Serie A : goals and both teams to score continue on the rise..............
Nov 30, 2021
Italy Serie A:
Fiorentina- Sampdoria
Verona- Cagliari
Fiorentina have suddenly got sloppy at the back and and ahead of their trip to Empoli at the weekend I wrote ..........
These two both featured for us in the last round of games. Fiorentina recorded a 4-3 win over highflying Milan on Saturday ( which gives them a full 7 days between games) when I wrote .........
Milan's numbers do not fully tally with those of a top team and have nosedived over the last five games, through which Fiorentina are a net +9 BC's and +38 ITB. The hosts have tightened up defensively (conceding just twice in 5 starts, with an xGA of 2.55 ....0.51 pg) and with Milan having gone seven road games without a clean sheet (1.57 pg average) , scoring once might well be enough for the home side to take something from this and they are well priced to do so.
Empoli lost 2-1 at Verona on Monday (giving them a much shorter week) .............
Empoli won 2-1 at Sassuolo in their last start, but that was just the second time in 10 outings that they had not conceded at least twice and Verona will really fancy their chances here after putting in some super solid performances recently and hunting for the win to take them up into European place contention. Verona are a net +13 BC's and +22 ITB over Empoli across the last five games, but that doesn't tell the full story, as in that sequence Verona played Milan (2-3) , Udinese (1-1), Napoli (1-1) away and Lazio (4-1) and Juventus (2-1) at home , four of the top 8 , including the top 2 and they were the better team in the loss to Milan. Empoli have really ridden their luck, they should be 5-6 points worse off, have conceded 23 xG (and real goals) which is joint worst alongside basement team Cagliari and the home side look better on both sides of the ball.
That was the 9th time in 11 starts that they had conceded 2+ goals and doing so today is likely to end in defeat, Fiorentina are decent defensively (see above), yes , they conceded three last week, but they were 3-0 up and switched off a little when they shipped two of those and quickly went two up again and I don't see La Viola letting this become that type of game , they are not facing Zlatan and co today and are healthier team news wise . Fiorentina are a net +9 BC's and +56 ITB over Empoli across the last six starts and should win this. The visitors also get both starting central defenders in Lucas Martinez Quarta and Nikola Milenkovic back from suspension.
But they did let a 1-0 lead slip and very late in the game, losing 2-1 and those five goals given up in the last 132 minutes are a concern.
On the same day Sampdoria hosted Verona and I wrote ...............
I expect goals in this. Verona are the better team and are a net +13 BC's and +28 ITB over Sampdoria across the last six games, but have had 30+ hours less time to prepare for this and have a poor record in the Luigi Ferraris stadium, without a win on their last seven visits (against Genoa and Samp) concededing at the rate of 2.57 goals per game, giving at at least two in each, with all seven producing 3+ . Sampdoria's last 10 starts have averaged 3.7 goals , with BTS in six of the last eight, Verona's last 10 have averaged 3.9 , with BTS in 9 (they gave up 4 BC's and an xGA of 2.19 in the game they kept a clean sheet ).
That played out much better with the visitors leading, but eventually losing 3-1 and it was the 7th Verona game in a row in which both teams had scored and 9 of their last 14 have produced 4+ goals.
They now host Cagliari who are really struggling, but have more goals in them than most teams at the bottom of the table and at the weekend my notes included.......
I was not brave enough to go fully with my instincts last week when Cagliari went to Sassuolo and I noted ...........
After a brief upturn, Cagliari are again firmly at the foot of the table, with terrible last five game numbers, through which Sassuolo are a net +21 BC (massive advantage) and +37 ITB. I suspect that the visitors are better than that, but we are not seeing it right now. However, the last five h2h meetings have seen BTS in each and all end in draws , two finishing 2-2 and that is the scoreline which would not totally surprise me today.
It did indeed end 2-2 and with the NFL yesterday and that Gamba Osaka game last weekend, it feels like we are at least knocking on the door again now, even if no one is answering yet !
The point was enough to take Cagliari off the foot of the table and above today's visitors, who lost 2-0 at home to another struggler in Sampdoria last weekend, that was their third straight loss without scoring and across the 270+ minutes they created just a single BC.
Cagliari should have lost to Sassuolo, but they found a way to grind out a point ,scored twice and that would have given them a big boost ahead of this "must win" game. They are old hands at this survival business and have finished 14th-16th in each of the last four seasons and in six of the last ten, they know what is required and that is to take full advantage of what few chances come your way when struggling.
Salernitana were in the 4th tier just 7 years ago and had not finished above 10th in five Serie B campaigns prior to last season, when they were surprisingly promoted. They were not a standout B team, scored the fewest goals amongst the top 8 clubs and they have a lack of top flight experience amongst their squad which is the weakest in the division and valued at about a quarter of Cagliari and this feels like too good an opportunity for the home side to let slip. Salernitana feature in the next preview.
That finished 1-1 and was the 6th time in 8 Cagliari starts that both teams had scored and they are 16 without a clean sheet, they have also conceded 2+ goals in 11/14 outings.
The last 12 Fiorentina- Sampdoria games have seen BTS in each and it is very easy to see mini shootouts in both fixtures today in a league where goals continue on the increase, since 2019-20 Serie A has averaged 3.04 goals per game and BTS in 61%.
2 units Fiorentina- Sampdoria "over" 3 goals 2.37 asian line.
2 units Verona- Cagliari "over" 3 goals 2.11 asian line.
BTS in both games pays 2.84 + and is a good alternative/ additional option.
Good luck !
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