Saturday revisited ..........
Jul 20, 2025
This was the Saturday newsletter I referenced yesterday. The "strongest bet of the weekend" won, the two "strong bets" won , in fact, if you had gone with Nashville to nil (alternative suggestion), everything was correct. Nashville had over 2.0 xGF and 3 BC's so "should" have scored a second.......
Charlotte won 3-2
Chicago Fire won 2-0
Columbus Crew won 2-1
Nashville 1-0
FCC won 1-0
LAFC and Galaxy drew 3-3
Saturday July 19th
Next newsletter will be sent by 10:00 UK time on Sunday.
MLS:
Atlanta United- Charlotte FC
CF Montreal- Chicago Fire
Atlanta hosted Fire on Wednesday and my notes on that and the other relevant midweek previews are reproduced under the "good luck" sign off. That game ended 2-2, Fire bossed the game , might easily have scored three goals and were unfortunate not to come away with all three points after conceding an equaliser in the 95th minute and led for over 70 minutes. Brad Guzan in the hosts goal was their MOTM with six saves. Fire are back on the road again which suits us and possibly them just fine and they circumnavigate the Great Lakes up to Montreal. Where the home side have conceded 22 goals in 10 games and within that 14 in six at home.
United now host Charlotte in what is a derby game and rivalry and not just in MLS play, as the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers (Charlotte) also meet twice per year in the NFL. The visitors have scored 2+ goals in 7 of 9 starts, won the reverse fixture 2-0 back in very early season and have left with three points from their last two visits to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium (2-3/1-3).
Two years ago I wrote .....
Charlotte are in their second MLS campaign, in the first they won 10 home games, a total only bettered by Union and LAFC the two Conference winners and they are always going to get fantastic support in a sports mad city and only Atlanta attract bigger crowds. Their debut home game attracted an all time MLS record crowd of over 73,000 and playing in the home of the NFL Panthers is an advantage given the size and location, which is very much uniquely positioned downtown.
However, for today I want to discuss some of the people behind the scenes. The owner is David Tepper, the 65 yo also owns the Panthers and is described as "arguably the greatest hedge fund manager of his generation" and a very wealthy man. Unlike many of his ilk, his approach seems long term and his senior appointments have followed suit.
Zoran Krneta is Sporting Director and he was appointed in December 2019. He founded the sports agency, Star Sports & Entertainment in 2005 and has identified and brokered contracts for more than 150 soccer players across the globe. He is responsible for all on-field operations, recruiting coaches and support staff, identifying and signing players for the MLS roster and creating the youth development academy.
Special Advisor, whatever that might be, is Steve Walsh, who was also appointed early (March 2020 ...two years before they were due to play their first game), he made my notes yesterday and his name at Leicester City, helping build the squad which won the Premier League. Prior to that he had spent many years at Chelsea and was part of a highly successful scouting team there, but he was in sole charge of recruitment at the King Power and created his magnum opus, signing Jamie Vardy, Danny Drinkwater, N'Golo Kante and Riyad Mahrez amongst many others, all for small fees and from unusual sources. For example, Mahrez from the second tier of French football for £400k and Vardy from non league football for £1m. To give his impact some clout, Sir Alex Ferguson referred to Walsh at the time as the "most influential person in the Premier League", which is a pretty good reference. Ferguson might also have added League 1 which City won by 7 points shortly after Walsh's arrival and the Championship, won with 102 points after his return and second stint at Leicester. Months after the title win, Everton activated a buy out clause for Walsh and appointed him their Director of Football, he was relieved of his duties after less than two years and the story was that the magic touch was gone and that the Toffees had "wasted " £150m-£200m on new players.
Wasted seems a big harsh, Everton might not have made the quantum leap forward that they hoped for, but amongst the Walsh signings were Jordan Pickford who is still the Everton and England goalkeeper and he has just signed a new four year contract. Nikola Vlasic who has recently been sold (not by Everton) for three times what was paid, Ademola Lookman now at Atlanta and coming off a great season, is valued at 4 times what Walsh decided was fair and Idrissa Gueye was sold to PSG for £30m ( bought for (£8m). Walsh also signed Dominic Calvert-Lewin for £1.5 m from a League 1 team where he had never scored, a signing in the mould of Mahrez and Vardy, prior to his recent injury issues he was valued at upwards of £50m and still aged only 26 yo he has almost 50 EPL goals and is a full England international. I also understand that Walsh also suggested to the board, which was refused, paying a combined £20m for Harry Maguire ( later sold for £80m, by Leicester of all teams) and Andy Robertson , subsequently also valued at £80m and long regarded as one of the best left backs in football. Walsh stated himself that he had a deal done and about to be signed for Erling Haaland as a teenager for €4m , which Everton also refused to sanction.
