooner or later. They were bottom 4 in December last year, then went 6-3-1 and almost set up a top 5 push and I would not rule out something similar, especially if they can get a win or two before Christmas. They won 4-0 here last season (March) which should ensure that there are only positive memories as they step off the team bus and they look the likeliest winner.
Auxerre won 4-1, hit the woodwork and missed other good chances, Sochaux were poor as you might expect looking at the scoreline, they lost almost every 50-50 and second ball and there were a lot of dropped heads late in the game. All 11 players were aged 20-24, it was hard to see a leader on the pitch, they have won one in nine, have failed to score in five of those. Sochaux have not finished inside the top 10 of Ligue 2 since relegation in 2014, or in any league for the last seven seasons , they look to have gone backwards this season and to be in real trouble. Omar Daf was appointed the new head coach on Monday, he has been in charge on an interim basis twice before ( 4 points from 5 games) and was promoted from the B team.
I backed Chateauroux in their most recent home game a visit from league leading Metz..............
Chateauroux are buyed by a fine away win at highflying Lens on Saturday, with the only goal of the game, the first that RCL have conceded on home soil. A few weeks back I spoke about their dealings in the summer, solid home form and how they went on a great run last autumn..............
Chateauroux are 11-6-5 at home since the start of last season and that 50% win rate is 3-4% above the league average and that alone suggests they are decent value at 2.30 to win today against what has to be considered a below average opponent. Chateauroux are in a bit of transition from a good first season back in L2, but head coach Jean-Luc Vasseur knows what is required and new signing Arthur Yamga from Chievo, veteran striker Christophe Madanne who has 52 L2 goals and Cheick Diarra who could be a 8-12 goals man if he stays injury free, give them good options up top. They do have to replace Sidy Sarr and it looks like Abdoulaye Sissako will be asked to do that. It took a few games for it all to come together last season, but the went 11-6-3 from October to mid March which equates to 74 points over the full season and would have been good for second, they played at that level for over half the campaign and are worth keeping an eye on.
They won 2-0 that day, but then lost their way with two heavy defeats, but a pair of draws stopped the rot and then the win at Lens and they must see this as the ideal time to face the visitors.
Hard to know what to really make of that as Chateauroux led, before a very early red card and penalty awarded against them turned the match around and the home side played 82 minutes a man short.Chat returned to winning ways last week winning 1-0 at Niort where they created a host of big scoring opportunities, now head coach Nicolas Usaï who has been in charge for one month wants desperately to win a home game, after a draw and that loss to Metz, he spoke about it a couple of times this week and says he wants to hear the home dressing room vibrate with noise at 22.00 !
Sochaux are without LW Anderson who picked up an injury in training, they are 0-0-3 , conceding 8 goals when he plays 45 minutes or less and CB Josema Sanchez, with 18 yo Maxence Lacroix, who has never played one first team minute, being added as cover.
Auxerre have now won at Sochaux (4-1) and Metz 1-0 ( six attempts on target , 10 corners, five big chances and missed a penalty, they dominated most offensive categories and Metz managed just a single real attempt on goal) and are starting to fulfill their potential in terms of budget and talent. A trip to Le Havre who are very inconsistent, should not hold too many fears and the hosts who were strong here last season (13 wins) including a 4-1 win over Auxerre, have conceded in 6 of 7 at the Stade Océane this time round, won just 3 of those, with 4 of the last 5 going "over" and all 7 averaging 3.0 pg. Auxerre have far more offensive ability than Beziers and Sochaux who have scored 5 between them in two recent visits and there should be goals in this.
HAC will be without injured DM Jean-Pascal Fontaine (he has played 25 minutes or less in just 11 games in three seasons and Le Havre have lost 7) and Bevic Moussiti-Oko and suspended LB Yacouba Coulibaly (missed 6 games in last 12 months lost 5, including the only one at home to ultimately relegated Quevilly).
1.75 units Chateauroux -0.5 ball 2.46 asian line/Sportmarket .
1.75 units Le Havre- Auxerre "over" 2.5 goals 2.23 asian line/Sportmarket.
1 unit Auxerre -0.5 ball 3.83 asian line/Sportmarket.
Chateauroux : Contreras, Pillot - Condé, Fofana, Mboné, Operi, Raineau - Barthelmé, Bourillon, Livolant, Niang, Sanganté, Sissako, Vanbaleghem - Goba, Hassan, Mandanne, Tounkara, Yamga.
Sochaux : Prévot, Zigi - Josema, Lacroix, M'Bakata, Navarro, Paez, Pendant, Verdon - Agoumé, Daham, Fuchs, Gomes, Nando, Owusu - Demirovic, Obadeyi, Robinet, Sané.
Le Havre : Thuram, Balijon - Bese, Moukoudi, Camara, Bain, Ozdemir, Mayembo - Ferhat, Youga, Bonnet, Lekhal, Basque, Abdelli - Assifuah, Thiaré, Kadewere, Bazile, Gory.
Auxerre : Laiton, Westberg - Arcus, Bellugou, Boto, Tacalfred, Youssouf - Adéoti, Féret, Fomba, Goujon, Sakhi, Touré - Dugimont, Ketkeophomphone, Mancini, Philippoteaux, Yattara.
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