Yesterday (and today) !
Feb 26, 2026
You can see yesterday's subscriber newsletter below in full, results were a "push" and winners at odds of 2.33 /2.73 and 4.0, the latter being the strongest bet of the day. Also, the three points for Coventry were a big help to our long term position and the Sky Blues are now trading at a top price of 1.44 to win the Championship.
Today's European games did not appeal and the Thursday newsletter was formed of my Premier League notes for the weekend ahead, six games with my best bet of this round of games at odds on over 3.0 and hopefully we can continue to end the month on a high!
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Wednesday February 25th
Next newsletter will be sent by 10:00 UK time on Thursday.
UEFA Champions League:
Juventus- Galatasaray
Juve lost the first leg 5-2 and with Inter and Napoli already out and Atalanta also looking to overturn a multi goal first leg defeat, you do wonder where this leaves Italian football. The national team also has to win through two playoff games, the second will be a one legged game on the road, should they make it, to avoid missing out on a third consecutive World Cup! Inter look the best Serie A team by far ( 10 point lead at the top of the table) and they were humiliated by a Norwegian side across two legs and that is not intended to take anything away from Bodo Glimt, who were great, but this is a sorry state of affairs for Italy!
Juve have to throw the kitchen sink at Galatasaray and will leave gaps at the back in doing so and have conceded 2+ goals in their last four starts, 12 total. Gala have scored 3+ goals in 5 of their last 6 starts, 20 total. But have already lost 5-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt in the league stage which surely has to offer the Old Lady some home. As does the fact they led in Istanbul and conceded twice after they were down to ten men.
2.25 units Juventus to score "over" 2.5 goals @ 2.33 asian line , Juve cannot progress without scoring three and in the cold light of day Gala will not care about giving up three as long as they score at least once themselves.
Paris Saint Germain- AS Monaco
PSG won the first leg 3-2 ahead of which my notes went a lot like this ....
It's all just a little bit of history repeating! At this stage of the competition last season PSG were top of Ligue 1 (twas ever thus) and they were drawn to play fellow French side Stade Brestois who were 8th in the table and the Parisians won 10-0 on aggregate and never really looked back from that point on. This season they again missed out on top 8 and have drawn another Ligue 1 side in the Knockout Phase playoffs, AS Monaco who are, yes, you guessed it, 8th! There is a difference, as PSG are not 10 points clear at the top of the table, they are actually 2nd, albeit only 5 points worse off than at this stage 12 months ago, but that should only further serve to make them want to get this tie done and dusted ASAP.
PSG only really started to look like the best team in Europe last season as 2024 turned into 2025 and it is only now that they have all of their big names back as Ousmane Dembele, Desire Doue, Joao Neves and Achraf Hakimi have all missed significant periods with injury and the latter was also at AFCON. There can be no excuses now, this feels like a big month for them, through which they can get back on track in Champions League and domestically and Monaco look a pale imitation of the team I thought they could be this season, and they trail PSG by 20 points. The two teams met in this stadium in November and ASM won 1-0, but PSG were without four stars, all of whom will feature today and still did enough to have won that and they will want revenge today and to also try and lay down a marker to the rest of Europe, which they did in those two games with Brest last season. ASM are injury hit and will be without 7-9 senior players (maybe six who featured in the last h2h meeting).
It was a wild game, ASM led 2-0 , then PSG missed a penalty, but went in at the break all square and when Monaco had a player sent off early in the second half, 5-2 /6-2 felt likely and perhaps it should have been but the Parisians were very wasteful and their third goal took too long in coming and ASM opted for damage limitation and to keep themselves in the tie. I cannot see beyond PSG progressing, but it was hard not to like Monaco's performance last midweek and also their one at the weekend where they trailed 2-0 at then Ligue 1 leaders Lens, before scoring three unanswered goals in the final 30 minutes to claim a very unlikely win and surely that will give them confidence today. Monaco can have great periods within games and score quickly, 3 in 10 minutes at Lens, two in 17 in the home leg and 3 in FIVE minutes in their previous league game. I am going with them to score twice today, they have done so on 3 of 6 previous visits to the Parc des Princes and if this game "breaks out" and it has that potential, any scoreline is possible, albeit with PSG progressing.
This is my best bet of the day, mainly (always ?) because of the odds.....
2.5 units AS Monaco to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 3.75-4.0 general quote.
The league meeting before last in Paris finished 5-2 and that will be my call and is available @ circa 40-1.
Brazil Serie A : RB Bragantino- Atletico Paranaense
Very low profile start to the season in Brazil and the long term plan is to "catch up" with both Serie A and MLS later in the year and/or during the international breaks, but the odds about the away win here caught my eye, hence this brief update.
Prior to the season starting I wrote .....
Athletico Paranaense are back (from Serie B) after one season away, their relegation in 2024 was a shock, they had finished top 8 in the previous two seasons and had won the Copa do Brasil in 2019 ( runner up in 2021) and Copa Sudamericana in 2021 when they were close to the cup double. Their head coach, Odair Hellmann, has done pretty well in Serie A previously with Santos, Inter and Fluminense and their recruitment has been interesting, signing players from seven leagues and with a heavy Colombian bias (8 ). DOF is Eduardo Freeland who had the same role at Botafogo promoted in 2021 and Bahia promoted in 2022 and has now completed the hat-trick. He obviously left them in good shape as Botafogo finished 11-5-1 in the next three seasons and Bahia 16-8-7. CAP could be anything and look the best of the newcomers.
