New Bundesliga season about to start.....

football betting tips -
Bundesliga 26/27:
 
 
2025/26 Overall Home Away
P W D L F A Gdf Pts Form P W D L F A P W D L F A
  1   Bayern München 34 28 5 1 122 36 +86 89 WWXW 17 14 2 1 68 19 17 14 3 0 54 17
  2   Borussia Dortmund 34 22 7 5 70 34 +36 73 WWLW 17 13 2 2 40 16 17 9 5 3 30 18
  3   RB Leipzig 34 20 5 9 66 47 +19 65 LWLW 17 12 2 3 40 20 17 8 3 6 26 27
  4   VfB Stuttgart 34 18 8 8 71 49 +22 62 XWXX 17 12 3 2 30 16 17 6 5 6 41 33
  5   TSG Hoffenheim 34 18 7 9 65 52 +13 61 LWXW 17 10 2 5 35 21 17 8 5 4 30 31
  6   Bayer Leverkusen 34 17 8 9 68 47 +21 59 XLWW 17 9 4 4 38 19 17 8 4 5 30 28
  7   SC Freiburg 34 13 8 13 51 57 -6 47 WLXL 17 9 5 3 33 22 17 4 3 10 18 35
  8   Eintracht Frankfurt 34 11 11 12 61 65 -4 44 XLLX 17 7 4 6 29 27 17 4 7 6 32 38
  9   FC Augsburg 34 12 7 15 45 61 -16 43 LWWX 17 7 5 5 25 28 17 5 2 10 20 33
  10   FSV Mainz 05 34 10 10 14 44 53 -9 40 WLWL 17 4 5 8 21 25 17 6 5 6 23 28
  11   1.FC Union Berlin 34 10 9 15 44 58 -14 39 WWXL 17 5 7 5 26 26 17 5 2 10 18 32
  12   Borussia Mönchengladbach 34 9 11 14 42 53 -11 38 WLWO 17 6 6 5 24 24 17 3 5 9 18 29
  13   Hamburger SV 34 9 11 14 40 54 -14 38 XWWL 17 6 6 5 25 22 17 3 5 9 15 32
  14   1.FC Köln 34 7 11 16 49 63 -14 32 LLXL 17 5 4 8 30 30 17 2 7 8 19 33
  15   SV Werder Bremen 34 8 8 18 37 60 -23 32 LLLX 17 5 4 8 19 31 17 3 4 10 18 29
  16   VfL Wolfsburg 34 7 8 19 45 69 -24 29 WLXO 17 2 4 11 21 32 17 5 4 8 24 37
  17   1.FC Heidenheim 34 6 8 20 41 72 -31 26 LWXW 17 4 5 8 23 37 17 2 3 12 18 35
  18   St.Pauli 34 6 8 20 29 60 -31 26 LLLL 17 4 5 8 17 31 17 2 3 12 12 29
 
Promoted clubs .....
 
2025/26 Overall Home Away
P W D L F A Gdf Pts Form P W D L F A P W D L F A
  1   FC Schalke 04 34 21 7 6 50 31 +19 70 WLWW 17 13 3 1 29 14 17 8 4 5 21 17
  2   SV Elversberg 34 18 8 8 64 39 +25 62 WLWX 17 11 4 2 35 14 17 7 4 6 29 25
  3   SC Paderborn 07 34 18 8 8 59 45 +14 62 WXLL 17 10 3 4 35 27 17 8 5 4 24 18
 
Top 4 will play Champions League league football.
 
5th and 6th play the Europa League league stage, which, like the CL, means a minimum 8 games, but also involves playing Thursday/Sunday. 
 
7th placed Freiburg had to play the Conference League playoff round, but won the away leg 3-1 and should ease to the league stage tomorrow, they will also play Thursday-Sunday, but just six league stage games. 
 
