NFL and Super Bowl .....
Feb 07, 2026
NFL: (as sent Tuesday)
The NFL always provides talking points and whilst the regular season only finished four weeks ago, as I write, eight head coaches and nine offensive/defensive coordinators find themselves either sacked or having "parted ways" with their teams. Others have left to take up another/better job. There were a few, if not exactly shocks, then fairly surprising decisions amongst those dismissed. However, at the end of the day, it always comes down to how those individuals have performed in the most recent season or two and especially, for the more ambitious franchises, in the playoffs.
Mike Tomlin "stepped down" after 19 years with the Steelers, he has never had a losing season, but lost his last SEVEN playoff games. John Harbaugh with 193 wins (12th all time) was sacked after 18 seasons with the Ravens. They were the two longest tenured head coaches in the NFL. Sean McDermott was dismissed after 9 seasons with the Bills, he was 98-50 in regular season games, but 8-8 in the postseason. I would have expected, under the circumstances, for Buffalo to go with a completely new broom to clean house but, after a sx day search and nine interviews, they went with existing offensive coordinator Joe Brady who, apparently, escaped blame for the playoff results.
Pittsburgh wanted to stick with an experienced hand and appointed Mike McCarthy who has 18 years in the NFL as head coach on his CV, with the Packers (13) and Cowboys (5) and a 185-123-2 record including postseason games, he is a Pittsburgh native which does him no harm at all in those parts! The Ravens went with 42yo Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, keeping the Harbaugh connection, as he has worked under John's younger brother Jim, for the last four years.
John Harbaugh was only out of work for 14 days and spent most of that considering which one of six head coaching roles he fancied, it seems he could have walked into any. Eventually he opted for the New York Giants, with a five year contract which will almost certainly make him the highest paid head coach in the NFL and a deal where he has to report only to owner John Mara, with GM, Joe Schoen having no authority over Harbaugh.
All of this still took a back seat to the news, and this was a SHOCK, that, after six Super Bowl titles as head coach of the Patriots, two as defensive coordinator of the Giants, also winning nine Conference championships and 17 divisional titles, putting him second on the all time win list (most in the playoffs), that Bill Belichick was passed over and not inducted into this year's Pro Football Hall of Fame class. I bet the HOF committee drew lots to decide who was going to call and tell him the news, as it didn't go down well and there has been a heck of a stink over this, with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Patrick Mahomes, LeBron James, Jimmy Johnson and definitely last and most definitely least, Donald Trump, all speaking out against the snub. Apparently he came up a vote short, needing 40 of the 50 available and received 39, with 11 thinking him undeserving (or others more so), at least at this stage. There is no smoke without fire as the saying goes and you do not get " the bully in the hoodie" nickname without upsetting a few people and this is not the first instance of what might be some payback. When he left the Patriots, there were somewhere between 7-11 head coaching vacancies, only the Falcons invited the "GOAT" to interview and they went in a different direction. "Be careful who you upset on the way up!"
Super Bowl LX: Seattle Seahawks- New England Patriots
Venue is Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California, home of the 49ers and with regard to that, we can start by saying advantage to the Seahawks as, not only are they a West Coast team, but they play in this stadium every year, most recently on January 3rd when they won and were elite defensively. The Patriots do not venture this far too often, this is only their second game on the WC since 2021 and they lost the previous one very heavily in this stadium.
The Patriots have a storied Super Bowl history, but like the Jaguars are another team who have turned things around big time this season. After going 4-13 in both 2023 and 2024 they have gone 17-3 (inc playoffs) this year and have done so under legendary former Pats player Mike Vrabel in his first season as head coach and with a second year GM and 23 yo quarterback in Drake Maye, it is an amazing turnaround and story, one which might have a little way to go yet!
