Goals finally on the rise in Brazil........
Aug 12, 2025
Brazil Serie A:
Last Saturday I wrote .......
Serie A is a low scoring league and we normally expect a shade under 2.45 goals on average, but it is currently running at 2.25 and that can be partly explained I feel by the stop/start nature of play this year due to the international breaks and FIFA Club World Cup. We should see an increase now and games will have to produce at the rate of 2.58 , a third of a goal increase, to come in at circa 2.44. Leagues do tend to revert to the mean , so it is not wrong for us to expect an upturn. As I type on Friday morning, nine of this weekend's ten games are priced at odds of 2.24- 2.58 to go "over" 2.5 goals and the same nine offer 1.95+ (up to 2.29 ) for both teams to score and I am sure that there is some value in there somewhere.
Yesterday I updated with ....The 10 games played last weekend averaged 2.6 goals with BTS in seven and the five yesterday (Saturday) saw an average of 4.0 with BTS in three.
There should be goals in today's four games and I will suggest Palmeiras-Ceara and Vasco da Gama- Atletico Mineiro. The last two named both featured last week, Vasco losing 3-2 at Mirassol and Atletico beating Bragantino 2-1 and notes on those games are reproduced at the foot of this email. H2h wise 11 of the last 14 meetings have seen both teams score . Vasco are 7 league games without a clean sheet (BTS in 5) and Atletico have gone four without a clean sheet (BTS in 3). Palmeiras need to get back on track, after drawing 2-2 at home to struggling Vitoria last time out in the league with that game sandwiched in between two defeats to Corinthians (their biggest rival) in the Copa do Brasil. The hosts won the title in 2022 and 2023, were second last season and currently sit third, seven points back, but with two games in hand. They have conceded in 7 of 8 starts. Ceara's form had nosedived until their last two starts which saw them win 2-1 away to Cruzeiro who currently sit second and draw 1-1 with league leaders Flamengo and they can complete the BTS "treble" with the top 3 teams today.
That played out perfectly with BTS in each and also in the Cruzeiro-Santos game.
Today we have Juventude -Corinthians and again, it feels like goals have been underestimated and valued.
Juventude were promoted in 2020, finished 16th the next season with 11 wins, 9 at home, relegated the following season. They were promoted again in 2023 and finished 15th last season, with 11 wins , 8 coming here in Caxias do Sul. So they know all too well what they and any minor club needs to do to survive in this most brutal of leagues, where teams play a relentless schedule, and that is to make the very most of home advantage. The hosts sit 19th this morning 7 points from safety but with a game or two in hand on most teams.
Corinthians are not great travellers and ahead of a trip up to the NE of the country to play Ceará last month I touched upon that ....
Corinthians are coming off a 2-1 home defeat to Bragantino where they created 2.2 xG and won most statistical categories and that seems fairly typical, as not a lot of luck has fallen their way. They are 0-3-3 on the road too, with a 3-10 goal difference which gives cause for concern and they had very similar issues last season, opening 1-3-11 in away games (7-24 GD), before winning their last four on the road. It is a tough schedule for the visitors, they played a "derby" game on Sunday, could only do light prep work on Monday, will be training today and then making the flight to Fortaleza, where it will be 13-14 degrees hotter in the evening/overnight , which will involve a 6-7 hour transit time.
They actually won that, but lost at Sao Paulo just three days later in their next away start which was hardly surprising, given the exertions of such a long trip and quick turnaround. But in two road games subsequently they have drawn 1-1 at champions Botafogo and won 2-0 at Palmeiras and I spoke above about how good they are and have been. So it does feel like Corinthians have turned a corner and whilst their need is not so great as Juventude's , a win today would take them up four places and into the Copa Libertadores "discussion". Last five h2h meetings have seen BTS in four, including in the three most recent, all played in 2024 .
2 units both teams to score @ 2.08 asian line.
Good luck!
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