Nine games into the Bundesliga season...........
Nov 13, 2026
Bundesliga :
| 2026/27 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Bayern München | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 9 | +20 | 21 | WXWW | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | ||
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 | WXWO | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | ||
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 19 | WWLL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | ||
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 18 | WWWL | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | ||
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 16 | WLLW | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | ||
| 6 | SV Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 | LWWX | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | ||
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 13 | LWLW | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | ||
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 15 | +0 | 12 | WWLL | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | ||
| 9 | TSG Hoffenheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 12 | WLWW | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | ||
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 | XWLW | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 13 | ||
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 | WLLW | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 13 | ||
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 10 | LLLW | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | ||
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 | XOWX | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | ||
| 14 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 20 | +0 | 9 | LLXL | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 13 | ||
| 15 | 1.FC Köln | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 9 | LXOL | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | ||
| 16 | 1.FC Union Berlin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 7 | LXXO | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 14 | ||
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 6 | LLOL | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | ||
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 4 | LOWL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 15 | ||
Our four preseason outright bets remain in decent overall shape, despite Mainz having fallen off a cliff ( 4 defeats in a row, one cup) since the first international break......
1 unit Freiburg to finish top 4 @ 10.0 general quote.
4 units Freiburg to finish top 6 @ 4.0 general quote.
2 units Mainz to finish top 6 @ 5.0 general quote.
3 units Borussia Dortmund without Bayern Munich @ 2.50 general quote.
Freiburg now trade at a respective 2.90 and 1.44 for top 4 and 6
Dortmund are a top quote of 1.91 without Bayern.
Mainz are 7.0 for top 6 and there is no need to give up completely on them just yet and being 6th for xG, 7th for xGD and xP offers hope of a turnaround. They are also 2nd for BC's created and the best team from offensive set pieces and I expect results to turn again soon. They do need to sort out those home game blues which we have discussed a couple of times recently, until they do and I think/hope they will, we will have to swerve them as host. But still plenty of potential there. Nil desperandum!
Obviously we have tremendous value with Dortmund and especially Freiburg
Bundesliga goals have dropped slightly since the first break, but are still running at 3.48 per game in what is always a very high scoring league and that is 0.31 up on this stage last season.
I highlighted what I considered to be big Frankfurt defensive issues in preseason and they have already conceded 20 goals and EF have given up 42 BC's ( 3.82 pg) in their last eleven Bundesliga starts. These defensive problems seem deep rooted and have been with them a long time.
Bayern have assumed their usual and what they would consider rightful place at the top of the Bundesliga, but they have kept just one clean sheet in nine games across all competitions, conceding 2+ in four . Nine goals conceded in the league might not sound too many, but it is the most they have allowed through nine games since 2020/21. It is not the Bayern way to give up on anything and they will want another Bundesliga title, but I have absolutely no doubt that the Champions League is their priority and last season, they were far more vulnerable in the league either side of CL knockout stage games as we discussed frequently.
Schalke games should be producing an additional 1.3 goals, still bottom 3-4 level performance wise, just with more entertainment and they are going to have to start taking some of those chances even if it comes at a cost at the other end of the pitch to survive. Better to go out as a lion than a lamb and failing to score in 5 of 7 starts (one cup) is only going to end in tears and sackings! Supporters still turn up in big numbers and 62k is the third highest average in the Bundesliga, behind only Bayern and Dortmund.
In stark contrast, Elversberg have made a terrific start to life in the top tier and will be beyond delighted with 4 wins and 7th place. However, they have outperformed their numbers on both sides of the ball and come out bottom for xGA and their xGD should be 0.6 per game worse and they are also going to be less of a surprise package going forward.
BMG's xGD is almost a goal per game better than reality and we saw a brief rally following a disastrous start to their season, but a 0-0 draw with Paderborn and 3-1 defeat at Hamburg to take into the break wiped away any sudden optimism. Head coach Eugen Polanski was dismissed after Matchday 3 and replaced by Alexander Blessin, he was in charge of St Pauli for the last two seasons. The Hamburg side finished 14th and then 18th (last) under him and across the two campaigns, their points total went down from 32 to 26 and goal difference from -13 to -31 and he won just 20.59% of games. He had some success in Belgium with two different clubs, but had a LOT of analytics help at one and I am not quite sure what he brings to BMG right now other than a lot of Bundesliga experience of relegation battles , ultimately unsuccessful. It doesn't exactly sound like an ambitious appointment from BMG. They play three top 6 teams immediately after the break, two on the road and they risk being cast adrift.
