NFL sample post: New England Patriots @ LA Rams
Dec 11, 2020
NFL: New England Patriots @ LA Rams
The Rams are coming off a 38-28 win in Arizona over the Cardinals on Sunday .............. Big divisional game but one where the Rams hold all the cards and a series in which they have totally dominated under head coach Sean McVay. They have won the last 6 h2h games and have, incredibly, scored between 31-34 points in each. They have also won five straight in Arizona and by increasingly wide margins 2/4/16/25/27 points. I like the Cards and their star quarterback, but they are a work in progress and are vulnerable on both sides of the ball down the middle of the field, it will be addressed but not this season and Arizona also has a habit of finding a way to make things difficult for themselves and lose games they should win. LA have won 7/8 next time out after a loss and each win was by 7+ points and they will be smarting after that loss to SF last week, they need to win today to stay in touch with the Seahawks who are otherwise likely to take a two game advantage with time and games running out.
That win took them to 8-4 and first place in the NFC West above the Seahawks by virtue of a h2h win a few weeks back, but, with the two still to meet in Seattle, everything is still up for grabs and LA will want to win the two interim games. In Arizona the Rams were a net +12 for first downs, +231 for yards (posting double that of the Cards, who are an offensive team) and had the ball for 38:53 which is about the most possession you will see for anyone team in the NFL and unlike football, that is a very important stat. Jared Goff finally looked like a real quarterback again and it felt like an (almost) complete performance.
The Patriots have won their last two games and are on 6-6 for the year, the first was a 20-17 win over Arizona in Foxborough, so we have a direct comparison. The Pats needed a field goal as time expired to win, New England were a net -7 first downs, -119 yards and had the ball for 25:52 ,compare those numbers to the Rams .
Last weekend the Patriots destroyed the LA Chargers 45-0 here in this very stadium and that has got everyone very excited, "the Pats are back" and so on and it does keep postseason hopes alive, but they would need to win out and even 10-6 might not be good enough as there are 7 teams (playoff number) with between 8-11 wins already and a further two with 7. The Chargers are in freefall, so as good as that win looks score wise and the result will give the Patriots confidence, I prefer to look at New England's overall record and those respective numbers against the Cards and remember, in those games the Pats were at home and the Rams on the road.
New England are 2-4 on the road and their two wins came versus teams who are a combined 3-21 , Quarterback Cam Newton is always good on the ground and he has 11 rushing touchdowns, but there is no doubt that his passing has hindered the Patriots and they are 2-4 when he throws the ball more than 20 times , which all teams should be doing and it makes for a one dimensional offensive. Which is fine and dandy against a team like the Chargers but will be difficult against the Rams or to stick with in any game in which they are trailing. Last weekend his team won by 45 points and Newton had 69 yards passing, that combination is "impossible" , if you saw the scoreline and were asked to guess the passing yardage without knowing the teams, any "expert" would probably laugh if you said sub 300 ! The Pats also like to run the ball up the middle and are not only "predictable" about whether to run or pass, but where they are going to run and that should never work against elite opposition.
New England have stayed out West of course which means no travel between games , but they have been in the LA area for the best part of the week and I am not sure staying in a hotel, in a bubble with 100 guys, with no family , no alcohol and not much happening (you cannot see head coach Bill Belichick being anything less than a strict disciplinarian) is my idea of fun !
2.75 units LA Rams -6.5 points 2.22 Pinnacle/ Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro.
Good luck !
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