Monday update .....
Jan 05, 2026
You got to see part of the Friday newsletter and the full newsletter is reproduced below, so that you can have a look at the bigger picture. Five of the six suggested bets won and only Auxerre's failure to score prevented a clean sweep.
Rennes won 2-0. PSG 2-1. Brest 2-0, Senegal 3-1 with the desired Sudan goal coming inside SIX MINUTES, Pau and Rodez shared six goals, with the visitors scoring the two goals we were looking for before the 24th minute!
Friday January 2nd
Next newsletter will be sent by 10:00 UK time on Saturday.
Ligue 1:
| 2025/26 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Lens | 16 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 37 | WWWW | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | ||
| 2 | Paris SG | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 35 | 14 | +21 | 36 | WWLW | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 11 | ||
| 3 | Marseille | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 15 | +21 | 32 | WLXW | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 7 | ||
| 4 | Lille | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 33 | 20 | +13 | 32 | WWWW | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 14 | ||
| 5 | Lyon | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 27 | WLWO | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | ||
| 6 | Rennes | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 27 | 24 | +3 | 27 | WLWW | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 16 | ||
| 7 | Toulouse | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 19 | +5 | 23 | WWXL | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 8 | ||
| 8 | Strasbourg | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 23 | OLLL | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 16 | ||
| 9 | Monaco | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 23 | LLWL | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | ||
| 10 | Angers | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 22 | WWLW | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | ||
| 11 | Brest | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 19 | LWWW | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 16 | ||
| 12 | Lorient | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 18 | OWWX | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 | ||
| 13 | Nice | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 17 | LLLL | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 18 | ||
| 14 | Paris FC | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 16 | LOXL | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | ||
| 15 | Le Havre | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 15 | LOLL | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14 | ||
| 16 | Auxerre | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 12 | LWXO | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14 | ||
| 17 | Nantes | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 28 | -14 | 11 | LLLX | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 13 | ||
| 18 | Metz | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 37 | -20 | 11 | LLLL | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 27 | ||
Players at AFCON:
Angers (4): Herve Koffi (Burkina Faso), Ousmane Camara (Mali), Jim Allevinah (Gabon) and Jacques Ekomie (Gabon).
Auxerre (2): Lassine Sinayoko (Mali) and Danny Namaso (Cameroon).
Brest (2): Kamory Doumbia (Mali) and Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe (Cameroon).
Le Havre (4): Mory Diaw (Senegal), Lionel Mpasi (DR Congo), Ally Samatta (Tanzania) and Fode Doucoure (Mali).
Lens (1): Mamadou Sangare (Mali).
Lille (3): Aissa Mandi (Algeria), Chancel Mbemba (DR Congo) and Ngal'ayel Mukau (DR Congo).
Lorient (5): Arthur Avom (Cameroon), Darlin Yongwa (Cameroon), Montassar Talbi (Tunisia), Arsene Kouassi (Burkina Faso) and Aiyegun Tosin (Benin).
Lyon (2): Moussa Niakhate (Senegal) and Clinton Mata (Angola).
Marseille (2): Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Gabon) and Nayef Aguerd (Morocco).
Metz (4): Habib Diallo (Senegal), Cheikh Sabaly (Senegal), Jean-Philippe Gbamin (Ivory Coast) and Urie-Michel Mboula (Gabon).
Monaco (2): Lamine Camara (Senegal) and Krepin Diatta (Senegal).
Nantes (2): Mostafa Mohamed (Egypt) and Chidozie Awaziem (Nigeria).
Nice (4): Hicham Bouadaoui (Algeria), Yehvann Diouf (Senegal), Antoine Mendy (Senegal) and Ali Abdi (Tunisia).
Paris FC (5): Ilan Kebbal (Algeria), Samir Chergui (Algeria), Moses Simon (Nigeria), Jean-Philippe Krasso (Ivory Coast) and Hamari Traore (Mali).
PSG (2): Achraf Hakimi (Morocco) and Ibrahim Mbaye (Senegal).
Rennes (3): Seko Fofana (Ivory Coast), Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal (Morocco) and Mahamadou Nagida (Cameroon).
Strasbourg (2): Guela Doue (Ivory Coast) and Mamadou Sarr (Senegal).
Toulouse (1): Franck Magri (Cameroon).