This is the whole thing, without patience, almost nothing works. Everton could have brought Walsh in with a long term plan for several seasons, a budget for Y1, Y2, Y3 and let it play out, but as always most clubs want instant success. The season before his arrival they finished 11th, in his two campaigns at the club 7th and 8th which hardly seems terrible, Walsh doubtless made some poor signings, but not all were turkeys and it was not his decision to spend so much , so quickly. His forte was always spotting bargains and he can clearly do that better than almost any other single individual. Walsh "advises" both the owner and the Sporting Director at Charlotte.
Krneta, Director of Scouting, Thomas Schaling and Head of Analytics and Technical Scouting, Lisandro Isei have all also now signed new and multi year contracts, along with head coach Christian Lattanzio. He originally joined as Technical Coach in July 2021, but quickly replaced Miguel Angel Ramirez in the main role. Lattanzio spent many years working for the City group alongside Patrick Vieira, firstly with the youngsters at the Etihad and then with NYCFC and Nice.
All of those coaches have been with the club for almost three years already , some longer and are now tied up for many more and Tepper, who is obviously used (only) to success, knows this project needs the right people and at least a little time.
They have overall invested a lot of money in finding talent that can identify talent and in improving those players once they arrive, it feels like an established process already, considering Charlotte only played their first MLS game in February last year. They also took great pride in the sale of midfielder Riley McGree to Middlesbrough for a large profit after signing him from A-League in Australia, it was sooner than they ideally wanted to sell, but saw it as a clear sign that the process was working and up and running.
They have signed players from 10 different countries , including Brazil, Argentina and Columbia and Walsh has spoken of South America offering rich pickings and we have already seen the benefits of "bargain basement shopping" there at other well run clubs. Not the most obvious one to point out, but as Walsh had so much success in that league/country previously, the signing of 20 yo CB Adilson Malanda from Rodez in Ligue 2 caught my eye, now 21 yo, he has played pretty much every minute of every game since getting up to speed upon his arrival last August and looks a talent and a very mature player for his age in a position where experience is always seen as key.
Charlotte have got a lot right off the pitch, in addition to all the scouting outlets they have a lot of coaches dedicated to getting the very best and every inch of improvement out of the individual, with a modern and advanced approach to analytics and the mental side of sport/life. It all feels in place now and we can expect on field improvement to follow. That would be termed as a playoff spot this season, 8th and 9th place gets you into a playoff game, but 7th into the, new for 2023, Round 1 playoff series and that should be the target. That will be tough, but top 9 is achievable and surely seen as progress and from year 3-4 a new expansion team can really kick on, witness FC Cincinnati this season.
A very interesting project going on in the Carolinas.
In their first three seasons in the MLS they finished 9-9-5 in the Eastern Conference ,making the playoffs in the last two. They currently sit 9th which will get them in again, but at least 6th place looks achievable. The club are yet to make that quantum leap forward, but everything is in place and as I said above, Tepper is a patient man, unlike a lot of super wealthy individuals. Walsh and Krneta remain at the club, Dean Smith the former Brentford and Aston Villa head coach has been running team matters for 20 months and the other individuals named above only left for bigger jobs. They HAVE to return to the postseason and winning a first playoff game would be seen as progress and will surely be the target. We can keep an eye on them in the next couple of weeks and next season too, as surely even Tepper will be looking for more bang for his buck going forward.
Smith said yesterday that his squad were "fresh" despite the quick turnaround and that they had built confidence from recent results and performances. He also said that injuries had cleared up and he would have far closer to his preferred starting line up going forward.
2.25 units Chicago Fire to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.0 asian line.
2 units Charlotte FC to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.22 asian line, alternative would be level ball @ 2.34.
Columbus Crew- DC United
Nashville SC- Toronto FC
I was very impressed that Nashville got straight back on track (see below) and the 3-0 defeat of Crew was eye-catching and in many ways, with the performance matching the result. The clean sheet was pleasing against such a strong offensive opponent and it almost goes with saying that Surridge and Mukhtar ( again, see below) were amongst the goals, both scoring , they have 28 between them and Surridge is still keeping Lionel Messi at bay for the golden boot. With the top 2 in the East on the road today, NSC will be eyeing up top spot and SS will be desperate to add to his goal scoring tally. Also worthy of mention is first season Honduran RB Andy Najar, he has a goal and record equalling for the club, 10 assists.Toronto will be buoyed by a shock win on the West Coast in midweek, beating Western conference leaders 1-0. However, that means a LOT of travel and time zones to cross on a quick turnaround and they have lost next time out after their last seven wins, including in that trend/sequence was a 2-1 home defeat to NSC this season.
