Serie A : updated xP and ITB tables ahead of this weekend's games .............

football betting tips -

 

I have changed the final column so that it covers the last five games which are all since lockdown, some teams have played six times since the restart, but only the last five starts are counted to make them easier to compare.

Pd = games played.

Pts = points

GD = goal difference

XP=  expected points

XGD = expected goal difference

ITB = inside the box net numbers for the season

L5 = inside the box totals (created-conceded) for the last 5 games ( all post restart).

The first three columns are "real" in terms of points won and goals scored/conceded, but league tables do sometimes "lie" even after 30+ games and the last four columns are more interesting as they show performance levels and who has been over/underachieving in front of goal at both ends of the pitch.

The numbers which are shown in blue type indicate teams who are playing above the level of their current league position, those in red for teams who have outperformed their stats and we would normally expect results for the former to improve and the latter to fall away. Double or treble (or more) blue or red numbers are especially noteworthy.

I will finish with my normal observation that : I like expected goals/points, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because they are more numeric and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.

 

Stay safe and good luck !

 

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