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Jul 23, 2025
football betting tips -

UEFA Champions League qualifiers: Shelbourne-Qarabag

 
Qarabag are one of those "extra" motivated CL teams I touched upon yesterday and another who have got a lot of European experience in recent years. Last season in August/September they featured several times in my notes ......
 
Qarabag have similarly dominated domestic football in the last decade and have subsequently gained a lot of European experience themselves. Last season they impressed in the Europa League, finishing second behind Leverkusen at the group stage, taking four points from trips to Molde and Hacken, before defeating Braga , who "always" finish top 4 in Portugal and who have more EL experience than almost any team aside from Sevilla, scoring four goals in the away leg in Portugal. Their reward was another two games with Bundesliga champions elect Bayer , they took them close this time, drawing 2-2 in Leverkusen and losing 3-2 at home, leading, rather incredibly, 2-0 in both games, they have goals in them and do not mind playing on the road.
 
The first leg (with Ludogorets) was very open and should have produced more goals, Ludo pressed for a third even after retaking the lead late and are probably not suited to sitting on their lead this evening. Both teams were suspect defensively aerially, but the biggest threat for Ludo in this regard was Caio Vidal who was sent off late and is suspended today, also absent is Bernard Tekpetey who was stretchered off and he has now had surgery on a broken leg. The two wingers are very big losses.
 
Both teams are interesting in Europe and that goes beyond today, but I have more feeling for Qarabag on this occasion, but doubt they will keep a clean sheet and that means two+ goals to progress. They did that and more in Braga and Leverkusen and this is "easier", if not easy. 
 
Qarabag scored the two goals we were looking for and quickly in Razgrad.They led 3-2 at the half and that was the score at the end of 90 minutes, but they ran away with things in extra time, scoring four unanswered goals. They went out to Dinamo at the playoff round stage of the CL and were a bit of a no show in that tie, but they have had the opportunity to reset now and no reason to feel they will not be at their best this evening, for what is a very big game for them at Tottenham. 
 
Qarabag lost 3-0 at the Tottenham stadium, but it was hard to believe the scoreline and on another day, Qarabag not only scored a couple themselves, but probably win the game. Vicario in the Spurs goal was their MOTM and Qarabag won all statistical and offensive categories, they created 2.2 xGF, 3 BC's and were 28-12 for TIPA's and sometimes football is just not fair! Qarabag are a massive 286 FIFA club ranking places above Shelbourne who have only made it past two qualifying rounds once in their history in all European competitions and the visitors should have too much class for the hosts who won their first Irish title in 18 years last season, but who are already mid table and 13 points worse off than this stage 12 months ago.
 
2 units Qarabag -1 ball @ 2.12 asian line.
 
Japan J-League 1 : Urawa Reds- Shonan Bellmare
 
Last weekend I wrote .....After a good start Shonan have fallen back into some bad habits and are heading for pretty much an eighth straight season in the bottom six since promotion in 2017. They are on a four game winless run and it is hard to get away from the feeling that as a club they have an ingrained losing mentality. They are also struggling for goals and 0.73 per game is not going to win you many football matches. In fact, we can make a case for them being very fortunate to have won six so far. At this stage last season goal difference was similar, yet they had scored 12 more and won two games fewer. 
 
They somehow scored three times including a 90th minute penalty to salvage a 
point in a 3-3 draw with Cerezo, but lost every statistical category and I do mean every one and 2-4/2-5 would have been a fairer result.
 
Shonan now travel to Saitama to face Urawa who also featured in a high scoring game at the weekend. Losing 3-2 at FC Tokyo where they led 2-1 at the break and then won BC's 2-0 in the second half and were denied twice by the woodwork!
 
That was a missed opportunity, but they do still have two games in hand and winning those, this is the first (both scheduled for this week), would get them back in the race for top 4 and maybe more ....
 
2025 Overall Home Away
P W D L F A Gdf Pts Form P W D L F A P W D L F A
  1   Vissel Kobe 24 14 4 6 34 22 +12 46 WWWO 12 7 2 3 17 10 12 7 2 3 17 12
  2   Kashima Antlers 24 14 2 8 36 24 +12 44 WLLL 13 9 2 2 23 12 11 5 0 6 13 12
  3   Kashiwa Reysol 24 12 8 4 33 23 +10 44 LWWX 11 5 4 2 14 12 13 7 4 2 19 11
  4   Kyoto Sanga 24 12 6 6 40 29 +11 42 XWWX 11 6 3 2 18 10 13 6 3 4 22 19
  5   Sanfrecce Hiroshima 24 13 3 8 29 18 +11 42 WWLL 11 6 1 4 12 10 13 7 2 4 17 8
  6   Machida Zelvia 24 12 4 8 34 25 +9 40 WWWW 11 4 1 6 13 14 13 8 3 2 21 11
  7   Kawasaki Frontale 24 10 8 6 38 26 +12 38 LWLW 12 6 4 2 23 13 12 4 4 4 15 13
  8   Urawa Reds 22 9 7 6 28 23 +5 34 LWOL 11 8 1 2 16 9 11 1 6 4 12 14
 
Urawa head coach Maciej Skorza spoke yesterday and said his team conceded three bad goals, but that it was their first league game in seven weeks and he expected them to be better today and felt they were still very much in the title race. We should see goals given how both teams played at the weekend and the last two h2h meetings here and last two in Kanagawa produced 21 goals at an average of 5.25 pg. 3-1 feels about right.
 
1.75 units Urawa Reds -1 ball @ 2.47 asan line.
 