Crew will now themselves be looking to bounce back after that defeat and couldn't ask for a better opponent than DC United who must be exhausted with this their fourth road game inside 11 days, one of which was a trip to the West Coast. They lost all three in a trio of tough fixtures, but did score in each and Crew, for all their attributes, do not keep a lot of clean sheets and any value today is with those trends continuing. DCU have scored in 6 of 9 visits, nine goals total.
2 units Nashville SC -1.5 ball @ 2.23 asian line, best alternative to win to nil @ 2.45.
1.75 units Columbus Crew to win and both teams to score @ 2.99 asian line.
Real Salt Lake- FC Cincinnati
Hard to see how FCC were not bouncing in training on Thursday after that 3-0 defeat of superstar laden Inter Miami (see below) and the visitors did not create a BC and only 17 TIPA's. It was a massive confidence boost for Cincy but no time to rest on their laurels and they were on the plane after Friday training to make the trip West to Sandy, Utah which is at altitude of 1,356m. Despite which, Real have already lost four times at home this season and FCC won on their only previous visit and are twice the team now. Real's goals have dried up and no wonder, they scored 65 last year, but lost the equivalent of 2.5 offensive players in the off season ( over 6,200 of minutes played last season), replacing them with a bunch of unknown/untested options and they are currently on course for 37 goals, a drop off of 28 or 0.82 per game. FCC have been top 3 for three straight seasons and are the best road team in their Conference this season and their game is ideally set up to play on the road and they press high and hard but are also good in transition. They re-invented their offense this last off season and whilst it has taken a little while to gel, they have won 5 of 6 starts and the goals are staring to flow with 12 in five starts, 2+ in each. Evander scored twice in midweek and with 15 to his name is only behind Surrige and Messi and he was a MVP nomination for Portland Timbers last season and is looking to get back on the list!
2.25 units FC Cincinnati level ball @ 2.21 asian line.
LAFC -LA Galaxy
This game is the golden egg as far as we are concerned with Galaxy long being "two goal" clubgowi favourites and producing the goods time and time again in this derby fixture. The two teams have shared four goals already this season and Galaxy have scored 2+ in 16 of 20 h2h meetings ( we have probably backed them to do so in 8-9 of those, sorry, too lazy to check!) eight each in this stadium and on home soil. Those 20 games have averaged 4.15 goals, with one or other team scoring 2+ goals 27 times.
2.5 units LA Galaxy to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 3.0-3.25 ....... win or lose, just great odds.
Good luck!
MLS:
FC Cincinnati- Inter Miami
Nashville SC- Columbus Crew
Two absolute humdingers at the top of the Eastern Conference.....
| Group E | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 37 | 21 | +16 | 43 | WLLW | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 9 | ||
| 2 | FC Cincinnati | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 35 | 31 | +4 | 42 | LWWW | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | ||
| 3 | Nashville | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 25 | +13 | 41 | LWWW | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | ||
| 4 | Columbus Crew | 22 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 38 | 29 | +9 | 41 | WXWW | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 17 | ||
| 5 | Inter Miami | 19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 44 | 30 | +14 | 38 | WWWW | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 14 | ||
These four actually met at the weekend in different matchups and this also has a bit of a round robin vibe. Crew winning 4-2 at Cincy and Inter beating NSC 2-1 ahead of which I noted....
I just do not see how I can swerve Nashville at these odds.
Early this season I wrote…….
Nashville were messed around a bit, being moved from the East to the Western Conference and back again, but are now established in their rightful place, but they are coming off their first ever missed playoff season and that is and was unacceptable. Their head coach was sacked mid season and BJ Callaghan took charge, that campaign was already lost, so it gave him time to experiment and begin the change in playing style that he wanted to implement early. They are looking for a more possession based game and have completely revamped the midfield and Gaston Brugman was signed to anchor this after playing 30 games in that very good LA Galaxy team last season. He has been injured and missed the first two games, but has come off the bench in the last two and must be near a start. Having said that Patrick Yazbek (Viking), Edvard Tagseth (Rosenborg) and Ahmed Qasem (Elfsborg) were all signed for big fees and are ahead in the pecking order right now and that the trio are expected to provide a lot of firepower for two proven goalscorers in Sam Surridge ( 12 goals in 28 games last season) and prolific Harry Mukhtar ( 77 goals and 45 assists in 173 appearances). Mukhtar was signed from Brondby and they clearly love a Scandi footballer! Both were on the scoresheet last weekend in a great and confidence building 3-1 win at Philadelphia Union, who were on fire and had won their first three starts scoring 10 goals.