Bayern Munich
 
xP gives Bayern 12 points fewer , but still 16 more than the next best so I would not fret that and it is very difficult to see anything but another easy title defence. There is, however, a decent chance that they will concede more goals, xGA suggests they should have allowed 9 more last season and they will be desperate for another crack at the Champions League. This is the stand out stat, one you will not read anywhere else and which we did well with, from their final CL league stage game onwards, through to the semi finals, they gave up 2+ goals in league games either side 7 times and three goals twice. 
 
Borussia Dortmund
 
I put up two outright best last season and one was Dortmund "without" Bayern......
 
Dortmund are traditionally Bayern's biggest rival and they have finished top 4 nine times in the last decade, five times runner up, but no title success since they won back to back in 2010/11 and 2011/12. They came on strong in the second half of last season with 32 points, which was second only to Bayern and they won 9 of their final 12 starts, with a 34-13 goal difference.
 
Dortmund finished 8 points clear of the third placed team and whilst xP had them closer to RBL and Stuttgart, they always looked destined for second and again their finished strong with 37 points in the second half of the campaign. Niko Kovac remains as head coach and feels a decent fit to me , others disagree, but he had to stabilize them defensively last season, which he did, but got criticised for not playing such flowing football. But you have to run before you can walk and they conceded 17 goals fewer, collected 16 points more and only scored one goal fewer and I just do not understand the argument. They look to have strengthened as I type and seem unlikely to sell anyone at this stage without a like for like replacement.
 
 
RB Leipzig
 
RBL were poor in 24/25 which I discussed ahead of last season.....
 
RBL were 7th, which was their lowest finish since coming into the league in 2016/17  (posting five top 3's) and they missed out on European football for the first time since then, but is that a blessing in disguise? As bad as they were last season (it is all relative), they should have conceded 16 more goals ( 15th !) according to xGA and xP puts them on 9 fewer points (10th). Maybe Jurgen Klopp should spend less time advertising Trivago and more on his job as Global Head of Soccer for Red Bull!
 
RBL sold Benjamin Sesko for a very big fee along with a couple of other low level outgoings and signed seven players for circa 110-120m, for a net spend of 25m. Sesko contributed 13 goals and 5 assists last season, but they were "poor" anyway so I think that overall this is probably good off season business.
 
The lack of European football was huge and helped them collect an additional 13 goals and 14 points, but they still sacked first season head coach Ole Werner at the end of the campaign (this was a decision apparently led by Jurgen Klopp) and replaced him with Martin Demichelis. He knows European football well enough, but the 45yo Argentine has no senior experience of the Bundesliga since he played for Bayern (2010) and none as a coach in European football. I have some real doubts about this appointment and RBL could again struggle with a league and European schedule. They have sold 19 yo soon to be superstar Yann Diomande to Real Madrid for a king's ransom ( most of which they have kept) he contributed 12 goals and 9 assists in the Bundesliga and the only game he missed was a 3-1 home defeat. 
 
VfB Stuttgart
 
Stuttgart were our other outright selection last season (top 4) ......
 
Stuttgart have finished 9-15-16-2-9 since returning to the Bundesliga and that second place in 23/24 was their highest since winning the title in 2006/07. They were a breath of fresh air the season before last with 78 goals and 73 points,  a first Champions League campaign in 15 years was too much last season, but they retained a goal threat and 64 scored was 8 more than anyone else outside the top 4. Further encouragement comes by way of xP (+8 points) and xGF (+7 goals) and the latter only puts them 7 adrift of that fine 23/24 campaign. They also won the DFB-Pokal last season, that gives them Europa League football, but it is not the distraction that the CL was and they will be more used to a European campaign now. They have been active in the market, with five in and five out, but they sold one to Saudi for a largish fee and overall, it feels like good business. Head coach Sebastian Hoeness remains despite being much admired, he has had 100 games at the helm, through which they have scored an average of 2.10 goals per game, guiding them to the Champions League, second place and winning some silverware, it is a great CV. I am a pretty big fan and early in that 23/24 campaign I wrote ......Stuttgart play with great joy under Sebastian Hoeness who was the first coach to win Germany's third tier with a reserve team, his record at Hoffenheim looks great with hindsight and having saved Stuttgart last season, he has completed the about turn and got them playing with gay abandon in possession.
 
