The long and winding and often dreary road to the 2026 World Cup!
Sep 04, 2025
You can read the first part of my notes for today's CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers.....
CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifiers
I told you so!
Two years ago, almost to the day, I wrote ....
The very long 2026 WC qualifying campaign gets underway today and runs for two years! Matches this time are being played in exactly the same order as four years ago.
Argentina and Brazil were both unbeaten through the group stage, all other teams lost at least five games and 3rd and 6th ( top 4 qualified automatically, 5th went to a playoff ) were only separated by five points.
This time around it is a bit of a "joke", as, of the ten teams, six qualify automatically and a 7th goes to a six team playoff section where they will be favoured and through which two teams additionally qualify, so very likely that seven CONMEBOL teams will be at the next World Cup, but it takes two+ years to decide which! The last two qualification groups have seen Bolivia and Venezuela finish 9th and 10th, they are going to have to step up and everyone else will fancy their chances. It is not really a fun watch, 18 games, you can lose 5-6-7 and still qualify and you can make a case for only home games and the 4 against the weaker teams having real importance, but we will see. Peru (5th last time,lost playoff), Colombia (6th) and Chile (7th) will perhaps be the most motivated, but best to see a few rounds first and I cannot say that even then I will be desperate to watch/bet on these games given the format. I do usually cover these South American qualifiers, which is why I had to say something today about the changes. The 2026 World Cup finals will have an additional 16 teams and an extra 40 games which will thrill some, bore others and for now, I am in the latter group!
What a waste of time that was! However, just two rounds remain, being played today and Tuesday.
Argentina ,Ecuador (despite being deducted 3 points) and Brazil have qualified. Uruguay and Paraguay need a point, but in reality are already in, given their vastly superior goal difference, Colombia need three points ( or two!). Peru and Chile are eliminated. Venezuela and Bolivia are battling for 7th place and that playoff spot and I suspect that both would have accepted that before a ball was kicked.
Tonight's fixtures.....
Uruguay- Peru (Montevideo)
Colombia- Bolivia (Barranquilla)
Paraguay- Ecuador (Asuncion)
Argentina- Venezuela ( Buenos Aires)
Brazil- Chile ( Rio)
The only official friendly game (nothing at stake) is the one being played in Rio, so that is allowed to kick off one hour later. We are going through the pretence of the other games being key, by the insistence that they all start at the same time!
No nation has played since June 10 and we are in World Cup "year" now, so hopefully these games will be competitive and players eager to impress, at least those that have to. Lionel Messi would probably have to break both legs to not be picked for the 2026 World Cup, after which he said he will retire from international football. As such, today will be his final competitive match on home soil and he has called it a "very, very special occasion".
That probably doesn't overly help Venezuela, but they are not great on the road anyway which is a bit of an understatement with a 0-2-15 record away in the last two qualifying campaigns. Bolivia are notoriously poor away from their very high altitude home stadiums and they have a 1-2-14 record. Venezuela would probably be "happy" to lose today, as long as Bolivia did too and even were La Verde to draw in Colombia, it would still leave La Vinotinto in charge of their own destiny.
What was true for Messi is also true for Uruguay, Paraguay, Colombia and Brazil and this will be the final competitive home game for each ahead of the WC, albeit maybe nowhere near as emotional an occasion.
Ahead of the matches played in June I wrote some fun packed notes about Brazil/Ecuador/Paraguay ......
Brazil-Paraguay is interesting, as it is Carlo Ancelotti's home debut and the visitors are scoring for fun and on a long nine game unbeaten run, which includes wins over Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil. They have scored in their last six starts, with 2+ goals in five of those, including away to Colombia and in high, high altitude versus Bolivia and at home to the group leaders. Ahead of Brazil's trip to Ecuador last week my notes included.....
Everyone likes to beat Brazil and it is easier now than in the past and Ecuador tick a lot of boxes, they have collected 5 more points and conceded a whopping 0.79 goals per game fewer than the Samba Boys. The hosts have also lost just two of seven h2h games here in Ecuador and just one of six competitive h2h fixtures and they are better than for most of those meetings now and Brazil have regressed. The great unknown factor is that this is Carlo Ancellotti's first game in charge of Brazil, he is the possibly the greatest club head coach of all time, but this is his first time in charge of an international team ,he was an assistant at the 1994 World Cup, but that was another lifetime in football terms! He was appointed last month, but will have only had a few days with the squad and despite being multilingual, he doesn't speak Portuguese, so we cannot be sure how immediate an impact he can have.He is the 4th head coach of Brazil in a little over two years through which they have just a 40% win rate and there will be some sorting out to do, a lot of it! They have a home game with Paraguay on Tuesday and that feels much more win-able and after that, Don Carlo will have three months before the next game. For today, odds feel a little too lopsided.
This game is not being played at altitude in Quito, but in Guayaquil, in the stadium of Barcelona SC, the biggest and most beautiful in the country. Ecuador are using this venue increasingly and it is at sea level, which I think helps their style of play under their still "new" head coach. Their record in this stadium is good and they beat Bolivia 4-0 here in November, it will be a first visit for all of the Brazilian players. It is little wonder that the hosts have proved so difficult to score against as they have top and even world class talent in defensive areas. with Pacho (PSG), Hincapie (Leverkusen), Estupian (Brighton) and Caicedo (Chelsea). They also have a very interesting head coach in 44 yo Sebastian Beccacece, he is a disciple of Jorge Sampaoli and the two worked together for many years (13 ?), having huge success with Universidad de Chile and the Chile national team (taking them to the World Cup and winning their first ever Copa America and laying the groundwork for a repeat a year later). He believes that two things win games, ideas and intensity and his teams play with a lot of both. Ecuador are unbeaten in seven since his first game in charge, conceding just a single goal and he has been fluid in formation, using both a back three and four and his teams are aggressive both in and out of possession. With the ball, they often become a 2-3-5 and he insists they play creatively, without it, his players harry the ball carrier, press in great numbers and look to condense space.It feels quite an exciting appointment.
That finished 0-0 and Brazil were a tough watch, they looked sluggish and even weary, four of the starting 11 were aged 31+ and at the end of a long European season, maybe energy levels are low. But this is a Brazilian team struggling to qualify, who have not made it past the quarter final stage of the last four Copa Americas and last four World Cups played outside of Brazil, so we are talking about 2007 and 2002 respectively! Of course they are at home tonight and Ancelotti will be trying to motivate, but it is a dismal record for the Sama Boys and a long while since we have been really thrilled by them.
Brazil dominated play , but only edged home 1-0 in another less than thrilling performance. However, we are three months on and Ancelotti has said he expected to be proficient in Portuguese by now and as a very smart and multilingual man, I do not doubt that. He has also "dropped" Vinicius Jr (was suspended for today), Neymar and Rodrygo from the squad amongst others and Joelinton and Matheus Cunha withdrew with injuries. Upfront they............
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