We have absolutely milked them in recent months and they are unbeaten in 15 games, winning their last five. Surridge (16) and Mukhtar (9 along with 8 assists) have 25 goals between them, which is more than nine teams have in total and all those preseason player upgrades have gelled.
Star studded Inter are going well enough themselves and have an almost identical record to this stage last season when they ended up winning the Conference and Supporters Shield (best regular season record in the MLS) with a record points total. However, after they picked up the two trophies I noted.....
In general terms, in most leagues, teams at the football of the table have struggled to match their numbers and those at the top usually out perform their own, that seems fairly obvious, but sometimes even those are worthy of mention when they are at the extreme end and most extreme of all is Inter Miami and their Dad's Army band of superstars!
Inter should have earned 29 points fewer, an absolutely enormous number, as 45 would have placed them 8th in the Eastern Conference and 17th overall in MLS. To further highlight that , they also overachieved by 0.81 goals per game for goal difference compared to xGD, the most by a country mile in the MLS.
Of course, they still have those superstars and we are talking about players on the world and not just MLS stage, but Jordi Alba will be 36yo next month, Sergio Busquets and Lionel Messi a respective 37 and 38 in early summer and Luis Suarez has just turned 38. Can the Core 4 still perform, I guess. Are they likely to be as good as in 2024, unlikely! The club also sold Diego Gomez to Brighton for a big fee.
Of course, we could just as well argue that all that experience knows how to get the job done (almost) regardless of performance levels and that is true to a degree. However, you can only outrun the numbers for so long and this year too, they have overachieved to the tune of 9 points compared to xP and should have scored 12-13 goals fewer, ranking 19th of 30 MLS teams (Nashville #1). No issue with Inter as favourites, but I see the game as much closer and good value with ......
It was a close game with very even stats and Lionel Messi was the game changer (wonder how many times those words have been written over the last two decades!) scoring twice to edge Inter home. The Argentine superstar set a MLS record for most goals in a six game spell, scoring his 10th and 11th. NSC deserved a point, but need to bounce straight back now after losing that long unbeaten record. They have won all three games next time out at home after a road defeat with an 11-3 goal difference and whilst this is tough, they did draw 2-2 in Crew in May and Columbus have conceded in 16 of 17 starts and can get gung-ho at times. Also , it is hard to see how they scored four goals on Saturday from so little created.
Inter and Messi are obviously on fire right now, but will be a little wary stepping off the team bus today as 53 weeks ago they came here and lost 6-1. However, Messi and Luis Suarez were missing that day, but still, very positive memories for the hosts who have a strong overall record in this series and are unbeaten in four meetings. They also have a strong Wednesday night record under head coach Pat Noonan, averaging just under 2 points per game, so are good on a quick turnaround.
2 units Nashville SC -0.5 ball @ 2.05 asian line.
1.75 units FC Cincinnati -0.5 ball @ 2.42 asian line.
Atlanta United- Chicago Fire
Fire are back on the road, which if nothing else has got me excited! Notes on their trip to DCU last month are reproduced at the foot of this email and should explain the reasons why, doubly so when you learn that they won that 7-1! Their only MLS away start subsequently was a 2-1 defeat at FCC, no shame in that, in fact they created more than Crew did in Cincy at the weekend and they scored four! Fire are coming off a 2-1 home defeat to Western Conference leaders San Diego, but they "won" xG 1.9-1.1, BC's 3-2, attempts 18-7, ITB 14-5, TIPA's 42-15 and corners 7-0.
Atlanta are back home for the first time in seven weeks after five winless away games in the interim. They conceded twice in back to back home games prior to that and it is going to feel odd at first anyway after so long on the road. The hosts remin without a handful of players including three starting defenders which helps explains their awful defensive record, but I understand that a couple are close to a return ( not tonight) so maybe some improvement down the line. For now, my hands are tied ..........
2.25 units Chicago Fire to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.0 asian line.
DC United- Chicago Fire (written June 6th)
Fire are back on the road again after that fine 3-1 win away to Orlando last weekend ......
