Today's Championship fixtures...............
Oct 22, 2019
Championship:
Birmingham City- Blackburn Rovers +9/ +13
Millwall - Cardiff City +4/+16
Preston North End- Leeds United +14/ +71
QPR- Reading +19/+18
Sheffield Wednesday- Stoke City +19/+31
Swansea City- Brentford -5 / +55
West Bromwich Albion- Barnsley +43/-37
Updated net ITB numbers for each team alongside the fixture. Stand out games in that regard are at Preston where Leeds are +57 superior, Swansea where the mighty Bees are +60 and the Hawthorns were Albion are a whopping +80.
I saw Brentford- Millwall on Saturday, justice was finally done as the Bees won 3-2, they should have been 3 up at half time, but were two down very late, the Lions were very poor to be honest and I was disappointed in them, they did not have an attempt on goal (of any description) for 49 minutes. Having said all that, they are tough to beat at home and their game today, along with the Birmingham-Blackburn fixture is an easy swerve. If the numbers are to be believed and we know Brentford are good, then they are decent value at Swansea who have lost their two best players and head coach from last season and look to be overachieving and on borrowed time in relation to their league position. Bryan Mbeumo (wonder goal and assist) and Said Benrahma ( two assists and ball tied to his foot for much of the game) look to be coming to terms with the Championship/returning to form respectively for the visitors and this is a big game for the Bees, with the huge televised game with QPR on Monday and needing to bridge that gap between midtable and where numbers suggest they should be. For me, that makes it a personal pass (as I am already "involved), but stats suggest it is a bet. I also have to swerve Albion. +80 is HUGE, but Barnsley played better at the weekend for their caretaker manager and as good as Albion are, -1.5 goals factors that in and is a big handicap in the Championship.
Which leaves the three highlighted fixtures above.
But let's start by reproducing the following from the Saturday email, where in addition to the full ITB stats I wrote ...............
"Expected" league table looks like this ........
1. Leeds 30 pts
2. Fulham 25
3. Brentford 20
4. Preston 20
5. Sheffield Weds 19
6. WBA 17
7. Stoke 17
11. Reading
17. Nottm Forest
20. Charlton
23. Bristol City
On all known data through 11 rounds it is impossible not to see Leeds United as the best team in the championship and they should have won 10 of those 11 games. After that it is a bit of a lottery between Albion, Fulham and Brentford, the trio are placed 6-2-3 on expected numbers, 4,3, 2 for ITB and a very frustrating for Bees supporters 1,7,17 in the real table. But we have 35 rounds to play and it is difficult on the stats available at the moment not to see Fulham and Brentford replacing teams in the top 6 currently, with Forest and Bristol City looking the most likely to drop out. Bottom club Stoke City have top 6 -7 ITB and expected numbers and have that first win of the season now and if the could get a second this weekend it would build some momentum, reinforce the stats and get them on the move. Stoke numbers are really eyecatching and within them, they have been minus in just three games (Leeds, Swansea and Brentford, amongst the stronger teams) and are +43 across the other 8, any justice in the world and they have to be climbing the table soon. They host Fulham on Saturday, which is not the dream fixture, but odds of circa 3.0 probably do not reflect the real chance of a City "upset" win.
In terms of ITB attempts "for", Leeds with 117 are the only team averaging over 10 per game ( 10.64), Albion, Reading, Swansea, Brentford are all around the 9 pg mark. Looking at ITB attempts "against", Leeds and Brentford have given up just 50 each, next best is 63 and only 5 teams are in the 60's making United and the Bees head and shoulders above the rest in this category.
Bristol City have created more than 7 attempts ITB in 3/11 just starts, giving up 7 + in all 11 (8 or more in 8). Forest are net plus ITB in just 2 of 11 and they have been at least -8 in three separate games, really awful reading for fans of either team.
Since I told you how poor Charlton were, after they beat Brentford to move third on Matchday 5 , they have yet to record a positive number and are -33 ITB across their last 7. Athletic and Swansea City are the only two teams outside the bottom 7 to have given up 100+ attempts ITB on their own goal.Reading are the 22nd team in the Championship, but have created 100 + attempts ITB, the third most after Leeds and WBA.
Those notes were incredibly informative and on the money, Giving further credibility to the ITB stats.
Forest and Bristol City both lost to bottom 7 teams, Stoke beat Fulham, Reading beat a top 3 team, Leeds, Albion and Brentford all won and each were fantastic value "in running" ! Charlton did win, but were at home and playing a team with equally bad numbers , so would probably have had to have been a swerve.
Leeds have scored 7 on their last three visits to Deepdale where the wide open spaces (pitch always feels enormous here) suits their high tempo play, winning twice, including 2-0 back in April. United's results have tailed off slightly, but they have not really been where performances suggest they should be pretty much from Matchday 2, but they are the best team in the Championship (at least currently) and suited to playing on the road, as we have discussed a couple of times already this campaign. Last month I spoke about PNE .............
BTW, only one other team apart from (Huddersfield) Town has recorded 4 or fewer attempts from ITB on four occasions (including their last three starts) and they are quite highflying (their numbers above have been skewed by doing better in the other two) , I think they are vulnerable and we will discuss them on Saturday and look to take "them on" for a couple of weeks/starts.
That team is Preston and whilst we have done quite well with them on "overs", they have overperformed to have 11 goals on board and 10 points, they have had just 12 attempts from inside the box in their last three starts.
Since writing that , they have taken 11 points from six starts, which is decent and their numbers have improved, but they have played a whole host of team who have poor ITB /expected stats and we have to take them with a pinch of salt IMO, or at least be wary. Anyway, they will be fully tested this evening and will need to up their game after an awful performance away to Reading at the weekend with home fans calling North End the worst team they have faced and the least ambitious, with another very negative away showing ( I spoke about this last season), hard to win when you don't try to score and it just puts increased pressure on yourself to perform at home and that will ultimately catch them (or anyone) out.
2 units Leeds United -0.5 ball 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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