EPL......what has happened since the restart ?
Jan 17, 2023
Part 2 of today's look back at the daily newsletter notes.
On Boxing Day, ahead of the Premier League restart, I ran some last six game numbers and put up notes on seven teams all of which you can view below.
I have used those notes as a basis to preview 22 Premier League games over the subsequent three weeks, putting up 26 betting suggestions. Stakes were 49.25 units, returns 76.79 for a ROI of +55.92% and shows what can be achieved when you ally such data to what you can see with your own eyes! Or mine!
Premier League:
Arsenal 12.1 / 4.8, 17-5, 62-31, 14.3
Man City 10.0 / 9.1, 15-14, 75-32, 10.7
Newcastle 10.5 / 5.2, 14-6, 55-34, 10.8
Tottenham 12.3 / 7.5 , 18-12, 70-46, 10.0
Man Utd 9.2 / 6.7, 16-8, 51-34, 8.7
Liverpool 14.2 / 11.5 , 23-20,
Brighton 10.6 / 7.6, 13-10, 64-38, 11.7
Chelsea 5.1 / 11.3, 7-16, 31-59, 6.3
Fulham 12.5 / 11.4, 14-20, 65-57, 10.8
Brentford 10.9/10.8, 18-13, 41
C Palace 5.9 / 6.6 , 5-10, 36-40, 17.2
Villa 6.7 / 13.7, 12-18, 45-51, 7.0
Leicester 7.1 / 6.9 , 10-5, 43-54 , 13.5
Bournemouth 8.4 / 11.3, 12-9, 47-69, 13.3
Leeds 11.6 / 10.5, 16-19, 57-54 , 7.8
West Ham 9.4 / 8.1 , 9-11, 54-47, 11.3
Everton 5.5 / 12.5 , 9-11, 37-75, 9.0
Forest 7.6 / 11.5, 10-16, 33-66, 9.2
Southampton 6.6 / 9.9, 11-14, 45-55, 8.5
Wolves 7.1 / 9.2, 7-11, 48-50, 10.0
Four columns, they are , in order, xG, BC's, ITB attempts, average (current) league position of the opponent faced. Good numbers in relation to league placing are highlighted in blue type, poor numbers in red.
I am not so bothered about the quality of opposition, but good stats versus good teams do have extra value of course and the reverse for bad numbers against a weaker level of opposition.
Lots for us to feast on over Christmas!
There are a few things to give cause for concern in the Manchester City numbers and they have had that huge number of players away at the World Cup too. Their stats are a little skewed by the statistical tonking they got from Brentford at the Etihad ahead of the break, it might only have been 2-1 to the mighty Bees, but they were 6-1 for BC's (it was away to City for goodness sake!) and a net +1.5 xGD and the West London side might easily have scored 4+ goals. The Bees ITB numbers are not great though and they have some issues with injury and other matters which we can discuss another day.
The Liverpool stats are mad and right across the board, creating more than anyone, but conceding chances like a bottom 2-3 side, with over 4.0 xG's , 7 BC's and 20 ITB attempts per game!
Chelsea have played a good level of opposition, but that is no explanation for their beyond awful stats, they are a net -6.2 xG, -9 BC's (worst in EPL), -28 ITB (creating EPL fewest!). XP for the season places them 12th and right now (or up to the break) they are not even playing close to that level.
Leeds United are still giving up a lot of chances, 17 BC's and 2.25 xGA per game across their last four starts.
Crystal Palace have collected 10 points from those six games, but hard to see how given how little they are creating, which is pretty much EPL low numbers and that sequence also includes a 3-0 loss to Everton and looking at the Toffees stats and standing, that all makes dismal reading and the Eagles look vulnerable.
XP suggests that West Ham United are 7th, which is where they finished last season and last six numbers are ok as a whole, but a little caution as last three starts have seen them create just 1 BC total and 0.8 xGF per game.
Everton have a net -7.0 xGD and are a net -38 ITB , since October last year they are 10-10-27 and 0.85 pts pg will get you relegated every season (it equates to 32 points for 38 games and the lowest ever for a team who survived is 34) and they have played at that level for 14 months and no signs that things are heading in the other direction, in fact, they might be getting worse!
Of course, all teams have had time to put things right , or to lose momentum they might have generated and we have never had a mid season break of any length before and that is the great unknown. Because of that I would be very wary of betting anyone at low odds until things have settled down, but it does make things very interesting.
Good luck!
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