Chicago Fire have won 4 of 8 road games this season and scored 18 goals, they are the only team to average over 2.0 goals in away games and only Philadelphia Union have won more. Fire also posted a big win in Boston in the US Open Cup and their nine starts away look insanely good offensively on paper......
| 23/02/25 | MLS | 4 - 2 | |||
| 09/03/25 | MLS | 1 - 3 | |||
| 15/03/25 | MLS | 1 - 2 | |||
| 23/03/25 | MLS | 1 - 3 | |||
| 06/04/25 | MLS | 2 - 1 | |||
| 27/04/25 | MLS | 7 - 2 | |||
| 18/05/25 | MLS | 1 - 4 | |||
| 21/05/25 | UOC | 1 - 3 | |||
| 25/05/25 | MLS | 3 - 1 |
We have to forgive the seven goals conceded in Nashville, but "we " think that NSC are elite, so all good with that and Fire have an issue in the Big Apple . However, they scored in each, two plus in all outside of NY and they played three top, top (to parody Thomas Frank) teams and visited several other really tough venues. They travel to another today, but it will be relatively cool in Orlando come kick off and always better to visit in May rather than high summer when conditions can be brutal. City have a strong 5-2-1 home record, but have conceded 11 goals and only three teams in the East have given up more when hosting. Fire have scored 2+ goals in three of seven h2h visits, in 3 of 5 if we eliminate the high summer games and Chicago had long been the worst travellers in MLS play, something they have, at long last, started to shake off , but that makes their scoring record here all the more noteworthy.
Fire led 3-0 in a little over 30 minutes and could then sit back and it was a very comfortable win. They are still only 11th, but are only 8 points off second place and this is the first of two games they have in hand, a win today could see them rise three spots and they definitely look on a par with 7th placed Orland as a minimum. The mood in the team and at the club is very upbeat and the Fire owner Joe Mansueto announced plans for a new stadium in something of a love letter to the city this week....
I love this city. I was born and raised in the shadow of its iconic skyline. I moved here for college 50 years ago – and I never left.
Chicago is where I built my business, my family and my life. And while I never set out to own a professional sports team, when the chance came to purchase the Chicago Fire in 2018 I couldn’t pass it up. Soccer is the world’s game and a world- class city like ours deserves a world-class Club – with a world-class home to match.
Today, we’re proud to announce our plans for a new, privately funded, soccer-specific stadium and entertainment district at Roosevelt and the river. We expect to open in Spring 2028. This new home for the Chicago Fire Football Club will anchor the city’s future 78th neighborhood and serve as a catalyst for job creation, economic development and vibrant community life.
But this project is more than just a stadium. It’s a space for fans of all ages, backgrounds and neighborhoods to come together and celebrate the beautiful game – right in the heart of our city. It’s about investing in Chicago, not just on match days, but every day as a committed community partner.
The Chicago Fire is a Club on the rise. And soon, we’ll have a permanent home that reflects the passion, energy and pride of the city we love.
Sincerely,
Joe Mansueto, Owner and Chairman
Chicago Fire Football Club
The franchise feels on the rise, they have had a seven year playoff drought, but I will be amazed if that doesn't come to an end this season and this is a much changed club, both on the playing side and amongst the backroom staff, who have led those on pitch chances. Gregg Berhalter is both head coach and director of football and Gregg Broughton of Blackburn Rovers has arrived as sporting director. Before spending six years leading the US national team, Berhalter had been with Columbus Crew for five years, again in that dual role that he occupies now with Fire and he took them to the postseason in four of those campaigns and to a MLS Cup final. He was appointed early, in October last year, so he had a long five months before the season started to start a major clear out and begin a rebuild. Fire are big spenders, with Mansueto never afraid to put his hand in his pocket, but much of that has been wasted in recent seasons and I suspect the owner is going to get more bang for his buck going forward. They were not afraid to spend money on some very left field additions in the off season, bringing in players from Belgium, Norway, La Liga and Segunda in Spain and the second and third tier in Portugal and pretty much all are in the starting 11. Broughton reports to Berhalter and his remit is to oversee talent development and assist in the recruitment, negotiation, and retention of players and staff. In addition, he will support Berhalter in implementing the technical strategy and maintaining alignment of the Club’s game model, principles of play, and positional profiles. Rovers are a club with good recruitment history and were and are not afraid to sign players from lesser known leagues and that model has been brought to the Windy City.
Anyway, good to get some background notes down for the future and I am obviously sticking with Fire today. DCU are coming off a fine 2-1 win at FC Cincinnati, but have not won back to back league games since October and a shortage of goals (16 scored is second fewest in the Conference) and goal difference (-13 is second worse and only four teams in the Easy have a negative GD) give cause for concern. In the last 13 months they have won just 3 of 21 home games which is a win rate some 31% below the MLS average and it is difficult to see them as offering value today as a 37% chance. The two teams have already shared four goals this season and it is Fire who have stepped up since then and especially on the road and they have to be the call.
2.5 units Chicago Fire to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.19 or -0.5 ball @ 2.47, I like both pretty much equally, but will officially stick with goals on this occasion.
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