First up I will say that top 4 was fully deserved and they are a fun watch and I find it incredible that they have been able to keep Hoeness as head coach and I felt sure the EPL would come calling and maybe they have. Their expected numbers are a shade under what they achieved, but not by too much and another good season can be expected, but a return to CL football is a concern and they really struggled with that in 24/25. They look to have had a good window and I like the additions of Grischa Promel who had a great season with Hoffenheim and brings an experienced option to CM and Dzenan Pejcinovic who scored 11 goals in a relegated side (Wolfsburg) in his first senior season and as a 20yo, he scored a hat-trick in the DFB Pokal last week on his debut for the club.
 
TSG Hoffenheim
 
Massive step up for Hoffenheim last season with a 36 goal and 29 point ( almost double) increase over 24/25. However, they tired over the closing weeks and collected "only" 16 points from their final 10 starts, they played only two domestic cup games and had no European football to deal with and the likelihood is that they will have to play an additional 10-15 fixtures. Now here's a biggie, this is just their 5th time in Europe, in the last two they had to play Thursday-Sunday, just like this season, and they finished 11th (20/21) and 15th (24/25) in the Bundesliga. They have signed a handful of young players with potential and balanced the books with the sale of Bazoumana Toure ( 5 goals and 15 assists in 45 league appearances) to Newcastle United. The losses of Promel ( see Stuttgart notes). Tabakovic and Nsoki robs them of experience in a very young group that is returning to Europe. XP gave them 54 points last season, which is the level they played at over the final 10 games, add in the sales and European football and it feels like mid table awaits.
 
Bayer Leverkusen
 
I foresaw some drop off for Leverkusen ahead of last season....
 
Bayer have finished top 6 last 8 seasons, but only two top 2 finishes (in each of the last two campaigns) and whilst there was a 21 point and 36 goal drop off last season from that title winning campaign, it was still their second  best season by far in the last decade. XP suggests that they overperformed to the tune of 9 points and xGF that they had also scored 9 more than they should have. All change at the club! Also an end of an era in Leverkusen, albeit a brief one, with Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong, Lukas Hradecky and several others departing for circa 200m€, along with head coach Xab Alonso and a number of his staff as is the norm. About half that money has been spent on ten or so additions, but half of those are for the future, or back ups. Erik ten Hag has come in as head coach, I was very scathing of him at Manchester United, where he looked and felt out of his depth, maybe Leverkusen is a better fit and definitely less under the spotlight, but the jury remains out for the time being.
 
ETH lasted a couple of weeks and was replaced by Kasper Hjulmand, but he left at the end of the season and now Carles Martinez Novell is in charge, but a couple of things, his contract is only two years, same as Hjulmand and it seems a strange appointment. For the first 36 years of his life (born/raised/school/ Uni/ played/coached) I am not sure he ever left Catalonia! He then spent two seasons with Kuwait U20, followed by three with Toulouse where he did well enough, but he faces a whole other level of expectation at Leverkusen. He also doesn't speak German. 
 
Leverkusen do not have CL football and Europa League is easier, but means Thursday-Sunday football. They have spent and received circa 100m this summer, but 40m was from Arsenal for Piero Hincapie, who had already spent last season with the Gunners on loan, so we have to view this as a positive window.
 
My first thoughts were that BL would have a good 26/27, but I am not sure about the head coach and all that Sunday football and on reflection, another Neverkusen season awaits.
 
SC Freiburg
 
It is very difficult not to admire Freiburg and how they are run. Last season I spoke about some issues and a return to European football....
 