Maye was drafted in 2024 and thrown in at the deep end last season, but he has thrived this year and has long been touted in many quarters as the real deal and with genuine superstar potential. I took a while to be won over, but was more convinced when, earlier this season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles, who is widely regarded as one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL and who had two weeks to work on a game plan , was left shaking his head at at least four completions that Maye made. It cannot be denied that New England have had an easy schedule, but they are 16-1 since Week 3 (led 21-0 in their only loss in that sequence, pretty much playing their only poor half in 14 regular season games), won in Buffalo and Baltimore and scored 42 against the Panthers ( who only give up more than 28 twice all season). They have only given up 26 points in three playoff games, however, and that "however" is always waiting, they have allowed QB Maye to be sacked 15 times, five in each game and I am sorry, but Super Bowl champions do not give their leader so little protection. The last six champions have played 16 games enroute to the Super Bowl and have allowed 28 sacks total, that is 1.75 per game and more than 3 just once, not three games in a row! That is such a big concern that I cannot get beyond it and when things do not change, the numbers ALWAYS catch up with you in the end!
Talking of "numbers", I have been highlighting those of the Seahawks for many weeks and in early November my notes touched upon how elite they actually were, putting them in a class of the best we have ever seen in the NFL !
It is the Seahawks I want to discuss today, because their numbers have been ridiculously good and one in particular suggests that they could be one of the best NFL teams of the last 50 years as mad, crazy, left field as that sounds!
That is DVOA, just quickly as we have covered it before, that stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. It calculates a team's success based on down and distance of each play then compares it to the league average. Despite the name, it is a comprehensive metric which compares offense, special teams and not just defense. "If you don't know, now you know".
Through eight games, only three teams in history since records started in 1978 have a better DVOA than the Seahawks, they were the ....
2007 Patriots who went to the Super Bowl with an 18-0 record and despite losing in one of the biggest upsets ever to the Giants, are regarded by many as the GOAT.
The 1991 Washington Super Bowl winners.
The 1985 Chicago Bears who are regarded as one of, if not the best defensive units of all time, who also won the whole show.
That trio only lost three regular season games between them and the Seahawks numbers come up a hair's breadth short of the Bears.
Under second season 38yo head coach Michael Macdonald , the Seahawks are 17-9, within which they are 6-8 at home and a scarcely believable 11-1 on the road, winning the last 10 "away" starts. Those 10 wins have come by a combined 258-161, so a 9.7 point average and four were by 12+ points. Is that a fluke ? Or is the blip with those home games ? The numbers are certainly suggesting it could be the latter and their last three defeats at Lumen Field have come by a combined 10 points, two of which they dominated statistically and in all three they fell out of the blocks. That is /was a concern, but they are a combined 42-0 through the opening quarter in their last two starts and look to have resolved those "issues".
In the last of those 23 yo WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba became the first receiver to hit 1,000 yards this season. His 1,041 is 210 more than the second best Ja@Marr Chase who has superstar status and a further 56 ahead of Puka Nacua who is the Rams top receiver. His numbers are setting him up to compete with the greatest receivers in history and he is currently on track to set a new record in yards per team pass attempt, which have been recorded since the Beach Boys released Pet Sounds, which was worthy of mention as we are in LA today! Come on, Biggie Smalls, Michael Macdonald and the Beach Boys in one sports betting preview is pretty good going!
What I really like is that Seattle are not content for JSN to carry the full receiving workload and on deadline day gave up two draft picks for next year to sign Saints WR Rashid Shadeed. The 27 yo was also wanted by the Steelers, but wanted to come to Seattle where he already knew offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. Shadeed has 500 yards receiving in a 1-8 team which is noteworthy and so are his five receptions at an average of 13.6 in his final start for them against, yest, you guessed it, the Rams! He suited up for the Seahawks last week and got a reception on his only target, but will have had a full week with the team now and he is going to be a huge outlet and also make it harder to cover Smith-Njigba.
Seattle showed further ambition in opting to keep two players that were wanted elsewhere and who they were expected to trade and it seems clear to me that they have a "now" and not in the future approach.
