Premier League betting tip: Wolverhampton Wanderers- West Ham United
Apr 05, 2021
Premier League: Wolverhampton Wanderers- West Ham United
Wolves pre Christmas game was a trip to Turf Moor to face a struggling Burnley team and my notes included ...........
Wolves feel if not fully in transition, a team that has lost so much more than two players with the transfer of Diogo Jota and frightening injury to Raul Jimenez and it feels like a piece of the heart of the team has been ripped out. The duo contributed 24 goals and 7 assists last season, Matt Doherty who has also left had 4 of each too and that is a lot of goal threat they have lost. All five non defensive players in the last start were aged 25 or less, the front two 18 and 20 and as good as they are, or will be, that is not a lot of experience to call upon when things are not going well. Head coach Nuno Espirito Santo has been tinkering with formation changes and yes, I have changed my mind, they do feel a little in transition. One thing that has not really changed is Wolves habit of falling out of the blocks and they have been leading at the break in just 10 of 51 starts since the start of the 2019-20 season, trailing in 21 and a good chance today that Burnley can get a toehold in this game early doors.
They trailed at half time and lost that day and since writing the notes above, Wolves have gone 3-6-7 scoring less than a goal per game. To update those stats since the start of last season, they have led at half time in 13/67 starts and trailed in 26 games, twice as many.
David Moyes (pictured) has done a terrific job at West Ham, his team can move back up to 4th win the win this evening and that is a MASSIVE incentive, ahead of a home game with Leeds United last month I spoke about how he had his team flying out of the blocks, at least in games in London ............
West Ham are in a very unusual and unexpected position, but look to be so on merit, have a pretty deep and talented squad and no real pressure on themselves. Leeds have made an awful lot of friends with their joyful, gun-ho play and they both score and concede a lot of goals with very few draws, they are made for television ! Their away record kind of says it all, they are 6-0-7 , conceding 27 goals, which is the most pg in the EPL and 17 of those (63%) have come before the break, next "worst" defensive record is 13 first half away goals and from a game more ! In all games, home and away, they have conceded the most top flight away goals, including a whopping 19 in the opening 30 minutes . They will be hoping that influential Kalvin Phillips will be fit to return this evening after missing the last four games (three defeats) but it will be a last minute decision.
The Hammers come out strong at home and have a 5-1 home goal difference in the first 30 minutes to mirror when Leeds are most vulnerable and are the #2 ranked home team in the EPL with only champions elect Manchester City better and within that a very strong 7-4-2 as host before the break.
Leeds have lost on all four trips to London this season and by a combined 14-4 (who loses 4-1 at Selhurst Park !) , each loss coming by at least two goals and they conceded 9 in the first half.
The Leeds capital away day blues to continue .........WHU to win in 90 minutes and in first half betting all seems too big and for the truly adventurous amongst you, the Hammers -1.5 goal in FH betting was a winner against Arsenal, Palace and Tottenham and is massively priced . I will probably get involved in those big odds.
The brave amongst us were well rewarded with the Hammers leading 2-0 at half time and that huge odds bet landed with a degree of comfort.
The more eagle eyed amongst you will note that WHU are on the road tonight (!),where they are most vulnerable early conceding over 47% of all away goals in the opening 30 minutes , but rarely losing a first half (10 draws) and coming on strong after the break, when they have won six second halves. This feels a decent match up given that when they concede on the road is when Wolves put so little pressure on the opposition and the Hammers have very good away numbers after the first third of the game.
West Ham are 13-4-0 in their last 17 starts against non BIG 6 opposition !
2 units West Ham -0.25 ball 2.27 asian line and if you wanted to hold off and back this as we approach the 30 minute mark, I would not argue against that and as I am (too) fond of saying, no one ever backed a loser by waiting for better odds !
Good luck !
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