2025				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		Palmeiras	32	21	5	6	58	28	+30	68	LWWO	17	12	3	2	35	11	15	9	2	4	23	17
	2		Flamengo	32	20	8	4	64	20	+44	68	WXWL	17	12	5	0	42	8	15	8	3	4	22	12
	3		Cruzeiro	33	18	10	5	46	22	+24	64	OWWO	17	12	3	2	30	12	16	6	7	3	16	10
	4		Mirassol	33	16	11	6	54	33	+21	59	WLOW	17	11	6	0	36	14	16	5	5	6	18	19
	5		Bahia	33	15	8	10	44	40	+4	53	XLWL	16	12	3	1	28	11	17	3	5	9	16	29
	6		Botafogo	33	14	10	9	44	28	+16	52	OWOX	16	8	5	3	29	18	17	6	5	6	15	10
	7		Fluminense	33	15	6	12	38	37	+1	51	OWLW	16	12	1	3	21	10	17	3	5	9	17	27
	8		São Paulo	33	12	9	12	37	36	+1	45	LXWW	17	8	4	5	22	16	16	4	5	7	15	20
	9		Atlético-MG	33	11	11	11	37	37	+0	44	XWWO	16	8	7	1	24	14	17	3	4	10	13	23
	10		Vasco da Gama	33	12	6	15	50	49	+1	42	LLLW	17	7	4	6	26	23	16	5	2	9	24	26
	11		Red Bull Bragantino	33	12	6	15	38	50	-12	42	WWLL	16	7	4	5	21	23	17	5	2	10	17	27
	12		Ceará	33	11	9	13	31	30	+1	42	WXWL	16	7	4	5	17	12	17	4	5	8	14	18
	13		Corinthians	33	11	9	13	35	38	-3	42	LLWW	16	7	4	5	21	14	17	4	5	8	14	24
	14		Grêmio	33	10	10	13	35	43	-8	40	XLLW	16	7	5	4	18	13	17	3	5	9	17	30
	15		Internacional	33	9	10	14	37	46	-9	37	XLOL	17	7	5	5	23	18	16	2	5	9	14	28
	16		Vitória	33	8	11	14	29	47	-18	35	OWLL	17	7	6	4	18	15	16	1	5	10	11	32
	17		Santos	32	8	9	15	33	48	-15	33	LLXX	15	5	5	5	16	18	17	3	4	10	17	30
	18		Juventude	33	9	5	19	29	59	-30	32	WWLL	16	6	3	7	17	19	17	3	2	12	12	40
	19		Fortaleza	33	7	10	16	34	51	-17	31	XXXX	17	6	3	8	20	22	16	1	7	8	14	29
	20		Sport Recife	32	2	11	19	24	55	-31	17	LLLL	16	1	7	8	15	27	16	1	4	11	9	28

Saturday, 15 November 2025
13	Santos		-	Palmeiras
12	Sport Recife		-	Flamengo
Sunday, 16 November 2025
37	Red Bull Bragantino		-	Atlético-MG

Just three games this weekend, with the two league leaders playing on the road against bottom four opposition.  Both visitors have good and deep squads, but are VERY hard hit by international call ups. Flamengo are without six players, five of whom played some part in their last game, four starting . Palmeiras are missing seven, all of whom played the last game, six starting, one is only involved in a midweek game for his national team so might be available, but he will still be handicapped by the travel and quick turnaround.

 

I guess things are easier for Fla as they play Sport who have been booked for a return to the second tier for months, but it is a long way up to Recife ( 4,600km round trip) and the hosts can play without fear. Sport have lost five in a row, four by 2+ goals, but did score in four of those and in 6 of their last 9 starts. Fla are coming off a hard fought 3-2 home win over Santos, who now host Palmeiras. They will have actually played the top 2 three weeks running as before that they lost 2-0 to Palmeiras in São Paulo, this weekend's game being a rearranged fixture.  Their need is great of course and Palmeiras have conceded 10 goals in their last five away starts, winning "just" two.

 

Hanging over both Palmeiras and Flamengo like the Sword of Damocles is their meeting in the Copa Libertadores final, which will be held in Lima, Peru in two weeks time. BTW, Lima is the second most populous city in South America..... fun fact of the day! That leaves both clubs in a tough situation, as neither wants to come out in such a fantastic season without a trophy, so they will be desperate to win today to keep double options open/alive, but are so shorthanded it will be tough and each has played an enormous amount of fixtures this year.

 

In addition to the international call ups, Fla are missing four senior players through injury. Those remaining got a rare two days off this week (their last days off for the season), returned to training on Thursday, with a session in the morning and then flying directly to Recife where they arrived two days before kick off. They should still win, odds of circa 1.30 do feel skinny, although I suppose if this was a cup game and Fla had opted to rest 8-9 players they would still be odds on and Sport are as bad as any team we have seen in Serie A since Chapecoense in 2021 results wise. However, their xG of 1.37 is much better than the reality of 0.75 (goals scored) and Fla should have conceded 0.42 goals more and it is defensively that they are hardest hit today. 

 

That is also true of Palmeiras and even at or close to full strength they have conceded in 6 of 10 starts. Santos have equal motivation, are playing a local rival (two stadia are 80km apart) and scored twice at Fla last time out and created 2.35 xGF and xP places them midtable and nine points better off. Head coach Juam Vojvoda had huge success with Fortaleza previously and looks to be getting a better tune out of Santos after 12 games in charge and he has a solid record against Palmeiras (4-3-5, scoring 2+ goals in 3 of the last 5) and that must compare very favourably to most small teams against a giant of Brazilian football. If any further motivation were required Palmeiras are on of Santos' two main rivals and they would much prefer Flamengo to win the title.

 

 

 

RBB and Atletico are still looking to claim a Copa Libertadores spot but if that again goes to top 8, then it looks like only place is still up for grabs, so neither can really afford to do anything but play for maximum points. I have discussed Bragantino's loss of form previously, they collected 26 points from their first 13 games and only 16 from 20 subsequently, a 1.2 points pg drop off across more than half a season. CAM are unbeaten in five and have scored 10 in their last three, which is as many as RBB have managed in ten outings. As good as that sounds, the visitors have conceded 5 in their last two starts and both came versus bottom 3 opposition. Given that and the need of both and the h2h record, which has seen BTS in the last five and the last two here in Bragantino and the reverse fixture this season all finish with the same 2-1 scoreline, we have to expect goals.

 

 

Key stats: Bragantino have conceded a Serie A high 23 goals in the final third of games ( after the 61st minute) with a 13-23 goal difference.No team has scored more goals after the 76th minute than CAM (13). Visitors late will be of great interest, doubly so if they are chasing the game or the win.

 

 

Good luck!