Freiburg recorded their 3rd top 6 finish in the last four seasons. 5th is their joint highest since 1994/95 and they were helped last season by no European football, having finished 10th in 23/24, the most recent time that they have played domestically and in Europe. Freiburg have a concerning -17 goal difference across the last two seasons and you have to go down to Augsburg in 12th place to find a team who scored fewer goals in 24/25. They sold Ritsu Doan for a decent fee to Frankfurt ( see below) and one other and spent roughly that (an additional 5m€ ) on six additions, mostly low profile ,which is how they operate.
 
They had an amazing season. Finished 7th and reached the semi final of the DFB-Pokal and final of the Europa League. Again they had that terrible goal difference and didn't score enough, which always concerns me, but it doesn't seem to matter to them! Of course they have sold seemingly important players and that doesn't seem to change anything either! Big name to have departed is Johan Manzambi ( Aston Villa), but they signed four for between 7m-12m € and you know that there will be a gem or two amongst them. 
 
Julian Schuster has been head coach since March 2024 , he took them to 5th place in his debut season ( it should have been top 4) and to that amazing last campaign. The 41yo knows the club inside out, having been at Freiburg as player and coach for 18 years and people love this city and club, his predecessor was in the job for 13 seasons.
 
Expected numbers were about the same as reality, playing Thursday-Sunday is less of a concern for them as they are used to it and the Conference League is weaker.
 
Eintracht Frankfurt
 
Wow, this is tough. Ahead of last season I was largely doom and gloom....
 
Frankfurt finished 3rd, their highest league placing since their return to the Bundesliga in 2012 and they have posted only one top 5 in that time. XGA suggests that they should have conceded an additional 7 goals.They will be weaker for the sale of Hugo Ekitike, although they have spent just over half that massive fee on four newcomers, including RW Ritsu Doan from Freiburg(10 goals and 8 assists) and CF Jonathan Bukardt (18 and 3 for Mainz)  which looks good on paper, but both are coming off their best seasons by some way and no guarantee they can come close to reproducing those numbers at a bigger club and whilst dealing with Champions League football. In their only previous CL campaign since 1960 (2022/23) they ran out of steam badly, with only 12 points from their final 13 Bundesliga games.
 
They were poor(ish) in the league and awful in the Champions League and defensively were a mess. Who concedes 65 goals in the Bundesliga (3rd most) and finishes 8th? They also shipped 21 in 8 CL league stage games.
 
This season they have again made a big sale (Nathaniel Brown to Bayern) and have been shopping largely in the bargain basement with a handful of additions. Adi Hutter has returned as head coach, he was in charge for three seasons from 2018-19 leading them to 7-9-5 in the Bundesliga and to a Europa League semi final.
 
No European football is a blessing in disguise and when I saw that they had won all five preseason games and by a combined 18-2 I was a little interested and they did play a couple of decent opponents, including Hull City of the EPL and when I add that they won the 7th 11-0(!) you might ask what is the problem! Well, it was the 6th game! That was at Brentford and I went to take a look at EF and it was a horror show. The Bundesliga side were awful and a total mess defensively, the Bees won 7-0 and stopped trying after the 70th minute, otherwise, it might easily have been 10 or 11. Now, Brentford might be the reincarnation of Barcelona 2011 and that is possible, but it is difficult to overemphasize just how poor EF were and how devoid of ideas Hutter was.
 
It will be interesting to see how they fare, but EF were slow starters under the head coach in two of his previous seasons at the helm ( won 1/5 and 2/12) and also in their first season under Oliver Glasner ( one win in ten) and I would not trust them until I have seen a proper performance, especially defensively against a top side.
 
FC Augsburg
 
Last season I wrote ...
 
Augsburg have finished between 11th-15th in each of the last 10 seasons and you can almost guarantee that is where they will be placed come next May. They might flirt with a run at the lower European spots or relegation, but once the dust settles, another lower mid table spot will be secured. They are another team that didn't score enough, but the last time they scored as few, they upped that by 8 the following season and scored 50 (15 more) in 2023/24 so it is not a huge concern. Along with Union, they were joint 7th with 24 points in the second half of the season. Augsburg have been doing their usual transfer dealing, but it looks like they have just preserved the status quo, which is their MO!
 