Stuttgart have edged up to 8th and into touching distance of the top 4. However, they are in the DFB Pokal and Champions League and have made the last two finals of the former and I have spoken of the European competition being their priority and they have a lot of games to play. XGD suggests they should have scored and conceded more and they do play a very open style, but an xGA of just shy of 2.0 goal per game is not top 6-7-8 level. They are a good team and will want to sort that out and keep in top 6 contention, but they have eight games to play in the four weeks after the restart (other teams just five) and their two CL games are huge.
Union Berlin have a Bundesliga worse -14 goal difference ( -4 at this stage 12 months ago) and have scored just 7 under a new season head coach, who has never played or coached outside Switzerland previously. XGA places them 18th and xGA (17th), xGF (18th) and it is hard to take too many positives from expected stats. Mauro Lustrinelli is their 7th head coach in three years, supporters are already calling for his head and unless results improve very soon, number eight will be looking at a short term apartment rental in Berlin!
Leverkusen opened with a nightmare at newly promoted Elversberg where they were 3-0 down after 46 minutes , but they pulled two goals back and created 6 BC's in that ( 6-2) and they come out second only to Bayern across all statistical categories across nine games. However, after hauling themselves up to 4th, dealing with Thursday-Sunday games has been a problem and heavy defeats to Hoffenheim and Stuttgart and a home European loss to Marseille, all in their last five starts (11 goals conceded) have some alarm bells at least waiting to ring. I had a few issues with them and their head coach, who has little experience outside Catalonia, coming into this campaign and my own jury remains out.
RB Leipzig's lack of European football in 2025/26 was huge and helped them collect an additional 13 goals and 14 points, but they still sacked first season head coach Ole Werner at the end of the campaign (this was a decision apparently led by Jurgen Klopp) and replaced him with Martin Demichelis. He knows European football well enough ( as a player), but the 45yo Argentine has no senior experience of the Bundesliga since he played for Bayern (2010) and none as a coach in European football. In the summer I said: "I have some real doubts about this appointment and RBL could again struggle with a league and European schedule. " They have 18 points on board from a perfect 5/5 home games ( 23-2 goal difference) , but have lost three times on the road( -7 GD) and have suffered three heavy Champions League defeats (conceding 11 goals). They actually played some very nice football on their last CL outing, but that was at home and they still lost 2-3, to Manchester City, who have not boosted the form line subsequently. Leipzig almost always compete for top 4 spots, but they struggled in 24/25 (7th) when last in the CL and this season could still play out similarly. Their next two CL games are huge and almost must win if they are to progress and the schedule over the next month looks gruelling with those away day issues needing to be addressed. The RBL xGD is 1.26 goals worse than reality and they have a lot of questions left to answer full stop.
Hamburg lost their first three starts by a combined 12-0 (!) but have won 4 from six subsequently and they deserve great credit for that. However, they have only scored 10 goals and all expected numbers suggest that they are bottom 4.
In preseason I wrote ....Hamburg were the other big club who came up last season along with Köln and, as I said at the time, "the Bundesliga needs these two almost as much as the reverse is true." The pair were the 5th and 7th best supported clubs with average attendances of 50,000+. HSV survived, but xGA suggests they should have conceded 12 more goals and xP placed them joint second bottom with relegated Heidenheim. Given their standing in German football, size of the club and how long it took to return to the Bundesliga ( seven seasons in the second tier, finishing top 4 in each!) I was surprised how little they spent last summer and again they have only spent, as I type, what they have brought in. They have not flashed the cash, as I felt they might. Head coach Merlin Polzin is only 35yo and remains at the club after closing in on two years and first promotion and then survival clearly filled the brief. He is tactically fluid, likes to get the ball wide and into dangerous areas as quickly as possible and is supposedly a magician (see what I did there!) with set pieces which Hamburg spend a lot of time on, but which they underperformed with last season, so some room for improvement there. However, more to concern than thrill ATM and I did not expect to be writing that ahead of a second top flight season for this club. It seems that they have made a profit for 5 straight seasons and look to be keeping a tight hold on the purse strings!
They only have Bundesiga games to play which helps, but I still see them as bottom 6 and that is the level (and below) that they have performed at since promotion in 2025.
Last weekend I touched upon Köln having returned to their "both teams scoring ways" after a brief respite as, during the last international break, I had noted ....
