Botafogo are defending champions , but rode their luck to win the title last season, with xP giving them 16 points fewer and placing them 4th. which is probably their true position, or close (5th currently). They have won just 2 of 8 starts and have really struggled this season against top 10 opposition, being 0-1-6 in such games since late April when their opponent has kept 11 men on the pitch, failing to score in six of those. Today they host their biggest rival in Flamengo, but they have lost 4/5 h2h meetings as host, FTS in three. The visitors are in title contention and they and Palmeiras, whom they trail by 3 points have been the two strongest clubs in Brazil across the last decade.Fla have lost their way a little in the last month. They struggled past Estudiantes in the Copa Libertadores quarter finals in a penalty shootout and have taken just a point from their last two league games, without scoring! They did finish with 9 men in the last, played 85 minutes with 10 and still created chances, so maybe we can forgive them that, if not the ill discipline issues. I am not sure how far back you would have to go to find the last time that they FTS in three straight games, they have gone two games previously twice in the last two+ years (that is a LOT of games in Brazil) and they scored four in the third game each time. They are missing a couple of players today, but have a big and expensively assembled squad for just such occasions and that is offset by Botafogo missing their best defender (ever present this season, but winless in two games when he was only used from the bench). Flamengo have the biggest week of their season upcoming, well, starting today I guess, as they host Palmeiras on Sunday and Racing Club in their CL semi final next Wednesday. They simply cannot go into those games at a low ebb confidence wise and need to win today by whatever means possible. Fla are second in the table, but are top for xP and have scored most, conceded fewest, a net 26 goals better than at this stage 12 months ago and statistically are the best team in the league, with only Palmeiras coming close.

 

Updating on Saturday with ......

 

Palmeiras won 5-1 and have now won four straight, scoring 15 goals and they are an elite offensive unit, with 3+ goals in a scarcely believable, given how competitive this league is, 6 of 7 starts (one Copa Libertadores game). They sit top of the table, three points clear of Flamengo who won 3-0 at defending champions Botafogo on Wednesday to set up this game perfectly. They have the 20:00 slot on Saturday to themselves and all involved in football in Brazil will be watching. As good as Palmeiras have been offensively , Fla have scored more this season and conceded fewer and would move top with the win. Hanging over both teams like the Sword of Damocles are next midweek's Copa Libertadores semi final first leg games when Fla host Racing and Palmeiras travel to Quito, where LDU have already played three top Brazilian sides this season with a 2-1-0 record and three clean sheets. That makes it a far tougher week for Palmeiras IMO and involves a 7 hour flight in both directions , arriving at altitude, with Quito 2,850m above sea level. Also, the visitors might turn up at the Maracana this weekend thinking a draw will do and it would, but they do not feel ideally set up to play for one and they run the risk of being caught between two stools. Fla's case is much simpler, they need to win. The hosts have dominated the h2h meetings here in Rio and have not lost at home to Palmeiras for more than a decade.

 

 Like many teams near the foot of the table, Fortaleza are better than results suggest and I touched upon that last midweek, but also like so many fellow strugglers, they are a bit short in the luck department and they failed to take their chances in a 2-0 home defeat to Vasco da Gama when they held a lot of advantages and then failed to score again in a 1-0 loss away to highflying Cruzeiro. That means they have FTS in three of their last four and today face the best defensive unit ( and best offense) in Brazil and a team with a great record in this series. Fla having not conceded in 4 of 5 visits and also winning the reverse fixture 5-0 back in June. Having battled so hard to get back to the top of the table last week the visitors will surely be all guns blazing to put further pressure on Palmeiras who play a day later and after their long and difficult midweek trip to Quito. 

 

2.25 units Flamengo -1 ball @ 2.30+ asian line.

 

Written 22/10/25

 

Good luck!