They broke their duck and finally posted a top 10 finish (9th), but 43 points was the same as 24/25 (12th) as was -16 goals and set your watch, they will finish 11th-15th! Nothing wrong with that, they have done wonders to stay in the top flight for so long and that should be viewed as an achievement. Their "one season" head coach has got a two year extension and they spend what they receive, well run club who continually punch above their weight.
 
 
FSV Mainz 05
 
12 months ago I wrote ....
 
Mainz's 6th place was their best since 2015/16 and they have never in their history finished higher than 5th. XGA suggests they should have conceded an additional 8 goals putting them on 51, which is exactly what they gave up in 23/24 when they finished 13th. 
 
Last season they fell out of the blocks and only had 12 points at halfway, but improved to 10th, however, they conceded 53 goals and had a -9 goal difference. It is possible they can improve upon all of that as they have no European distractions and 28 second half of the season points is usually 6th or 7th place level. Also, expected numbers are good, +10 points and scoring 19 more(!), albeit also conceding an additional 9 goals. Certainly a good chance that we will see more high scoring Mainz games. Urs Fischer who had such huge success at Union Berlin ( see above) took charge in December and oversaw the upturn and looks a fantastic appointment. They have traded pretty much as we would expect of a club their size and budget and with Fischer at the helm. It appears DM, Kaishu Sano, who is much admired, might be on his way for a big fee there is a lot of interest and Mainz have signed two DM's in this window, so I have added 2+2, but might have got 5! Anyway, Mainz to improve, we will discuss by how much on Wednesday.
 
 
Union Berlin
 
Union were promoted to the Bundesliga for the first time in 2019 and in their first four seasons not only survived but thrived, finishing 11-7-5-4 and played Champions League football in 2023/24, it is a true Cinderella story. That CL was always likely to make the domestic campaign tough and they finished 15th that season, 13th in 24/25 and 11th last season. That might sound like progress, but they actually picked up a point less last season and across those three seasons they have had a very worrying -55 total goal difference and did not score enough in the first two of those. They did score an additional nine last season, but quite a few came late in the campaign when they were playing "friendly" games. 
 
After that golden period under Urs Fischer they are on their 7th head coach (two interim) in less than three years and 50 yo Mauro Lustrinelli is the latest to try his hand. He took charge in May, but has never played or coached outside of Switzerland previously. Lustrinelli did have big success with Thun (the only club at which he has been head coach) with his high pressing style, but Thun is a small picturesque town of 45,000 and now he is in Berlin and it is hard to think of two more polar opposites. The loss of CB Danilho Doekhi, who has been ever present in each of the last two seasons to Lazio on a free transfer feels big. They do have some potential with expected numbers, but need to find a goal scorer as most came vis committee last season and Doekhi was one of those. The loan signing of MLS "flop" Emmanuel Latte Lath is worthy of mention as Atlanta United paid a massive fee for him from Middlesbrough (he had scored 27 Championship goals in two seasons, after arriving from Atalanta) and maybe a return to Europe will relaunch his career.
 
 
Borussia Mönchengladbach   
 
This is tough, as BMG can look good one week and poor the next. They have finished top 10 in 9 of 11 seasons, with three top 5's and 11th last season was close to that. But after scoring 52-66 goals for 7 straight seasons, they managed just 42 in 25/26 and a -11 goal difference (xGD was about the same) doesn't augur well and it seems they cannot improve on one side of the ball, without it coming at a a cost on the other! They have  had a revolving door in the changing room this summer with about a dozen players in and out, spending half of what they received, most of that for CM Rocco Reitz who completed a big money move to Leipzig and CB Nico Elvedi who has been pretty much the first name on the team sheet for a decade, who has gone to Leeds United. They will not be easily replaced.
 