They will be fairly well pleased with six points and only two goals conceded from their three starts, with both numbers identical to those of Bragantino, although CAP have scored a goal more.
RBB also made the preseason write ups....
I opposed Bragantino a lot last season and they have real issues. 21 points over the second half of the season is drop zone level and their goal difference of -12 has alarm bells ringing loudly and of course, they get big sponsorship, but have to survive on the lowest gates in Serie A. One bright spark last season was Jhon Jhon, who contributed 17 goals from midfield in a side who only scored 45 and they did not win after July without a contribution from him (25 games). It now appears he is on his way to Russia (probably Zenit) and a long season awaits those few fans!
Given all that and that Jhon Jhon did indeed depart for Russia, they will surely be pleased to have six points on board, but one win came against a team who played 70+ minutes with ten men and goals again look an issue and regardless of result this evening, it is difficult to agree pre match with a 48%-25% odds split.
1.75 units Atletico Paranaense level ball @ 2.85 asian line.
EFL Championship:
| 2025/26 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Coventry City | 33 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 68 | 36 | +32 | 65 | WWOL | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 34 | 12 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 24 | ||
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 51 | 34 | +17 | 63 | XOLW | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 22 | ||
| 3 | Ipswich Town | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 56 | 34 | +22 | 57 | WLWX | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 12 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 22 | ||
| 4 | Hull City | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 57 | WLLO | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 28 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 20 | ||
| 5 | Millwall | 33 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 56 | LWWX | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 19 | ||
| 6 | Wrexham | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 53 | 45 | +8 | 54 | WWXL | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 33 | 28 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 17 | ||
| 7 | Southampton | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 54 | 45 | +9 | 50 | WXWW | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 14 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 28 | 31 | ||
| 8 | Bristol City | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 47 | 42 | +5 | 50 | WLXW | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 22 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 20 | ||
Sheffield United - Coventry City
We are on Coventry City to win the Championship (notes below the "good luck" sign off) and they have stabilized with back to back wins after trying hard to blow a double digit lead at the top of the table. At the start of this month I wrote .....
City signed Frank Onyeka of Brentford on loan with the obligation to purchase at a reasonably big fee should they be promoted, he is a far more senior player (than the other two I mentioned that day) and could have signed for any club at this level and will hopefully help see the Sky Blues over the line. They remain top of the table, but only on goal difference after holding a 10 point lead at the start of December!
Their last four starts have played out thus ....
| 17-Jan-2026 | Ch (27) | Coventry City | 2-1 | Leicester City |
| 20-Jan-2026 | Ch (28) | Coventry City | 2-1 | Millwall |
| 26-Jan-2026 | Ch (29) | Norwich City | 2-1 | Coventry City |
| 31-Jan-2026 | Ch (30) | QPR | 2-1 | Coventry City |
They led at both Norwich and QPR and Onyeka can hopefully help them become a little better at holding onto leads with his high energy, disruptive style and he is Brentford's most capped player, with 41 appearances for Nigeria. New month, major wake up call and a chance to go again for City.
He has done just that and already become a fan favourite with his own song! Their crowded treatment room has emptied and all three double digit goal strikers are finally available again at the same time, after Brandon Thomas-assante completed a three match ban and once again, there is real competition for starting places and big options off the bench. For example, the five who were used on Saturday had a combined 33 goals and 12 assists between them and that is a LOT of firepower to have in reserve, 13 second tier teams have not scored that many (45) goals! This is starting to feel like the City of November again, not the one we saw in January and whilst this is a very tough fixture and we have no need to bet, there is some value with .....1.75 units Coventry City -0.5 ball @ 2.73 asian line.
Good luck!
Coventry City should go well, they have finished 5-9-5 in the Championship over the last three seasons. They were a penalty shootout away from the EPL in 2023 and were robbed in the semi final by Sunderland last season IMO. They started last season poorly and made the tough decision to sack head coach Mark Robins who was the third longest serving boss in English football and after he had achieved miracles with the club, two promotions, almost a third and an FA Cup semi final. He was replaced by Frank Lampard, we can talk all day about his merits as a head coach and I was critical of his appointment in charge of a relegation haunted Everton as, in 25+ years in football he had almost no experience at that end of the table. But in the Championship he has been in charge of two teams,Derby County and Coventry and took both to the playoffs. The Rams in his only season in charge and at City, he took over when they were 17th after 17 rounds and guided them to fifth and they collected 42 points (which is top 3-4 level) over the second half of the season.
City operate on a relative shoestring, but are well supported (average crowd circa 28k, 5th best last season) and have not sold anyone. Lampard has good contacts in the game and has already made three signings (two loanees) that look decent and he negotiated some eye-catching loan deals whilst at Derby and we can expect more to come in, as they are no restrictions on those in the Championship, like there are in the EPL. Actually, it seems that City made a £5.5m bid to sign one of those new loan deals on a permanent basis, so must have funds to spend on the right player.They are also due a cut of the Viktor Gyokeres transfer from Sporting to Arsenal.
City had the 6th youngest squad in the second tier, Lampard has a good reputation for working with youth and they will all improve for another year at this level. XP placed them third last season with 75 points, behind only Leeds and Burnley and three superior to Sheffield United. I am struggling with any negatives and another top 6 finish awaits.
Coventry City to win the Championship @ 13.0 general quote.
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