Le Havre- Angers is thrown up by expected numbers, as the visitors should have conceded 10 more goals and have 6-7 fewer points and the hosts should have 6 more points and six additional goals. However, we know that HAC are not reliable at home (5 wins in 25 league starts) and they are missing several players, including their starting goalkeeper, so this game has to be a pass.
Toulouse-RC Lens is being played this evening and should be an interesting watch. The visitors will be looking for the three points to keep them top and have had an incredible first five months of the season. They have won seven in a row (one cup) and could probably have done without the Christmas/New Year break. Their expected numbers are also standout, Lens have scored the fewest amongst the top four teams and conceded the fewest in Ligue 1 and their game is all about keeping things tight, but xGD suggests their matches should be producing a whopping 1.06 goals pg more. Toulouse got a promising preseason write up from me....Owned by RedBird Capital, who also own AC Milan and have a minority shareholding in Liverpool. Since promotion in 2022 there has been steady improvement 13-11-10, also some silverware, the 22/23 Coupe de France and a first European campaign in 14 years as a consequence. Their numbers are pretty good, much better than their league position and last season they should have scored 11 more goals, conceded 4 fewer and collected an additional 14 points, which would have placed them 5th. They had a poorish second half of the season, but were pushing for top 8 prior to that. Third youngest squad in Ligue 1 but they will come on for last season. Look solid and a decent campaign awaits.
They might not have wanted the break either, as they won their last three starts (one cup) and drew away to Marseille before that to take some real form into the New Year. Toulouse have to try to try to bridge that gap between 7th and the top 6 and that really needs to start today. BTS feels likely and is perhaps the best call, but just a little too skinny for me, but we should start to see more goals in Lens games from here on in.
Lille -Rennes: the visitors have had a decent season as we expected they might after a disappointing 2024-25 and they have won 6 from 7 starts, but the blip in that sequence was a 5-0 defeat at PSG. I suppose we can forgive them that and it was one of those days where everything the European champions tried came off. Lille are hard hit by injury, suspension and AFCON call ups especially defensively and will be without three starting defenders today and a couple of back ups. Rennes have scored 2+ goals in two of their last four visits to Lille and the hosts who usually keep things tight have conceded twice at home to Paris FC and three at Auxerre in recent starts and surely there will be some offensive joy for the visitors today.
1.5 units Rennes level ball @ 3.18 asian line.
1.75 units Rennes to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.97 asian line.
PSG-Paris FC is the first Paris derby game since the 1978-79 season and only the third competitive meeting in history and is a big deal, especially for PFC who have lived in the very long shadow cast by their neighbours for their entire existence. The two clubs are most certainly "neighbours" with, incredibly, their respective stadiums the Parc des Princes and the Stade Jean-Bouin across the road from each other, 193m apart, the closest derby in the world between two clubs who do not share a stadium.
French football has long needed another team in the capital. It was always eventually going to be Paris FC and we have spoken a lot in recent seasons about their ambition. Since 2023 the majority owner has been Agache Sports which is owned by Bernard Arnault and his family, he is the chairman and CEO of LVMH and with a net worth of over $150bn he is one of the richest men in the world (top 10). Now that they are in the top flight, they want to stay and their budget this season of 120m immediately puts them 6th and half of that was said to be earmarked for transfers and that is more than 7-8 clubs have as their total operating costs! It is circa four times what most promoted clubs have at their disposal and whilst that doesn't guarantee success, it certainly makes life at the higher level a little easier, although it brings with it added pressure and levels of expectation.
PFC appointed former Bayern Munich executive Marco Neppe as their technical director in October.The 47-year-old German, who served as Bayern’s sporting director from 2014 to 2024, has been advising the newly promoted Ligue 1 club behind the scenes since their promotion in May 2025.Neppe was instrumental in Bayern’s signings of players like Alphonso Davies and Harry Kane and brings extensive experience to Paris FC’s ambitious project. That highlights the kind of waters that they are swimming in now. The 2025/26 campaign was always going to be one of learning and seeing where they stand. but they are very ambitious and a relegation campaign is almost unthinkable. However, given that they are closer to the drop zone than they would have liked if they feel seriously threatened, I suspect they will be going deep into pockets in this transfer window.