1.FC Köln
 
Survived as a promoted club and started well, winning three of their first six games and they ended the campaign as top scorers in the bottom half of the table which has been a big concern coming in. It had been a rollercoaster ride for Köln over the last decade, two relegations, two 2.Bundesliga titles and two top 7 finishes in the top flight, so last season felt almost perfect in terms of stability. They unearthed a gem in 19yo Said El Mala who scored 13 goals and provided 5 assists in his first season in the Bundesliga after playing only third tier football previously. Brentford and I understand Brighton, were both very keen to sign him, but the deal fell through as the clubs were not prepared to also sign his older brother, who is also with Köln and the whole family were involved, his mother being his agent and things got too complicated for the EPL clubs. The player has now signed a contract extension with Köln it seems. Obviously El Mala is the real deal, given the clubs who were interested in him, but he will be without his partner on the left Jakub Kaminski who also had a 12 goal contribution ( 7 and five) and it might be tough for a teenager to reproduce those numbers after so much speculation over his future. Köln also conceded 63 goals which was the most of any team that survived and is the biggest problem that 38yo head coach Rene Wagner, who took charge with 7 games remaining last season, stepping up from assistant, needs to address. The club have signed two CB's and two DM's so it seems they have tried to. XP gives them an additional 9 points and places then 11th.
 
 
Hamburger SV
 
Hamburg were the other big club who came up last season along with Köln  and, as I said at the time, "the Bundesliga needs these two almost as much as the reverse is true." The pair were the 5th and 7th best supported clubs with average attendances of 50,000+.  HSV survived, but xGA suggests they should have conceded 12 more goals and xP placed them joint second bottom with relegated Heidenheim. Given their standing in German football, size of the club and how long it took to return to the Bundesliga ( seven seasons in the second tier, finishing top 4 in each!) I was surprised how little they spent last summer and again they have only spent, as I type, what they have brought in. They have not flashed the cash, as I felt they might.  Head coach Merlin Polzin is only 35yo and remains at the club after closing in on two years and first promotion and then survival clearly filled the brief. He is tactically fluid, likes to get the ball wide and into dangerous areas as quickly as possible and is supposedly a magician (see what I did there!) with set pieces which Hamburg spend a lot of time on, but which they underperformed with last season, so some room for improvement there. However, more to concern than thrill ATM and I did not expect to be writing that ahead of a second top flight season for this club. It seems that they have made a profit for 5 straight seasons and look to be keeping a tight hold on the purse strings!    
 
Werder Bremen
 
Ahead of last season I wrote ....
 
8th was Bremen's joint highest finish since 2010, but they have improved in each of their three campaigns since a one year hiatus in the second tier.... 13th-9th-8th and even more significantly in terms of points 36-42-51. Goal difference also improved -13,-6,-3, but that was their 5th straight Bundesliga negative goal difference and they were one of only two top half of the table teams to record one last season and that needs to be addressed, but I do not think it has. Not a lot of business either in or out and they have looked poor in preseason and lost to a lower level team already in the DFB-Pokal, with goals being a major issue. 56 yo new head coach Horst Steffen has never coached in the Bundesliga and mainly at the third tier or below, he plays a rigid 4-2-3-1 and Bremen have played a back three in every game in the last three seasons, through which they have improved, go figure! Some very odd decisions are being made at the club IMO.
 
They finished 15th with a -23 goal difference ( xGD -20), scoring just 37 goals and only basement club St Pauli managed fewer. Steffen ( see above) was sacked in February and replaced by Daniel Thioune who has done well enough at the lower levels (but no Bundesliga.2 promotions) and this is his first top flight appointment. His record was 4-1-9 in his 14 games in charge and the club only collected 14 points total in the second half of the campaign. They have signed 9 players most on free transfers , loans or for minimal fees , including re-signing Niclas (sick note) Fullkrug from West Ham, who several Hammers supporters have called their "worst ever signing" and there is fierce competition for that dubious honour! To be fair, the striker agreed a big drop in salary to make the loan move possible, so we have to assume he is committed to the cause. They have sold ever present AM Romano Schmid, starting GK Mio Backhaus and CB Karim Coulibaly for a combined 40m€ to two of which I consider smaller clubs.
 
