Coming home ? ...............it might take some time .....
Jul 11, 2021
Euros 2020: Final: England- Italy
England are on home soil, in the national stadium and with great squad options, the best in these championships and that makes for a very composed, no rush mindset in games and if a game goes into the final 20 minutes all square, or even/especially extra time, they look very confident of getting the job done . Why not, with match winners like Foden, Rashford, Grealish and Sancho etc available from off the bench. Ahead of the semi final with Denmark I wrote ............
OK, despite two Brentford players in the Danish squad and the fact that they have served us well with wins over Russia/Wales/Czech Republic and by finishing runner up to Belgium in the group stage, I am obviously hoping for an England win, however, odds about the home victory look skinny and I have to look elsewhere for a "value " suggestion. We have the two teams who have given up the fewest (non penalty) xGA at these Championships and the Danes have a better xGF average through 5 games of 2.15, compared to England's 1.53. Denmark also have a recent (last October) 2-0 win in England, but both goals did come after the hosts were reduced to ten men. They had met in Copenhagen a month earlier, that played out 0-0 in a game of few chances and there's a chance that these two can again cancel each other out. Six of the 13 knockout stage games so far have gone to extra time and if there is value tonight, it is surely with the draw at circa 3.60 + .
That played out perfectly , 1-1 at the end of 90 minutes with England scoring the winner in extra time. XG for the game was a super impressive 2.73-0.25 in favour of the hosts and within that they were 1.76-0.03 in the additional 30 minutes and to my thinking there is no team in world football right now who would be better suited to extra time. That just makes for a very calm approach and I expect them to get the job done today, be that inside 90 or 120 minutes. England to win in extra time as they did in midweek is priced at circa 10.0-11.0 and is very tempting, I think I have to take something on that, but as good and together a unit the Italian defence looks, I do think the English have the pace to get in behind the veteran backline and, that unlike against Denmark, that the "home win" is much more fairly and competitively priced this evening, but I think to do that they will need to score twice to win, so that will be my 90 minute option and it also opens up the opportunity to win with both bets. 2-2 90minutes, England in extra time !
1.5 units England to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.80-3.0
1.25 unit England to win in extra time 10.0-11.0 general quote.......11.0 Pinnacle
Good luck !
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