Köln have goals in them for sure and are very good for betting purposes, as both teams have scored in their last 15 competitive starts, they are 19 without a clean sheet and, in their last seven games they have conceded first and in the opening half in six, but also scored themselves from multiple goals down (2+) in three and do not easily give up. Nine goals conceded is right on the number, they should have scored three more and all things considered, they are ideal betting material both pre-match and in-play.
I think they have a little more about them than 15th place suggests and all expected numbers place them 8th-10th which feels about right (they have only lost one game for xP) and I definitely expect them to score more going forward.
In the summer I wrote ....Massive step up for Hoffenheim last season with a 36 goal and 29 point ( almost double) increase over 24/25. However, they tired over the closing weeks and collected "only" 16 points from their final 10 starts, they played only two domestic cup games and had no European football to deal with and the likelihood is that they will have to play an additional 10-15 fixtures. Now here's a biggie, this is just their 5th time in Europe, in the last two they had to play Thursday-Sunday, just like this season, and they finished 11th (20/21) and 15th (24/25) in the Bundesliga. They have signed a handful of young players with potential and balanced the books with the sale of Bazoumana Toure ( 5 goals and 15 assists in 45 league appearances) to Newcastle United. The losses of Promel ( see Stuttgart notes). Tabakovic and Nsoki robs them of experience in a very young group that is returning to Europe. XP gave them 54 points last season, which is the level they played at over the final 10 games, add in the sales and European football and it feels like mid table awaits.
They are pretty much right where we expected, in 9th with 12 points and a 4-0-5 record. As that suggests, a very mixed bag and they have barely played the same back to back, with a 3-0 defeat of Leverkusen followed by a loss at a lower level team in the DFB-Pokal being fairly typical. There are a few positives in that they have had the joint third most attempts on goal and also come out 3rd for XGD, but a lot more games to play, even without the domestic cup and they have played at mid table level for much of 2026, they can beat most teams on a going day, but further inconsistency awaits
Augsburg stick to their tiny budget, they spend what they receive and are a very well run club who continually punch above their weight. After finishing between 11th-15th in each of the previous 10 seasons, they broke their duck and finally posted a top 10 finish (9th) last season, but 43 points was the same as 24/25 (12th) as was -16 goals and a return to 11th-15th place has long looked on the cards for this campaign. They are 14th currently, but are the joint third highest scorers and only Bayern have created more attempts on goal, that will always give them a chance against pretty much anyone and they were the only team to beat Bayern in Munich last season.
It is very difficult not to admire Freiburg and how they are run. Posting four top 7 finishes in five seasons (10th in the other) and a Europa League final last season and we are talking about a relatively small club, with a budget to match. They have stepped up this season, look a far more confident side now and one full of goals, with 39 in 16 competitive starts (2.4375 pg) and I am not worried about the Thursday-Sunday games, as they are used to that after doing so almost weekly last season and they are in the weaker competition (Europa Conference) this time around. I like that they recovered from back to back league defeats (one was unlucky, the other to Bayern) to win their last four across all competitions. They are 3rd currently and look the third best Bundesliga side on all evidence to date..........fingers crossed!
I will be a little shocked if Dortmund do not finish top 2 and I feel that coming from behind twice to earn a point away to Bayern last month was huge for self belief levels and they have lost just once in 17 competitive starts. However, they have a very tough month ahead, eight games and four of the first five are on the road, including a trip to the Emirates. Some of their numbers are more of the 5th-7th place variety, but they are a second half of the season team in any case. In 2024/25 they collected 32 points through the final 17 games, which was second only to Bayern and they won 9 of their final 12 starts, with a 34-13 goal difference. They stepped up on that last season with 37 points in the second half of the campaign. Niko Kovac remains as head coach and feels a decent fit to me , others disagree, but he had to stabilize them defensively last season, which he did, but got criticised for not playing such flowing football. But you have to run before you can walk and they conceded 17 goals fewer, collected 16 points more and only scored one goal fewer and I just do not understand the argument. This season they have exactly the same goal difference as at this stage 12 months ago, but with a point more and level with Bayern, not 7 points adrift. Kovac is still not popular with supporters (tough crowd!), but sometimes you should be careful what you wish for! No reason that Borussia will not again kick on after Christmas and they could push Bayern all the way.
I have some thoughts on Paderborn and Werder Bremen , the only two teams we have not looked at today, but want to leave those for next week when we preview the Week 10 Bundesliga fixtures.
Good luck!
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