I am sure that PSG will want to put the "upstart" in their place, but they have conceded in three of their last four league starts and I expect PFC to at least trouble the scoreboard today.
2.25 units both teams to score @ 2.04 asian line and you could add the PSG win to get those odds up to 2.82 should you wish, but this is PFC's biggest game of the season .
Brest-Auxerre: this game finished 2-2 last season and something similar is on the cards today. Last month I wrote .......
Brest have run into some form and won their last three, two versus strong opposition and their numbers across their last dozen or so starts have actually been pretty good and results have only just started to match those.
Brest were promoted in 2018-19 and were expected to struggle given their low budget and small crowds. They have actually finished 14-17-11-14-3-9, that third place was the highest in their history and earned a Champions League spot, their first ever European campaign. It is a true Cinderella story and I am not sure what is more remarkable, that they finished third in 23/24, or 9th last season when they had CL football and games with some real giants of the game to deal with and all with a still tiny budget. Brest know they are living the dream and that they will wake up soon and have continued to cut their cloth accordingly, their budget remains at 45m€ which is 5th smallest in Ligue 1, despite earning 50m€ from their CL adventure.
They had the smallest squad in Ligue 1 by a country mile in mid August, which was padded out by 2 free transfers, 5 loanees and three players who cost a total of 6m€. Eight of those played in the win over Monaco last weekend, five starting and Roy and his DOF Gregory Lorenzi, know how to build a team from very little. I am amazed that Lorenzi has not been poached by a bigger club, at just 41yo he has been at Brest almost a decade and has overseen all their success. Under Roy, Brest have collected 1.55 points pg from over 150 Ligue 1 starts which would normally earn a club 6th-11th place ( last five seasons) and is a ridiculously good record for a club of their size, who have to do a rebuild every season. But maybe it is Lorenzi whom clubs higher up the food chain should be looking at.
Both they and Auxerre are basically offensive first teams and performing better than the league table suggests. The visitors should be 8 points and 7 goals better off and played Lille and Monaco (cup) close in their last two starts.
2.25 units both teams to score and "over" 2.5 goals @ 2.51 asian line.
Ligue 2: Pau- Rodez
These two have the second and third lowest budgets in Ligue 2 and have both been massive overachievers in relation to that in recent seasons and all credit to them both and how they are run. They have each served us pretty well, especially Rodez and it is they who I want to side with today, to continue their fine scoring record in this series 0-5/2-2/2-2 in their last three visits and I am rather sure that we backed them in each (no time to check) but we definitely landed a double bet at good odds in that 5-0 win last season. Pau are 7th, but that budget (there are some big hitters in this league) and negative goal difference strongly hint at some levelling out to come soon and I don't see Rodez as the inferior team.
2 units Rodez to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.51 asian line.
AFCON 2025:
Don't get too excited!
Morocco are hosting and they have spent a fortune on doing so and are rightly favourites and "should" win, but I have absolutely no interest in odds of circa 3.0 with 16 teams left. The last three North African teams to host have all won (2004/2006/2019) and two NA teams made the last four in two of those. That did leave me to look at Algeria/Tunisia/Egypt too but all three look inferior and by some way to the hosts and each have some issues. All things considered I have to pass, but might return to the outright market after this round of games.
Sudan are also North African, although some might argue that they are from East Africa, but look at the map! They are very much the poor relation of the region and they came into the tournament FIFA ranked #117 and they have probably already fulfilled their ambition/hopes for AFCON by reaching the knockout stage where they have to play Senegal and there is a huge gulf in class between the two. Actually, the Lions of Teranga, who have reached two of the last three AFCON finals, winning in 2021, have a great draw and if they reach the final, will not have to have left Tangier and, if you wanted to back a non-North African team to win, they look the best option. Having said that, Sudan are free rolling and they played Senegal four times in competitive games last year (2025) and drew three in 90 minutes. I would not be discussing this game but for three reasons, that familiarity, that Sudan are from the region and the odds, with the underdog priced at circa 22-1 to win and 3.50 to score. Senegal should win to nil, but it will not overly concern them if they progress 3-1/4-1 and Sudan are probably more of a 35% chance to score than 28% and that is the name of the game.
1.25 units Sudan to score @ 3.29 asian line, there are bigger quotes if you shop around.
Good luck!
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