The Seahawks don't have to win the Super Bowl this season, they look the complete team with no (real) weaknesses and it is difficult to see falling apart next year, but they put a lot of eggs into this 2025-26 basket and the NFC West is such a tough division that it is very difficult to even win that back to back. It is the best division in the NFL ( NFC West teams have played in 8 of the last 15 Super Bowls) , Seattle finished 14-3, but the Rams and 49ers both posted 12 wins and that would have won four of the other seven divisions. Many NFL watchers long considered the Rams the most complete team in the league and the Niners were badly beat up and injured hit for most of the season, yet still won 12 games, to illustrate how competitive this section is. So, for the Seahawks, it is not now or never, but certainly better now and they have put everything in place to get here.
Ahead of their Championship game ( a third meeting of the season with the Rams ) I wrote .....I want to start by saying that I am sticking with the Seahawks and that shouldn't really surprise anyone. They hosted the Rams just over five weeks ago and it was an historic game. Seattle won 38-37 in overtime, coming from 30-14 down with eight minutes to play! Even that doesn't tell the full story as the Seahawks became the first team to win in OT after their opponent scored a touchdown first and also the first to win in OT with a successful two point conversion! We could talk about that game all day but Seattle won for one reason alone, their utter refusal to accept defeat, or to think for one second that any situation no matter how bad, could not be overcome! That is not a team you want to readily oppose.
We can return to those DVOA numbers and including playoff games, the Seahawks come in as the 5th best NFL team since records started in 1978. Think about that for a moment and all the great teams you have seen in the last 47 years. The Patriots do not even come in the top 5 for this season( they are ranked 7th)!
Sorry to bang on about this but the Patriots have not played well offensively in the postseason producing their lowest "success rates" of the season. That metric judges every play as successful or not and by that criteria the Patriots are currently operating at below NFL average level. Drake Maye has been dealing with a shoulder injury and whilst he said today that it was "fine", he would say that wouldn't he (?) and Maye missed two days of practice last week. Some reporters have ventured that any issue will be better in the "warmer weather" in Santa Clara, but the forecast is for 12-13 degrees and fairly constant rain on Sunday and that doesn't help joint issues. When Barometric pressure drops, tissues around the joints can expand and cause pain in sensitive nerves.
What to expect in a Super Bowl
Last ten have seen eight produce 40+ points, five with 51+ points and four with 62+ points. Six were decided by more than a standard touchdown, so by 8+ points and five by double digits scores. Plenty of swings in those games and only four of the last nine were won by the team scoring first.
Final Analysis
It must be pretty obvious by now that I am sticking with the Seahawks and I am going to be brave and go with the touchdown handicap line and they will cover that if they are truly of that elite level some numbers say that they are and I have seen no weaknesses in their last three starts and plenty with the Pats.
3 units Seattle Seahawks -7 points @ 2.41 Pinnacle/Vegas Line.
Having said all that, if the Maye shoulder is fine, the Pats rank first in explosive plays (runs of 10+ yards and passes of 16+) and the QB is first on attempts of 20+ yards downfield and the Rams exploited this in their last two meetings with Seattle and those plays will have been watched in great detail by the New England coaching staff. LA put up an insane 1,060 yards of offense across those games, but don't forget, they still lost both!
Seahawks QB Sam Darnold is no slouch downfield either and he is ranked second for those 20+ yard downfield passes and these could feature for both/either QB if they are chasing and this is traditionally a game with big swings.
The game total is set around the 46/47 point line, but has "break out" possibilities and as it always does, odds are the deciding factor and the quotes for "over" 51.5 points @ 2.84 and "over" 58.5 @ 4.68 appeal given the Super Bowl history and explosive potential of both quarterbacks.
We have landed a whole host of really big odds bets in recent Super Bowls so I will go for another whilst I am feeling brave .....
1.5 units "over" 58.5 points @ 4.68 Pinnacle/Vegas Line.
Good luck!
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