End of an era at Brest?

football betting tips -
 
Ligue 1 2026/27:Stade Brestois 29: 15th -18th
 
12 months ago my notes on Brest read a lot like this ....
 
Brest were promoted in 2018-19 and were expected to struggle given their low budget and small crowds. They have actually finished 14-17-11-14-3-9, that third place was the highest in their history and earned a Champions League spot, their first ever European campaign. It is a true Cinderella story and I am not sure what is more remarkable, that they finished third, or 9th last season when they had CL football and games with some real giants of the game to deal with and all with a still tiny budget. Brest know they are living the dream and that they will wake up soon and have continued to cut their cloth accordingly, their budget remains at 45m€ which is 5th smallest, despite earning 50m€ from their CL adventure. They have the smallest squad in Ligue 1 by a country mile as I type and they have not conducted any business of note and head coach Eric Roy will have to do some loan or freebie trading in the next week or two. Expected numbers give further cause for concern, xP gives them 40 points (13th) and xGA suggests they should have conceded an additional 7 goals (14th).  Bottom six is possible and even a relegation campaign and this season will have a bit of a "after the Lord Mayor's" show vibe.
 
They did not finish bottom six, but only by one place and xP also suggests that 12th was correct.
 
During the season I updated with .....
 
They had the smallest squad in Ligue 1 by a country mile in mid August, which was padded out by 2 free transfers, 5 loanees and three players who cost a total of 6m€. Head coach  Eric Roy and his DOF Gregory Lorenzi, know how to build a team from very little. I am amazed that Lorenzi has not been poached by a bigger club, at just 41yo he has been at Brest almost a decade and has overseen all their success. Under Roy, Brest have collected 1.55 points pg from over 150 Ligue 1 starts which would normally earn a club 6th-11th place ( last five seasons) and is a ridiculously good record for a club of their size, who have to do a rebuild every season. But maybe it is Lorenzi whom clubs higher up the food chain should be looking at
 
Now some VERY sad new Roy passed away in June, after battling pancreatic cancer bravely for more than three years and he is a huge loss to the club, but more so to friends and family. Lorenzi left the club in May ( see Marseille). 
 
I cannot think of two bigger losses at any club (Ligue 1 or elsewhere) and Brest have an inexperienced head coach to try and pick up the reins.....I will be a little surprised if they were to survive.
 
 
Good luck!
 
 

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