There is so much here that, like last season, is very hard to understand. I appreciate they are operating under tight financial restraints, but they seemed in a good position to kick on and have shown no ambition to do so and IMO, the head coach appointments have been very odd. Goals again feel like an issue, Jens Stage has scored 10 in back to back seasons from CM, but never more than 5 at any club prior to that and he will do fantastically well to get the hat-trick without Schmid alongside him and the truth is, if he wasn't soon to be 30yo, that Bremen would have sold him!
 
At the moment, it feels like another long season for Bremen supporters.
 
FC Schalke 04
SV Elversberg
SC Paderborn 07
 
I am going to take the three promoted clubs together, as there are are few similarities. First up, they all have young head coaches (aged 40-43) who each got their club promoted in their first season in charge, none of the trio have any Bundesliga experience at senior level.  The Schalke boss is Miron Muslic who you may remember made an articulate and impressive speech to the Plymouth Argyle squad upon his arrival at the club last season which went viral ....
 
 
He only stayed for 5 months and left as soon as Schalke came calling. That was not a huge surprise as they are a big club and that is true even in Bundesliga terms, let alone the second tier, as they were. Schalke were promoted as champions with 70 points, 8 clear of the other two and xP gave them an additional 4 and Paderborn 8 points fewer. Schalke had a scarcely believable average home attendance of almost 62k, which dwarfed Paderborn on 14.5k (14th best) and Elversberg's 9k, the lowest in the division. Those crowds are second only to the big two, Bayern and Dortmund in Germany. Therefore, it is a little surprising to me that they have spent very little, although they have kept their title winning squad intact.
 
Schalke are retuning after three seasons in the second tier, they were also promoted as champions in 21/22 but only stayed up the single season. Pre COVID they had a long run in the Bundesliga and were Champions League regulars, between 07/08 and 17/18 they posted six top 4 and eight top 6 finishes and, given their massive support, long term they will be looking to return to that level. I do have some issues, 50 goals scored last season is a worry and 31 conceded is not going to be possible to come close to replicating in the Bundesliga, even Bayern gave up 36 goals last season and four who survived shipped 60+. So a different mindset/approach is surely needed.
 
Elversberg are a tiny club, but are living the dream. They were playing 4th tier football in 2022, won Liga 3 the next season and have finished 11-3-2 in the last three seasons and are now in the Bundesliga for the first time in their history, so big success and a winning mentality. However, they have come a long way very quickly and that always seems to catch up with clubs eventually. They are immersed in the local community and their principal sponsors, Ursapharm, are the biggest employers in a tiny "village" and former professional footballer Frank Holzer is chairman of both the company and club. They have spent roughly 15m€ on transfers/loans/signing on fees mostly for young players from bigger clubs and kept everyone they wanted from last season. That all seems good business and that they are well run and not just here to make up the numbers and they could surprise a few teams and their tiny home stadium could make life uncomfortable for visitors.
 
Paderborn have secured their third promotion to the top flight since 2014, they finished last in each of the previous two and, after the first, tumbled immediately to the third tier. However, after the last relegation they stabilised and finished 9-7-6-7-4-3 so were not promoted out of turn, but neither can they really be considered a "good" promoted side and 27 home goals conceded was an enormous number for a promoted side. They have spent a little, but the losses of CB Calvin Brackelmann to Augsburg, LW  Filip Bilbija  (Derby County) and CM Mika Baur to Celtic feel huge and they contributed 22 goals and 11 assists in a team which only scored 59. A third straight Bundesliga 18th place is a real possibility.
 
Good luck!
 
 

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