1.5 units "over" 3 goals @ 2.77 asian line.
 
Brazil Serie A:
 
2025 Overall Home Away
P W D L F A Gdf Pts Form P W D L F A P W D L F A
  1   Cruzeiro 15 10 3 2 27 9 +18 33 WWWO 8 7 1 0 18 4 7 3 2 2 9 5
  2   Flamengo 14 9 3 2 27 5 +22 30 WLWW 8 6 2 0 20 1 6 3 1 2 7 4
  3   Red Bull Bragantino 15 8 3 4 18 15 +3 27 LXWL 8 4 2 2 9 9 7 4 1 2 9 6
  4   Palmeiras 13 8 2 3 16 11 +5 26 WXLL 7 3 2 2 7 6 6 5 0 1 9 5
  5   Botafogo 14 7 4 3 17 7 +10 25 WOWW 6 4 2 0 13 4 8 3 2 3 4 3
  6   Bahia 14 7 4 3 17 13 +4 25 XWWW 7 5 2 0 10 5 7 2 2 3 7 8
  7   Mirassol 13 5 6 2 21 13 +8 21 WXWW 6 4 2 0 13 5 7 1 4 2 8 8
  8   Fluminense 13 6 2 5 15 15 +0 20 LLWW 6 4 1 1 8 6 7 2 1 4 7 9
  9   Atlético-MG 14 5 5 4 16 15 +1 20 LLWW 6 3 3 0 8 4 8 2 2 4 8 11
  10   Corinthians 15 5 4 6 15 19 -4 19 LWLX 7 4 1 2 11 7 8 1 3 4 4 12
  11   Ceará 14 5 3 6 14 13 +1 18 LLWL 7 4 1 2 8 4 7 1 2 4 6 9
  12   Internacional 14 4 5 5 14 18 -4 17 WWLL 7 4 1 2 9 5 7 0 4 3 5 13
  13   Grêmio 14 4 5 5 14 20 -6 17 XLXW 7 3 3 1 7 6 7 1 2 4 7 14
  14   São Paulo 15 3 7 5 14 18 -4 16 WXLL 8 3 3 2 8 8 7 0 4 3 6 10
  15   Vitória 15 3 6 6 11 15 -4 15 WOLO 7 3 2 2 7 6 8 0 4 4 4 9
  16   Vasco da Gama 14 4 2 8 15 19 -4 14 XLWL 8 3 2 3 9 8 6 1 0 5 6 11
  17   Santos 14 4 2 8 12 17 -5 14 LWWL 6 2 2 2 6 5 8 2 0 6 6 12
  18   Juventude 13 3 2 8 10 28 -18 11 LWLL 7 3 2 2 9 7 6 0 0 6 1 21
  19   Fortaleza 14 2 5 7 13 20 -7 11 XLLL 8 2 2 4 11 9 6 0 3 3 2 11
  20   Sport Recife 13 0 3 10 5 21 -16 3 LLLX 6 0 2 4 2 9 7 0 1 6 3 12
Ceará-Mirassol
 
Ceará hosted Corinthians last midweek ....
 
Ceará have hit the ground running back in the top flight after a two season hiatus in Serie B. They sit two points ahead of Corinthians in 9th, with a 4-1-1 home record and game in hand ,all promoted clubs know that to survive in this toughest of leagues where away wins are not easy to come by, that they have to make the most of home advantage and Ceará have done so up to this point, with a 4-1-1 record. They also play in the NE of the country in Fortaleza, so this is a long trip for the visitors who have lost on their last three visits with both teams scoring, five of the last six h2h meetings in this stadium producing 3+ goals and making this a pretty high scoring fixture in Brazilian terms. Corinthians are coming off a 2-1 home defeat to Bragantino where they created 2.2 xG and won most statistical categories and that seems fairly typical, as not a lot of luck has fallen their way. They are 0-3-3 on the road too, with a 3-10 goal difference which gives cause for concern and they had very similar issues last season, opening 1-3-11 in away games (7-24 GD), before winning their last four on the road. It is a tough schedule for the visitors, they played a "derby" game on Sunday, could only do light prep work on Monday, will be training today and then making the flight to Fortaleza, where it will be 13-14 degrees hotter in the evening/overnight , which will involve a 6-7 hour transit time.
 
Ceará lost both that and a subsequent game at Internacional, which involved an 8,000km round trip by the same 1-0 scoreline and created just 1 BC and under 1.5 xGF across the 180+ minutes of football. They now host Mirassol whom they know well as the pair were both promoted from Serie B last season, with today's visitors doing the double over Ceará, including a 2-1 win in this fixture. Mirassol are unbeaten in six games, including trips to three big name and strong home teams . They really are the Cinderella story of Serie A, the town is 450km from São Paulo and has a population of just over 60,000 and were promoted to the top flight for the first time in their history in their 99th year. But they are used to success after a meteoric rise , winning Serie D in 2020, C in 2022 and finishing runner up to Santos in B last year. They added some top flight experience to the squad in the off season, but the core of the B team remain and some from below that level, they also appointed a novice head coach ahead of this season, but it all seems to be working fine for now and expected numbers suggest they are where they should be. Having said that, the likelihood is that they will hit the buffers at some stage, but for tonight, we can expect them to continue to score , as they have in 6 of 7 away games, also conceding in six and also for Ceará to see this as a good opportunity and one they need to take advantage of, with their next four starts against the top 4 clubs in the league!
 
2 units both teams to score @ 2.14 asian line.
 
Good luck!
 

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Country: 
Brazil
Japan
Sport: 
Football

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