Cherries a seaside treat!
Jan 19, 2026
Premier League : Brighton- Bournemouth
A pair of South Coast teams but the two are more than two hours apart by road and it is not exactly a fierce derby. Having said that, it is all Bournemouth have got in EPL terms (Brighton have that huge rivalry with Palace), so some extra spice with the fixture this evening. Both are sat in lower mid table, but each can lay claim to being the best team in the bottom half of the EPL and I would not argue with the case for either. They have very similar records this season.....
| 12 | Brighton & HA | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 31 | 28 | +3 | 29 | XWXL | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 11 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 17 | ||
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 28 | LOLX | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 13 | ||
| 14 | Tottenham Hotspur | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 29 | +2 | 27 | LLXO | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 15 | ||
| 15 | Bournemouth | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 26 | WLXL | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 29 | ||
| 16 | Leeds United | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 37 | -7 | 25 | WLXO | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 24 | ||
| 17 | Nottingham Forest | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 22 | OWLL | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 17 | ||
| 18 | West Ham United | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 24 | 44 | -20 | 17 | WLLX | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 25 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 19 | ||
| 19 | Burnley | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 23 | 42 | -19 | 14 | XXLL | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 27 | ||
| 20 | Wolves | 22 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 41 | -26 | 8 | OXWX | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 18 |
Brighton are three points ahead and are "stronger" defensively, but xP sees Bournemouth as four points superior and I agree with that and ahead of their 3-3 draw at Newcastle United in the FA Cup 9 days ago my notes included.....
Antoine Semenyo officially signed for Manchester City on Thursday and got a lot of credit in the football world for the way he conducted himself during these transfer negotiations, playing a big part in home games against Arsenal (2-3) and Tottenham (3-2) scoring a late, late winner in the midweek fixture. Prior to that the South Coast side had drawn 2-2 at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea and my notes for that included....
The Cherries are struggling and took an age to get going at Brentford last time out where they lost 4-1 ( no shame in that!). However, that scoreline was slightly flattering to the Bees and Bournemouth showed glimpses of that strong away form we know they have. They have scored 7 goals in their last three away starts and that could easily have been 10-11 and they are ideally set up to play on the road. This fixture finished 2-2 last season and something similar is firmly on the cards.
I "stumble across" a lot of these correct scores in my notes and they did indeed share four goals. Anyway, Bournemouth were the better team for long periods against both Chelsea and Arsenal and are a very good team IMO , xP places them 7th, two points behind United and that feels about right. There is not a team in the EPL I would sooner watch (apart from Brentford of course) they play with energy, very offensively and with a little joy, which is everything I want to see from a team.
Semenyo will be missed, but this is a very well run club and they always find a way to overcome these losses and I suspect he would have been rested today in any case.
I went with the Cherries to score twice at odds of 3.0 as my best and biggest bet of the weekend and they had scored the two desired goals shortly after the hour mark. They led at thatstage and looked sure to win, then conceded a 96th minute equaliser and lost on penalties after extra time. Just the latest in a fun packed but hugely frustrating campaign for all connected with the club, just look at those recent results .....
| 15-Dec-2025 | PL (16) | Manchester United | 4-4 | Bournemouth |
| 20-Dec-2025 | PL (17) | Bournemouth | 1-1 | Burnley |
| 27-Dec-2025 | PL (18) | Brentford | 4-1 | Bournemouth |
| 30-Dec-2025 | PL (19) | Chelsea | 2-2 | Bournemouth |
| 03-Jan-2026 | PL (20) | Bournemouth | 2-3 | Arsenal |
| 07-Jan-2026 | PL (21) | Bournemouth | 3-2 | Tottenham Hotspur |
| 10-Jan-2026 | FAC (r3) | Newcastle United | 3-3 | Bournemouth |
They were the better team for lengthy periods in six of those games and even the defeat at the Gtech (no shame in that as I am so fond of saying!) was flattering to the Bees in terms of margin of victory. However, this is where we are with Bournemouth, they scored 16 goals and won just once. Having said all that, forget their single win on the road, they are still a better away team and a joyous watch and I am not sure they can play any other way and long may that continue. Semenyo would be a loss to any EPL team, but Bournemouth lost three of four starting defenders (to a trio of Europe's biggest clubs) and their goalkeeper in the summer and in terms of expected numbers are still the same side, ok, in the interests of fairness, a little worse, but they were 3rd for xP last season, 8th-9th currently with a game in hand. They are used to dealing with these losses, are a top 8 team IMO and sometimes the table does lie!
I have not fallen out of love completely with Brighton, but, having written similarly to the above about them for many seasons and always referencing them along with Brentford as the two best run clubs in world football, I am a little disappointed by the Seagulls and this is a hangover from what I saw last season.
Back in August my lengthy preseason notes touched upon this .....
Last season, I have to be honest and say that, after heaping all that praise on them for many years, I was a little disappointed with Brighton. Not so much with where they finished, 8th is very good, although xP put them 4 points below that and they were also lower for BC's created. It had more to do with the style of play and they were MUCH more physical under first season head coach Fabian Hurzeler and even cynical at times and for me, that is not a good development and the quality of their play suffered as a result. The still only 32 yo German will have learned a lot, but will need to. It was not the same very pleasing on the eye team we have seen previously going forward and defensively they have regressed. The Seagulls have conceded 121 goals in the last two seasons , 2nd and 3rd most allowed across eight EPL campaigns, with a 0 goals difference total in those 76 games, that is mid table level and about what they looked to my eyes last season. They also gained the most points from losing positions , which shows great resilience, but you do not want to continually be digging yourself out of a hole.
I have seen them live twice this season and IMO, nothing much has changed and xGA suggests they should have conceded an additional 6-7 goals and per game, that is 3rd worst in the EPL. They are the worst for yellow cards and have committed the third most fouls.
The Cherries remain the top pressing team in the top flight and they match up well against the other teams at the head of this metric (like Brighton), scoring 2+ goals in 4 of 6 games versus other top 6 pressing teams and it should have been five, missing about half a dozen huge opportunities in a 1-0 win at Tottenham.
Bournemouth are the better team IMO and they are best suited to playing on the road and I don't care what the table says, that is not what the newsletter is all about, if it was just about the league table, football would be incredibly boring! Brighton do overcommit at times and there should be plenty of joy for the visitors in transition.
2 units Bournemouth to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.45 asian line.
Good luck!
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